The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

193 These assessments of the level of enrolments onfull-time undergraduate programmes fromhome and EU students in 2026/27 under thedifferent scenarios are summarised in Table 13below.Table 13Summary of projected home andEU full-time undergraduateenrolments in the UK highereducation sector under differentscenarios in 2026/27ScenarioCentral demographic 1,132projectionRange incorporating key 1,054 – 1,162uncertainties (migration andchanging social mix)Range incorporating current 1, 132 – 1,202trends and policiesScenario 1 1,024 – 1,172Scenario 2 954 – 1,100Scenario 3 769 – 915Projected home and EU full-timeundergraduate enrolments (000s)194 These figures are presented as ranges toillustrate the most optimistic and pessimisticunder each scenario combining the impact of thescenario with the projected demographicchange.195 Within the scenarios (and more generally duringthe period of demographic decline) there arecertain to be differential impacts at individualsubject level and this could pose seriousdifficulties for those subjects which haveexperienced difficulties in recruitment in recentyears.Part-time undergraduates196 As noted in our first report, the part-timeundergraduate market is in fact a series ofmarkets – part-time first degrees, vocationalqualifications other than first degrees and nonvocationalsub-degree programmes. In thebaseline demographic projections we estimatedseparately numbers of part-time first degreeenrolments and part-time other undergraduatesand we have therefore followed that practice inassessing the implications of the three scenariosfor part-time undergraduate numbers.197 The baseline demographic-based projectionshows an increase in part-time first degreestudents of five per cent from 204,000 to 214,000over the twenty-year period with a slightly lowerincrease in part-time undergraduates studyingfor qualifications other than first degrees from385,400 to 403,500.198 The part-time undergraduate projections areless sensitive than the full-time projections touncertainties in migration rates and changingsocial class mix within the population. Part-timefirst degree numbers could be around 5,500lower and part-time other undergraduates16,400 lower under the changed assumptionsconsidered in section 4 above. On the other hand,part-time undergraduate numbers are likely tobe significantly affected by the government’sdecision to withdraw financial support fromstudents studying for qualifications at equivalentor lower level than a qualification they alreadyhold. However, this decline is likely to be offset tosome extent by the trend for more young peoplechoosing to study part-time rather than full-timeand by the efforts of institutions to anticipatedemographic change by entering new part-timeundergraduate markets. The net effect of thesefactors is that the baseline projectionoverestimates part-time first degree numbers by15,000 and part-time other undergraduatenumbers by 16,000 before taking account of anyimpact of the scenarios. All assume growth inpart-time undergraduate study.199 Scenario 1 assumes some acceleration in theshift of young entrants from full-time to parttimestudy. In line with the change in full-timeundergraduate enrolments under this scenariodiscussed above, the increase in part-timeundergraduate numbers would be 30,000assumed to be all within undergraduate firstdegree numbers.200 Scenario 2 assumes a modest shift from fulltimeto part-time study driven by increasedsponsorship of young people enteringemployment at the age of 18 and beingsponsored by their employers to undertakehigher education part-time. We assume that thisproduces an overall increase of 50,000 part-timeundergraduates split between first degree andother undergraduate programmes compared tothe baseline. It is also assumed that there is anincrease of a further 25,000 part-time otherundergraduate from people aged 60 and overseeking higher education. The overall impact isan increase of 25,000 part-time first degreestudents and 50,000 other undergraduatestudents compared to the baseline.44