Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

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Figure 12: BALMOREL leftover capacity minus reserves calculated by the 3σ method,Estonia 2013-900 MW wind scenario.Figure 13 shows the duration Curve of the net reserves (BALMOREL reservesminus reserves calculated by the 3σ method) for all hours in the 2013 scenario.Figure 13: Duration Curve of the net reserves (BALMOREL reserves minus reservescalculated by the 3σ method)The figures for 2013 with 900 MW show that for most cases, further resourceallocation is not actually required since there is sufficient backup capacityavailable within an hour to cover any unexpected fluctuations. However thereare cases where reserves are lacking and this could be worrying. The Estonianunits are on average slow to start up and unless they are committed already,fluctuations that are big could unbalance the system.34 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
It should be reminded that this reserve calculation is meant to cover 99.7% ofpossible outcomes and in combination with the low amount of hours for,which reserves are not enough, means that an unbalance is not very likely.Furthermore, the forecast error calculations are based on a 12-36 hour aheadprediction. If the time window is narrowed down to one hour, forecast errorsare reduced drastically and the standard deviation of the net load is not expectedto vary as much, reducing reserve requirements.1800 MW wind in 2016In 2016, the addition of a second interconnection line (Estlink 2) to Finlandgives the potential to transmit almost instantaneously 1000 MW of power,compared to 350 MW for 2013.The inclusion of Estlink 2 will however in some periods also lead to an increaseof the contingency reserve, since n-1 will need to cover now the size of Estlink2, if it is operated with full import to Estonia.Figure 14 shows the net reserves for 2016 with 1800 MW installed windpower capacity.Figure 14: Net Reserves (BALMOREL unused capacity minus calculated need for reserves)for 2016, with and without a 400 MW gas turbine35 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2010
Page 1 and 2: Wind Power in EstoniaAn analysis of
Page 3 and 4: Eleringi kommentaarid uuringu tulem
Page 5 and 6: Tuulestsenaariume Põhjamaades ei o
Page 7 and 8: 6.2 Costs calculated on the basis o
Page 9 and 10: Other aspects regarding wind power
Page 11 and 12: Down-regulating reserves would typi
Page 13 and 14: Electricity pricesIncreasing possib
Page 15 and 16: 1.4 RecommendationsBased on the ana
Page 17 and 18: 3 The Estonian Power system3.1 Elec
Page 19 and 20: Customers with consumption over 2 G
Page 21 and 22: 4 Scenarios for wind power integrat
Page 23 and 24: Finally, a third scenario, Market f
Page 25 and 26: power. Estlink 1 allows for a more
Page 27 and 28: 6050403020900 MW1800 MW100Limited M
Page 29 and 30: 29 | Wind Power in Estonia, 13-05-2
Page 31 and 32: The Estonian system’s grid code a
Page 33: Figure 11: Wind generation (blue) a
Page 37 and 38: pictured above. This would just req
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Page 41 and 42: flated in relation to possible acti
Page 43 and 44: ity scenario are very similar regar
Page 45 and 46: With the current regulatory framewo

Wind Power in Estonia - Elering

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