Previous Page | Contents | <strong>Zoom</strong> in | <strong>Zoom</strong> out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next PageABE FMaGSshow report | STRATEGIES IN LIGHTLutron showcased its Hi-lume LED driver, a universal-voltage dimmingdriver that provides LED dimming from 100% to 1% of total light output.The driver can be used in meeting rooms, corridors, restaurants, hotels,and many other areas where dimming performance and energy effi ciencyare valued.time the overall market has declined sinceStrategies Unlimited started to publish dataon the HB-LED market in 1999.Steele gave a historical perspective onthe HB-LED market, which was a mere $820million in 1999. Between 1999 and 2008, saidSteele, the HB-LED market grew by a factorof 6.2, reaching $5.1 billion last year. Yearon-yeargrowth has varied dramatically;approximately 50% growth in 2000, 2002and 2003 was driven by strong demand inthe mobile phone market, but in betweenthe market saw virtually zero growth in2001 as the tech sector went into recession.The growth rate dropped to below 10%in 2005, but has since risen gradually, andin 2008 the market increased by 11% comparedwith 2007. However, the fourth quarterof 2008 showed signs of market deterioration,particularly in the automotive lightingand mobile phone sectors.Unit sales of LEDs grew by more than 25%in 2008, reaching 48 billion units. Mobileappliances remained the largest application,with 43% of the overall market, comparedwith 9% for lighting (see Fig. 2). Themobile appliances sector showed the firstpositive growth (8.3%) since 2004 becauseof the growth in non-phoneproducts (smartphones, MP3players, laptop PCs, GPS, digitalcameras). Not surprisingly,the highest growth sectorwas lighting, up 39% over2007, although the sector onlyreached $460 million.Looking forward, saidSteele, the “negative economicenvironment and bleak outlookfor many LED end-usesectors indicate a lower marketin 2009.” Visibility is verylimited, and conditions couldworsen. “Recovery could bedelayed beyond 2010,” saidSteele. “The only ‘bright spots’are backlights for LCD TVs,and of course lighting.”Steele expects the penetration of LEDsinto the lighting market to continue into2009, but with a lower growth rate of 17%,compared with the level of 35% that wasforecast previously. <strong>In</strong> the longer term, thereis a positive outlook for the lighting sector,and Steele said that the market will get backon track, following the economic recovery.The prediction that the overall market willdecline by 5% in 2009 includes a conservativeforecast for growth in LCD TV backlights.This is the most uncertain of all LEDapplication sectors; when this application isexcluded, the remainder of the HB-LED marketwill shrink by 10% in 2009.Looking further out, Steele expects growthto resume in 2010, assuming the economyas a whole recovers. Between 2008 and 2013,the compound average annual growth rateis predicted to be 19.3%, with the marketreaching $12.4 billion in 2013.Illuminating consumer preferenceLED market penetration for lighting applicationsremains small and highly fragmentedinto numerous application niches, said BobSteele, and architectural lighting at 43% ofthe lighting market represents the largestniche. But the highest growth applicationsin 2008 (cumulatively accounting for 16% ofthe SSL market) were outdoor area, replacementlamps, commercial/industrial andentertainment.Numerous technology improvements duringthe last decade have contributed to therapid growth of LEDs in the lighting market,including development of high-power LEDs;increased luminous efficacy by a factor of6.7 for cool-white LEDs; and introductionof warmer whites mid-decade, which havedoubled in luminous efficacy since 2004,Steele said. And most of the major solidstate-lightingplayers have 100-lumen productson the market. As a result, the industryfocus is shifting away from technologicalissues such as achieving higher light outputand increased efficiency, to customer satisfactionissues, said Erik Milz, strategicmarketing manager with Philips Lumileds.These include the quality and uniformityof white light, the elimination of binning,enabling simplified system design, phosphorsystems, forward voltage and supply chainsafety (reliability).The three primary LED aspects to consider— flux, forward voltage and color — createa 3-dimensional (3-D) binning matrix, whilethe lamp matrix for luminaire manufacturersincludes factors such as shape, direction,style, warm or cool coloration, and power.CCFLs took a step towards improving energyefficiency and also simplifying the matrix,Milz said. But, except for places like Californiawhere government support encouragestheir use, CCFLs remain a small, single-digitpercentage of the market becauselighting performance is not predictable, orperhaps predictably unpleasing: “We don’twant solid state lighting to make the samemistake,” he said.Outdoor area lightsPerhaps nowhere is the story more dramaticallytold than in beleaguered municipalitiestrying to keep their street lightson during hard economic times. George16 APRIL 2009 LEDsmagazine.comPrevious Page | Contents | <strong>Zoom</strong> in | <strong>Zoom</strong> out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next PageABE FMaGS
Previous Page | Contents | <strong>Zoom</strong> in | <strong>Zoom</strong> out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next PageABE FMaGS________________________________Previous Page | Contents | <strong>Zoom</strong> in | <strong>Zoom</strong> out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next PageABE FMaGS
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