DAVID J. ZIOLKOWSKI JR., KEITH L. PARDIECK AND JOHN R. SAUERROBBINS, C.S., D. BYSTRAK, AND P.H. GEISSLER. 1986. TheBreeding Bird Survey: its first fifteen years, 1965-1979. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ResourcePublication157.ROPELEWSKI, C., AND M. HALPERT. 1986. NorthAmerican Precipitation and Temperature PatternsAssociated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Monthly Weather Review114: 2352–2362.SAUER, J. R., J. E. FALLON, AND R. JOHNSON. 2003. Use ofNorth American Breeding Bird Survey Data toestimate population change for bird conservationregions. Journal of Wildlife Management 67:372-389.SAUER, J. R., AND W. A. LINK. 2002. Hierarchicalmodeling of population stability and species groupattributes using Markov Chain Monte Carlomethods. Ecology 83:1743-1751.SAUER, J. R., AND W. A. LINK. 2010. Analysis of theNorth American Breeding Bird Survey usinghierarchical models. Auk In Press.SILLETT, T.S., R.T. HOLMES, AND T.W. SHERRY. 2000.Impacts of global climate cycle on populationsdynamics of migratory songbird. Science 288: 2040-2042.WALLACE, J.M., AND D.S. GUTZLER. 1981. Teleconnectionsin the geopotential height field duringthe Northern Hemisphere winter. MonthlyWeather Review 109:784–812.[100]
NORTH AMERICAN BREEDING <strong>BIRD</strong> SURVEY 2003-2008APPENDIX 1.. Long-term (1966-2008) trends, 6-yr (2003-2008) trends, and 2-yr (2007-2008) trends for all speciesdetected on BBS routes, 1966-2008. For the three intervals, we present trend (average % change/y) and 95%credible (Bayesian confidence) intervals. Trend is considered significant (P < 0.05) if the credible interval does notinclude zero (indicated by *). For the long-term trends, sample size (N of routes) and TQ-values are also provided.Species names based on AOU (1998).1966-2008––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––2003-2008––––––––––—–––––2007-2008––––––––––—–––––Credible Credible CredibleSpecies TQ N Trend Interval Trend Interval Trend IntervalBlack-bellied Whistling-Duck 2 101 7.9 * 3.7, 11.6 15.9 * 5.0, 27.6 80.7 * 24.8, 187.4Fulvous Whistling-Duck 2 43 2.6 -2.1, 7.1 12.2 * 1.3, 29.2 24.0 -26.0, 158.5Canada Goose 2 2585 11.8 * 9.3, 16.5 14.4 * 7.3, 24.1 16.9 -11.0, 77.0Mute Swan 3 93 4.1 -0.8, 10.1 5.2 -13.4, 40.5 8.9 -62.3, 346.0Wood Duck 2 2117 2.8 -0.1, 3.6 5.0 * 2.0, 8.8 5.4 -7.8, 26.3Gadwall 1 703 2.6 * 1.5, 3.5 5.3 * 0.5, 10.6 2.4 -19.5, 27.4American Wigeon 1 547 -3.5 * -5.4, -2.3 -1.6 -5.8, 2.9 -19.2 -38.4, 1.5American Black Duck 2 548 0.3 -2.3, 3.2 1.0 -4.9, 7.9 2.2 -25.8, 39.4Mallard 1 3146 -0.1 -0.9, 0.6 1.4 -1.3, 4.2 2.0 -10.7, 15.8Mottled Duck 1 107 -3.3 * -5.2, -1.3 -1.5 -8.0, 4.6 0.8 -29.0, 33.0Blue-winged Teal 3 1211 -0.3 -20.7, 1.0 6.0 -0.1, 13.2 -13.3 -35.1, 16.3Cinnamon Teal 3 465 -2.3 * -21.5, -0.5 0.1 -8.2, 8.5 -14.7 -55.7, 23.5Northern Shoveler 1 640 1.2 -0.9, 2.5 6.4 -0.3, 13.8 -18.0 -43.0, 14.8Northern Pintail 1 719 -3.5 * -6.3, -1.1 -2.3 -11.1, 12.2 -35.1 -61.0, 28.2Green-winged Teal 2 759 -0.4 -2.3, 1.1 2.9 -3.4, 13.3 9.0 -25.5, 73.6Canvasback 3 280 -1.2 -12.4, 1.4 0.9 -8.5, 14.2 -11.4 -53.5, 66.3Redhead 2 417 -0.4 -4.4, 1.7 2.2 -6.2, 13.0 -12.6 -47.5, 34.0Ring-necked Duck 3 445 3.6 -1.9, 8.9 9.3 * 2.5, 18.9 0.3 -54.8, 42.8Lesser Scaup 2 470 -3.0 * -8.0, -1.0 1.4 -7.6, 10.5 -4.9 -38.3, 54.2Bufflehead 2 225 2.6 -0.5, 4.5 5.0 * 0.2, 11.3 6.8 -16.2, 41.5Common Goldeneye 3 303 1.1 -10.1, 4.5 6.6 * 0.1, 16.3 17.2 -16.1, 78.9Barrow's Goldeneye 2 95 -1.6 -4.7, 0.7 -0.1 -7.5, 9.7 -3.5 -41.4, 37.2Hooded Merganser 3 376 5.2 * 0.5, 8.5 6.6 -3.2, 13.6 5.3 -32.4, 43.0Common Merganser 3 821 -1.0 -10.1, 1.1 2.0 -1.3, 7.1 3.1 -12.3, 31.5Red-breasted Merganser 3 75 -6.3 -27.7, 2.6 3.4 -19.2, 46.3 3.5 -83.0, 448.4Ruddy Duck 2 429 0.5 -3.0, 3.4 3.0 -6.9, 24.2 -1.9 -41.6, 141.3Chukar 2 163 0.2 -2.8, 2.4 0.5 -11.1, 11.0 -20.2 -58.3, 24.9Gray Partridge 2 434 -0.6 -2.5, 0.6 -0.2 -7.1, 6.2 -11.5 -48.3, 20.4Ring-necked Pheasant 1 1807 -0.2 -0.7, 0.3 1.9 -0.3, 4.2 5.9 -4.3, 16.9Ruffed Grouse 2 1166 1.0 -0.7, 2.4 5.1 -0.2, 11.3 5.2 -21.2, 38.6Sage Grouse 2 149 -3.9 * -7.7, -1.0 -0.3 -10.1, 12.4 -10.4 -57.0, 58.1Blue Grouse 2 230 -1.2 -2.6, 0.3 0.3 -3.6, 7.6 -1.1 -18.8, 31.5Sharp-tailed Grouse 2 292 -0.1 -2.5, 1.5 4.8 -1.6, 12.9 9.1 -56.9, 60.6Greater Prairie-Chicken 3 95 4.3 -1.0, 9.1 19.8 * 4.3, 56.0 41.6 -24.2, 393.6Wild Turkey 2 1963 9.1 * 7.6, 10.1 13.9 * 10.1, 17.6 19.6 * 4.0, 39.0Mountain Quail 1 180 -0.3 -2.1, 1.1 -8.3 * -13.7, -3.1 5.7 -17.2, 35.0Scaled Quail 1 206 -2.0 * -3.3, -0.9 -5.9 * -10.9, -0.7 -35.2 * -50.4, -15.7California Quail 1 418 1.2 * 0.3, 2.0 -2.2 -5.3, 1.0 7.4 -7.4, 24.5Gambel's Quail 3 143 0.0 -11.9, 1.6 -0.1 -4.9, 5.1 -9.0 -29.6, 18.3Northern Bobwhite 1 1912 -3.7 * -4.0, -3.5 -5.5 * -6.7, -4.3 -7.3 * -12.7, -1.4Common Loon 1 781 0.8 -0.6, 2.0 1.6 -0.3, 3.4 2.0 -6.1, 11.2Pied-billed Grebe 2 1025 -0.3 -3.3, 1.4 8.9 * 0.3, 18.8 -12.5 -42.6, 30.3Horned Grebe 2 172 -2.5 * -4.4, -0.8 -1.7 -10.1, 7.1 -14.9 -50.6, 24.5Red-necked Grebe 2 182 0.4 -1.0, 2.1 1.7 -2.1, 8.3 0.1 -22.2, 28.5[101]
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