Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

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To estimate the forecast errors of wind production in the two scenarios theexperience from the German and Danish wind forecast data is used.The table below shows the subsequent requirement for reserves to deal withthe wind forecast error in the cases with either 900 or 1800 MW wind (usingthe three times standard deviation method).Year Wind 0 – 20% 20 – 40% 40 – 60% 60 – 80% 80 – 100%2013 900 MW 162 270 243 189 542016 1800 MW 216 324 270 324 162Table 4: Requirement for reserves to deal with the wind forecast error in the caseswith either 900 or 1800 MW wind. Calculated as a function of the wind power outputTwo different situations are analysed. In a situation where the actual windpower production is less than the forecasted production, up-regulating reserveswill be activated. In a situation where the actual wind power productionis bigger than the forecasted production, down-regulating reserves areneeded.Up-regulating reserves would typically be units which are running below theirmaximum production or interconnectors with possibility for more import orreduced export. In some situations new units have to be started up before theoperating hour in order to ensure sufficient reserve capacity to cover for forecasterrors.Down-regulating reserves would typically be units operating above theirminimum production and interconnectors with possibility to reduce import orto increase export. But also wind power units would be able to act as downregulatingreserves by curtailing the production from the wind power plants.The “optimal” level of reserves will depend on the operational status of thepower system, including the demand for electricity, the availability of interconnectionsand which generators are operating.Using the load and wind time series from the Balmorel simulations for 2013and 2016, it is possible to calculate the reserves required for each hour. Anexample for 2013 (900 MW wind) is shown in Figure 11.32 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Figure 11: Wind generation (blue) and Reserve requirement (red) time seriesfor a 2013 (the 600 first hours of the year), 900 MW wind Estonia scenario.The figures concern only the requirements for up-regulation (lower windpower production than forecasted). The reserves cover both forecast errors inload and in wind power production.5.2 Available load following reserve capacity for up-regulationThe next step is to compare the requirement for reserves with the availableload following capacity (up-regulation) in the system.By this we mean the assigned capacity leftover by the simulation tool (Balmorel),i.e. the total unused capacity of the power plants that operate in theEstonian system and can be ramped up within an hour according to the optimizationsolution. This includes possibilities for importing power at Estlink 1, ifthe interconnector is not already fully utilized for import.The interconnections to Russia and the other Baltic States have been not consideredin the analyses, as Elering considers them inflexible and unavailable toprovide regulating capacity in times of emergency (apart from existing agreementsto deal with n-1 situations). However future agreements could augmenttheir role in reserve planning.900 MW in 2013In Figure 12, the load following capacity reserves identified by the 3σ methodare deducted from the BALMOREL leftover capacity that can be ramped upwithin at most one hour.33 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Page 1 and 2: Wind Power in EstoniaAn analysis of
Page 3 and 4: Eleringi kommentaarid uuringu tulem
Page 5 and 6: Tuulestsenaariume Põhjamaades ei o
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Page 9 and 10: Other aspects regarding wind power
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Page 13 and 14: Electricity pricesIncreasing possib
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Page 25 and 26: power. Estlink 1 allows for a more
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Page 41 and 42: flated in relation to possible acti
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Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

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