Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

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The figure illustrates that also in 2016 there are a few occasions, when theEstlink 2 connection is committed for full import, where the load followingcapacity is not sufficient.If a 400 MW gas turbine with a start up time of 10 minutes (and 10 minutesfurther to reach full capacity) is build, there will be sufficient load followingcapacity available in all stages of operation.However it should be noted that the size of that power plant may be excessiveand unnecessary and that a smaller gas based power plant would have sufficienteffect.5.3 Down regulation reservesThe next inquiry is on the effect of wind on down regulation. The same 1800MW scenario will be examined. Unlike up-regulation, down-regulation doesnot require starting-up power plants and can be performed a lot closer to theevent horizon. To account for the fact that down regulation can happen a lotcloser to the event horizon, the reserve requirements calculated using the 1-hour variability of wind instead of the forecast error’s standard deviation foreach interval of wind power (in effect assuming a 1 hour ahead persistenceforecast). The calculations result in the duration curve of the net down regulationreserves.Figure 15: Duration Curve of the net down regulation reserves (BALMOREL reservesminus reserves calculated by the 3σ method for the hourly wind variability)It should be taken into considerations that it is possible for wind turbines tocontribute to down-regulation, a prospect that is not included in the graphs36 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
pictured above. This would just require the down-regulation of wind to thelevels that the forecast predicted would be suitable.5.4 Measures to increase load following capacityThe general conclusion of the analyses of the importance of load and windpower forecast errors in relation to the amount of load following reserves isthat only in few hours additional reserve capacity is needed for up-regulation.Down regulation reserves are needed in more than half of the year, but downregulationdo not require start up of units and can be performed much closerto the operating hour. Wind turbines could contribute to the down-regulationin a dynamic way.A variety of different measures to improve the situation regarding upregulatingcould be considered:1. The probability of a large wind/load variation occurring could betreated as a contingency event, which could be handled with contingencyreserves; a method applied by the Danish TSO, Energinet.dk.This would however imply a relaxation of the current security of supplystandards.2. Developing a common market for reserves between the Baltic countriesand if possible Russia. In the longer term with the opening of Estlink2and NordBalt such a market could be linked to the Nordic regulationpower market..3. The possibilities for import on Estlink in the day-ahead market couldbe limited when forecast indicate a need for reserve capacity (as updatedinformation about forecast is available closer to the hour of operationthis constraint could be released and the import possibility bemade available for intraday trading).This is not possible according tocurrent EU regulation.4. Existing units could be required to start up to be available to providereserve capacity.5. New units (e.g. gas turbines) with short start-up time could be acquired.6. In the longer term perspective it will be relevant to explore the possibilitiesfor obtaining ancillary services – including up-regulation - fromthe demand side as part of a smart grid strategy. Electric heat pumpsat consumers and electric vehicles or plug-in vehicles are examples oftechnologies, which may hold a significant potential in the comingdecaded37 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Page 1 and 2: Wind Power in EstoniaAn analysis of
Page 3 and 4: Eleringi kommentaarid uuringu tulem
Page 5 and 6: Tuulestsenaariume Põhjamaades ei o
Page 7 and 8: 6.2 Costs calculated on the basis o
Page 9 and 10: Other aspects regarding wind power
Page 11 and 12: Down-regulating reserves would typi
Page 13 and 14: Electricity pricesIncreasing possib
Page 15 and 16: 1.4 RecommendationsBased on the ana
Page 17 and 18: 3 The Estonian Power system3.1 Elec
Page 19 and 20: Customers with consumption over 2 G
Page 21 and 22: 4 Scenarios for wind power integrat
Page 23 and 24: Finally, a third scenario, Market f
Page 25 and 26: power. Estlink 1 allows for a more
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Page 31 and 32: The Estonian system’s grid code a
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Wind generation (blue) a
Page 35: It should be reminded that this res
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Page 41 and 42: flated in relation to possible acti
Page 43 and 44: ity scenario are very similar regar
Page 45 and 46: With the current regulatory framewo

Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

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