Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

More documents

Recommendations

Info

level, 20.0% curtailment, will give an indication of a curtailment level, whichwill significantly influence the economic feasibility of wind power.Forecast errorsAccurate forecast important…Forecasting wind power as accurately as possible is important to wind powerproducers bidding in their production in an electricity market as well as to thesystem operator.for wind power producersIn a market based setup the wind power producers will normally pay for thecosts of balancing the wind power (the cost of providing balancing power).Therefore the more accurate the forecast of wind power the lower will thebalancing costs be to wind power producers. From a socio-economic perspectivebetter forecasting will reduce the total generation costs due to more optimaldispatch of power plants.and for the system operatorFrom a system operator point-of-view forecasting can be important to determinethe amount of reserves needed in the system during the coming day.Moreover, during the course of operation forecasting is important to the systemcontrol-centre to prepare the system for changes in wind power generationin the short-term horizon.Reserves to cover forecasterrorsDue to the uncertainty of the forecasts of the wind power production (and theload) it might be necessary to have additional reserves available to cover theforecast errors. In this study focus is on forecast up to 24 hours before theoperational hour and the need for reserves to cover forecast errors.Up-regulating anddown-regulatingTwo different situations are analysed. In a situation where the actual windpower production is less than the forecasted production, up-regulating reserveswill be activated. In a situation where the actual wind power productionis bigger than the forecasted production, down-regulating reserves areneeded.Up-regulating reserves would typically be units which are running below theirmaximum production or import on interconnectors. The possibilities for usinggenerating units or interconnectors for up-regulation (or down-regulation)depend on how their operation has been scheduled in the day-ahead market.In some situations new units have to be started up before the operating hourin order to ensure sufficient reserve capacity to cover for forecast errors.10 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Down-regulating reserves would typically be units operating above theirminimum production and interconnectors with possibility to reduce import orto increase export. But also wind power units would be able to act as downregulatingreserves by curtailing the production from the wind power plants.The “optimal” level of reserves will depend on the operational status of thepower system, including the demand for electricity, the availability of interconnectionsand which generators are operating.To the extent that forecast errors require special measures for ensuring reserves,the cost of these measures are estimated.1.2 ScenariosThe flexibility of the electricity system and the dependency of interconnectorsbetween Estonia and the neighbouring countries are illustrated with differentscenarios as illustrated in Figure 1.The Limited Market scenario and the Estonian Flexibility scenario are analysedin 2013 and 2016, while the Market Flexibility only is analysed in 2016. Themain difference between the two years is the interconnector between Finlandand Estonia. Today the connection, Estlink 1, has a capacity of 350 MW. A newinterconnector, Estlink 2, is planned to be in operation in 2014 with a capacityof 650 MW.Limited Market•Estlink used on market conditions•Connectors to Russian and Latvia run according to rules forsystem operation – not market based•500 MWh/h fixed import from Russia to the Baltic StatesEstonian flexibility•Estlink used on market conditions•Connectors to Russian and Latvia run according to rules forsystem operation – not market based•500 MWh/h fixed import from Russia to the Baltic States•400 MW gas turbine in Estonia for balancing purposeMarket flexibility•All interconnectors are used on market conditions•No fixed import from Russia•No additional gas turbine in EstoniaFigure 1: Overview of scenariosBesides the main scenarios, a number of sensitivity analyses are carried out,illustrating the consequences of the NordBalt interconnector between Lithua-11 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Page 1 and 2: Wind Power in EstoniaAn analysis of
Page 3 and 4: Eleringi kommentaarid uuringu tulem
Page 5 and 6: Tuulestsenaariume Põhjamaades ei o
Page 7 and 8: 6.2 Costs calculated on the basis o
Page 9: Other aspects regarding wind power
Page 13 and 14: Electricity pricesIncreasing possib
Page 15 and 16: 1.4 RecommendationsBased on the ana
Page 17 and 18: 3 The Estonian Power system3.1 Elec
Page 19 and 20: Customers with consumption over 2 G
Page 21 and 22: 4 Scenarios for wind power integrat
Page 23 and 24: Finally, a third scenario, Market f
Page 25 and 26: power. Estlink 1 allows for a more
Page 27 and 28: 6050403020900 MW1800 MW100Limited M
Page 29 and 30: 29 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2
Page 31 and 32: The Estonian system’s grid code a
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Wind generation (blue) a
Page 35 and 36: It should be reminded that this res
Page 37 and 38: pictured above. This would just req
Page 39 and 40: 12753791051311571832092352612873133
Page 41 and 42: flated in relation to possible acti
Page 43 and 44: ity scenario are very similar regar
Page 45 and 46: With the current regulatory framewo

Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?