The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

Sources of uncertainty74 There are two major sources of uncertainty inthe demographic-based student numberprojections:p the uncertainty in the projected rate of netinward migration; andp the social class mix of the relevantpopulations.75 The student number projections also assumethat migrants and their children will behave inthe same way as UK-born citizens in relation toparticipation in higher education. There is no wayof testing out this assumption in the short termand we have therefore assumed throughout thatthere will be no marked behavioural differencesbetween new migrants and others.Uncertainty in net inward migration76 As we noted in our first report, we started thisresearch using the 2004-based governmentprojections, but were in the event able to use thelatest 2006-based projections, published inOctober 2007, to complete the work. There aremarked differences between the two sets ofprojections. In particular, the 2006-based set ofprojections posits a much greater level of netinward migration to the UK year-by-year over theperiod in question than the 2004-based projections.Broadly, the 2006-based projections assume asteady state net inward migration rate of 190,000persons, compared with 145,000 in the 2004-basedprincipal projection. (It should be noted in passingthat the net inward migration rate also has aneffect on the assumed fertility rate, so that anyerror in this projection is potentially multiplied.)77 The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD)also publishes variant projections including onethat is based on a low migration assumption. Thatis based on a long-term assumption (2006-based)of net migration of only 130,000. We have thoughtit wise to consider a lower variant projection ofinward migration rates since it is not clear that UKpoliticians will be able to resist public pressure forstronger immigration controls indefinitely.Furthermore, much of the recent increase ininward migration is from countries admitted tothe EU since 2000 and that source of supply maydecline. Because we had already developedstudent number projections using the 2004-basedcentral population projections we have used thoserather than the low migration variant issued in2006. Table 6 shows the difference in projectedhome and EU student numbers across the fourcountries of the UK in 2026/27 for the twopopulation projections.Table 6Comparison of projected studentnumbers (000s) 7 by studentmarket in UK higher educationinstitutions using the GAD 2006-based and 2004-basedpopulation projections2006-based 2004-based Differencesprojections projectionFull-time undergraduate 1,208.8 1,130.3 -78.5Part-time undergraduate 214.3 204.9 -9.4(first degree)Part-time undergraduate 403.5 387.1 -16.4(other qualifications)Part-time postgraduate 108.5 107.5 -1.0Full-time postgraduate 218.9 215.3 -3.6Total 2,154 2,045.1 -108.9Source: GAD 2004 and 2006-based projections78 The comparison in this table provides a veryclear indication of the high level of uncertainty incurrent population projections and theconsequent uncertainty in demand whichinstitutions face over the next fifteen to twentyyears, especially in respect of demand for fulltimeundergraduate places.Changes in the social class balance within theUK population79 One of the major factors affecting propensity toenter higher education is social class. It is knownthat individuals from higher socio-economicgroups are more likely to achieve five GCSEsgrades A-C at age 16 and have a higherpropensity to stay on in secondary education andgain level 3 qualifications at 18 and henceprogress to higher education.80 The Higher Education Policy Institute, in itsreports 8 on projections of changing studentnumbers in England, has drawn attention to thechanging social class balance within the Englishpopulation and its possible impact on full-timeundergraduate demand. There is a shift in thebalance between socio-economic groups asbirth rates in England have been declining fasteramongst those from the lowest socio-economicgroups. The changing balance in the socioeconomicmake up of the young population is,therefore, one of the major uncertainties aboutfuture numbers gaining level 3 qualifications andentering higher education. The student numberprojections in our first report assumed nochange in participation rates resulting from thischanging balance in the socio-economic makeupof the population.20