The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

Factoring in current trends and policies20 We have identified and analysed four main areasof policy relevant to future student demand:p The government’s policies for 14- to 19-yearoldswhich aim to increase the proportion ofyoung people gaining level 3 qualifications andprogressing to higher education through theintroduction of diplomas and the requirementon young people to remain in education ortraining until the age of 18. The impact ofthese policies is uncertain but it should benoted that participation rates have scarcelyincreased since 2000. If these measures were,together, to achieve a three percentage pointincrease in participation in undergraduateeducation, the overall increase in entry wouldbe about 25,000 or 70,000 across all years,predominantly in full-time undergraduatenumbers.p The government’s decision to withdrawfunding for students studying for aqualification at an equivalent or lower level(ELQ) than one they already have willparticularly affect enrolments on part-timeundergraduate programmes by as much as40,000 students in total.p The trend for more young entrants to highereducation selecting to study part-time. This ismodest and from a low base. On currenttrends we would not expect a change of morethan about 3,000 students choosing part-timerather than full-time study over the nexttwenty years, particularly in the absence ofchanges in the pattern of student support.p The impact of the increasing level of studentloan debt on demand for postgraduate study.This could act as a disincentive to study atpostgraduate level immediately followinggraduation, but this effect is also likely to besmall, representing a reduction in demand forpostgraduate study from home students ofaround 5,000 a year.21 Outside of demographic factors we have notbeen able to identify any other current policies ordrivers of demand that are likely to lead tosignificant changes on their own.Scenario planning22 It is important to emphasise that scenarios aredevices for exploring a range of possible futuresin the context of significant uncertainties in keyareas. They are not forecasts of what willhappen.23 We used a two-stage process in developing thescenarios based on key uncertainties and drivers– a series of three seminars on key drivers ofdemand (funding for students and institutions;increased competition in student markets; andincreased employer engagement) and afacilitated scenario planning event based aroundaxes of uncertainty – essentially providing ameasure of the ranges of the key uncertainties.24 However, we also considered briefly, as iscustomary in scenario planning, the majorinternational and national developments thatcould have an enormous impact on the UKhigher education sector. These included climatechange, increased international terrorism, thebreak-up of the United Kingdom and theaccession of Turkey to the EU. All could have amajor impact on demand for higher education inthe UK, particularly on engagement withinternational student markets, but we judgedthat in the first instance these were issues andrisks for governments to manage rather than forinstitutions directly.25 The main conclusions from the seminar onfinance and funding issues were that over thetwenty year period:p in the face of increased competition for publicfunding (within generally less benigneconomic conditions than had been the case inrecent years) and in the absence of significantadditional funding from employers, anincreased contribution to the costs of highereducation would be expected from individuals– graduates and students from well-offfamilies – and these conditions were likely toapply across the whole of the UK. This shiftwas likely even with the possibility ofsuccessive changes of government;p higher education institutions faced asignificant challenge to manage performanceand secure long-term sustainability in the faceof increased staffing costs and pressures onincome;8