Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

More documents

Recommendations

Info

nia and Sweden, and illustrating the consequences of differences in hydropower production in Latvia.Limits due to forecasterrors1.3 Results of the studyThe analyses in the study show that forecast errors are not likely to implytechnical constraints on the level of wind power capacity in Estonia, but theycreate costs in order to ensure sufficient reserves to cover for less wind powerproduction than expected or costs to curtail wind power if wind power productionare bigger than expected and no other measures are available. Withthe current regulatory framework in Estonia it might be difficult or even impossiblefor Elering OÜ to cover these additional costs by letting the windpower producer pay or by an increase in the system tariffs. If no extraordinarybalancing costs are allowed the maximum wind power capacity in the Estoniansystem would be around 600 MW with Estlink 1 in operation.Limits due to curtailmentIf (reasonable) balancing cost is not a problem, the amount of curtailmentcould be a guideline for the maximum wind power capacity in Estonia. Usingcurtailment levels of 0.1%, 5% and 20% of the annual wind power productionthe result of the scenario analyses are summarised in Table 1.Table 1: Maximum wind power capacity in Estonia with different levels of curtailmentand with different capacity of the interconnector between Estonia and Finland.With Estlink 1 With Estlink 1 and 2Normal Dry year Wet year NordBalt0.1% 575 MW 1100 MW 1050 MW 900 MW 850 MW5.0% 1250 MW 2050 MW 2150 MW 2100 MW 2175 MW20% 2000 MW 3200 MW 3300 MW 3200 MW 3400 MWCost of covering forecasterrorsThe cost of balancing load and wind power forecast errors is calculated to 4.4to 4.8 EUR/MWh wind power production.New flexible unitsThe consequences of investments in new flexible new power units (gas turbines)on the amount of curtailment has been analysed as part of the scenarioanalyses. The analyses show that such an investment cannot be justified froma curtailment point of view. A new flexible unit could however be part of astrategy for covering the need for reserves for forecast errors.12 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Electricity pricesIncreasing possible supply of wind power depresses wholesale electricityprices. With increased wind power the short-run operating costs of windpower is more frequently marginal in the market. Increased wind power alsoleads to more frequent price differences resulting from increased congestionas high levels of local wind power generation are transmitted to where it candisplace the dearest form of generation. Conversely, at times of short termlow levels of wind generation, it may be preferable to import instead ratherthan commit thermal units incurring commitment costs. These two effectsincrease bottlenecks in the system and therefore also the marginal benefit oftransmission capacity, trade and well functioning markets.The Market Flexibility scenario has both the highest levels of electricity prices(marginal short-run generation costs) and the lowest average regional variations.This implies that economical wind power generation is facilitated by anefficient and coordinated approach to transmission access and to unit dispatch.Wind power and electricitymarketsThe development of efficient electricity markets will benefit the integration ofwind power in the system. The analyses is carried out with the assumptionthat the interconnector between Estonia and Finland at least partly will beused according to market rules – an assumption which seems justified by theopening of the Nord Pool Estlink price area in April 2010. No market betweenRussia and the Baltic States is assumed, but the analyses show that a marketbased flow between Russia and the Baltic States will allow for more windpower in the Baltic States.Development of windpower in the BalticStatesBesides the curtailment of wind power production in Estonia, the curtailmentin the Baltic States as a whole has been analysed. A symmetric developmentof wind power has been assumed for all three Baltic countries in the scenarios,i.e. the 900 MW level means 900 MW in Estonia, 900 MW in Latvia, and900 MW in Lithuania. Similar for the 1800 MW level: 1800 MW in each of thethree countries. In the surrounding countries assumptions on wind powerdevelopment have been made based on existing plans.The analyses show a similar trend to the curtailment in the Baltic States as awhole as in Estonia alone. However the curtailment is generally higher for theBaltic States as a whole than for Estonia alone. These results give preliminaryindication that Estonia is able to effectively integrate more wind power thanLatvia and Lithuania respectively. In the scenarios for 2013, without Estlink 2,the level of curtailment in Estonia and the Baltic States as a whole are similar.13 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Page 1 and 2: Wind Power in EstoniaAn analysis of
Page 3 and 4: Eleringi kommentaarid uuringu tulem
Page 5 and 6: Tuulestsenaariume Põhjamaades ei o
Page 7 and 8: 6.2 Costs calculated on the basis o
Page 9 and 10: Other aspects regarding wind power
Page 11: Down-regulating reserves would typi
Page 15 and 16: 1.4 RecommendationsBased on the ana
Page 17 and 18: 3 The Estonian Power system3.1 Elec
Page 19 and 20: Customers with consumption over 2 G
Page 21 and 22: 4 Scenarios for wind power integrat
Page 23 and 24: Finally, a third scenario, Market f
Page 25 and 26: power. Estlink 1 allows for a more
Page 27 and 28: 6050403020900 MW1800 MW100Limited M
Page 29 and 30: 29 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2
Page 31 and 32: The Estonian system’s grid code a
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Wind generation (blue) a
Page 35 and 36: It should be reminded that this res
Page 37 and 38: pictured above. This would just req
Page 39 and 40: 12753791051311571832092352612873133
Page 41 and 42: flated in relation to possible acti
Page 43 and 44: ity scenario are very similar regar
Page 45 and 46: With the current regulatory framewo

Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?