Energy and Transport.pdf - Richmond School District No. 38

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SeriesSee Online for webappendix 1active transport. The economic cost of congestion is over3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in many cities, withmotor-vehicle speeds often slower than those by bike. 50Road-traffic crashes cost developing countries about1–2% of GDP each year. The victims of road-trafficcrashes are often young adults whose families depend ontheir earnings. In some cities, air pollution imposesmajor costs in lost productivity and health-careexpenditure. The consequences of physical inactivity aremajor burdens on health-care resources, with the cost ofobesity in the USA estimated at around US$139 billionper year. 51Transfer payments from states and internationalinstitutions to automobile manufacturers and fossil-fuelcorporations are not a resource use but a transfer thatcould limit the resources available for health expenditure.Subsidies paid to car manufacturers to keep or attractjobs are common—eg, in January, 2007, the state ofMichigan paid Ford $155 million. According to theSustainable Energy and Economy Network, the WorldBank approved payments, guarantees, and loans worth$10·7 billion to extraction projects for oil, coal, and gasbetween 1992 and 2004. 52Environmental sustainabilityEnsuring environmental sustainability is the seventhMillennium Development Goal (MDG; webappendix 1).Sustainability has been defined as meeting the needs ofthe present generation without compromising the abilityof future generations to meet their own needs. Thisdefinition is interpreted in two main ways. Proponents ofthe weaker version argue that manufactured capital cantake the place of natural capital, so it is the combinedtotal capital stock of both that needs to be maintained orenhanced. The stronger interpretation recognises thatthe functions of natural systems cannot be substituted bymanufactured goods and so natural systems themselvesneed to be maintained or enhanced.Climate change is occurring in the context of increasedanthropogenic stress across a range of natural systems,including stratospheric ozone depletion, loss ofbiodiversity, spread of invasive species, exhaustion ofwild fisheries, and the depletion of freshwater supplies. 53In addition to its own resource use, transport facilitatesthe exploitation of other resources. From a climate-changeperspective the most important effect is opening up areasto deforestation. Through increasing the demands onour environment’s carrying capacity—a capacity notknown in advance—energy-intensive transport reducesits human-carrying capacity.Oil and energy securityOil dominates transport energy use; ensuring supply is adriver of international policy. The potential for increasingsupply is a hotly debated issue. As conventional oilsupplies run down, lower-grade oil supplies with highercost and greater effect on the environment will becomefinancially viable. This would mean rising prices andcould put transport in conflict with production of plastics,fertilisers and drugs, and other energy demands, hittingthose least able to pay. However, the greatest health effectof oil dependency is in countries highly dependent on oilexports. On average these countries have worse healthoutcomes than other countries at similar levels ofeconomic development, 54 an event known as Dutchdisease, and are at greater risk of armed conflict. 55Economic growth and social developmentAccording to the IPCC, reducing transport emissions isdifficult because of the role that passenger and freighttravel have in social and economic development, andbecause emission-reduction strategies often challengethe interests of the many transport stakeholders. Inwebappendix 1 we investigate the role of transport inachieving the MDGs.Transport allows for a global division of labour andsome believe transport investment has a privileged rolein economic growth. Although higher per-head GDP isassociated with better health in low-income andmiddle-income countries, there is little correlation inwealthy countries. 56 Air travel is the most energy-intensiveform of freight transport, followed by road, then rail andsea. Freight transport is growing faster than economicgrowth. The falling cost of transport by sea, air, and landcombined with just-in-time production systems haveencouraged development of global supply chains that seeproducts transported many times between raw materialsand final disposal. A 2001 European White Paperdescribes transport networks as the lifeblood ofcompetitiveness. 57 However, the UK Advisory Committeeon Trunk Road Assessment found that transportcost-reduction had only a small contribution to economicgrowth and productivity, and countries belonging to theOrganisation for Economic Cooperation and Developmenthave large variability in their transport-resource use. 58Moreover, recent research has highlighted how poorhealth can restrict economic growth. 59It is important to consider the developmental effects oftransport expenditure separately from the resourcestransport itself consumes. Choice of transportationsystem offers different pathways to social development.The achievement of sustainable transport will requiredecoupling social development and transport energy andresource use.Freight and food milesAlthough attention on the effect of climate change onagriculture has focused on food miles, the totalcontribution of bovine emissions of methane issubstantially greater. Passenger travel is related to freightbecause most air freight is carried in the hold of passengeraeroplanes. Popular debate often singles out food freight.However, there is greater natural basis for regionalspecialisation with food than manufacturing. Moreover,6 www.thelancet.com Published online September 13, 2007 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61254-9
Seriesgrowing vegetables in heated greenhouses can consumemore energy than transporting them from warmercountries. Locally grown seasonal vegetables are the mostenergy efficient. The role of providing an increased rangeof non-seasonal vegetables and fruit in the reduction inthe rates of cardiovascular disease in developed countriesis an area for further research and could indicate a healthbenefit from some food miles. However, attention has tobe given to the local effects of export crops on incomes,the nutrient cycle, water supplies, food prices, and landuse.Transmission of infectious diseasesThe movement of populations and livestock shapes thepatterns and distribution of infectious diseases. 60,61Reducing the spread of HIV and malaria is one of theMDGs. One method of transmission that has receivedattention is the role of truck drivers in HIV transmission(webappendix 1). African on-road settlements have anincreased risk of injuries and greater risk of HIVcompared with off-road settlements. 62 People on lowincomes who live on these corridors have strong incentiveto engage in unsafe sexual activity. Climate change isexpected to increase the range and seasons for malaria.Aviation also facilitates the rapid spread of infectiousdiseases, especially for emerging infections. 60AviationApart from its climate forcing, aviation is not associatedwith as large direct co-harms as road transport. However,airports are usually out of town and can increase roadtraffic, with its associated harms. Furthermore, claims ofthe importance of aviation to economic growth andemployment are often overstated. There is considerableinternational variation in flights per head at similarincome levels, with the UK well above the Europeantrend line. The effect of investment in aviation is oftennot compared with the opportunity lost to invest in otherareas, which could provide greater employment andsimilar economic returns. 10 Another argument raised insupport of aviation is the economic dependence ontourism in developing countries. However, three-quartersof all UK passenger flights are within Europe, 10 with onlya small proportion to developing countries. Althoughthere will be beneficial effects in some areas, these arenot likely to be large compared with the unequal effectsof climate change.Benefits from energy intensive transportAccording to the Stern report on the economics of climatechange, commissioned by the UK Government, thewelfare costs of reducing demand for transport is high. 64However, travel behaviour might be more amenable tochange than most models assume. A systematic reviewof case studies found that closing roads to car traffic didnot cause a corresponding increase on alternative routes. 65These models often assume that a given destinationprovides a set welfare benefit to the traveller and the timeto get there is a cost. However, over time, changes intransport infrastructure alter the nature and perceivedbenefits of destinations. Furthermore, vehicle ownershipand distant holidays often function as status symbols,reducing any net benefit. 66There are areas in which motor vehicles and aviationprovide health benefits. For example, in many settingsmotor vehicles are central to the operation of health care.However, these modes are able to provide greatest benefitto society if allocated more sparingly and wisely.There are strong links between the use of fossil fuelsfor energy and physical inactivity, air pollution, andinjuries. These health problems account for a substantialglobal disease burden and contribute to healthinequalities. An integrated assessment of the health andenvironmental effects of alternative transport is needed.Low carbon and healthy transportThere are four main strategies for moving to low-carbontransport while at the same time improving access andequity: avoiding trips; increasing energy efficiency andalternative energy sources; shortening trip distances; andchanging travel modes. We look at the effect of thesestrategies on greenhouse-gas emissions and health inLondon in webappendices 2 and 3.Avoiding vehicle tripsInformation and communication technologies—eg,teleconferencing—can replace trips with electroniccommunication. The rapid development and proliferationof these technologies have transformed societies. Mobilephones offer a low-energy means of communication, andvideo-conferencing, email, and the internet have a largepotential for replacing physical energy-intensivemovement. Within health care there have been calls touse information technology to reduce flights by doctors. 67For freight, internet-based systems can match up sparevehicle capacity and freight needs. 68 However, the effectof such measures is complex and recent research 69 foundthat information and communication technologies areunlikely to have large effects on their own. Althoughsome trips will be substituted, others will be generated orreplaced by fewer longer distance trips. Unless theassociation between economic growth andenergy-intensive mobility is altered, high-energytransport will continue to increase. Other means forreducing vehicle trips include increasing vehicleoccupancy and trip chaining, where one round tripreplaces several trips.Increasing energy efficiency and alternative energysourcesImproved engine design and changes in fuel source areimportant for reducing emissions. However, althoughtechnological solutions are attractive, their developmentand widespread adoption is problematic, particularly forSee Online for webappendices 2and 3www.thelancet.com Published online September 13, 2007 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61254-9 7
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