The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

Scenario 3: employer-driven flexible learningAssumptions165 Demographic trends to 2019, with a near six percent reduction in numbers of young people,coupled with an ageing population and financialpressure for those in employment to remain inwork after the age of 65, lead to an increasedneed for high-level skills training and retraining.There is stronger political commitmentto (and funding for) lifelong learning, andcompetition between employers to recruit, andparticularly to retain, high quality staff,especially younger staff.166 Competing pressures for public funds (especiallyin areas such as health, social care services andpensions) result in higher education receivingsignificantly less public investment than it doesnow. Tuition fees for full-time home/EU studentson first degree programmes are deregulated,bringing them into line with part-time andpostgraduate programmes for home/EUstudents and all international students.167 Under these funding pressures, public funding ismore heavily rationed and regulated than nowbeing limited to the following:p a ‘train to gain’ model is put in place in whichpublic funding allocated by the highereducation funding councils is dependent onexplicit evidence of employer support for theprogrammes. This develops from bringingtogether the HEFCE pilot programme in whichadditional student numbers are partly fundedby employers and the Learning and SkillsCouncil’s train to gain programme in a singleUK-wide programme;p tax incentives for employers are introduced toencourage investment in training/learningundertaken by their employees;p supporting fees and providing other financialsupport for students on traditionalundergraduate programmes are provided on ameans-tested basis to students from lowincomehouseholds or low-participationbackgrounds, including access to publiclysubsidisedloans. Otherwise publicly providedloans are not subsidised;p a limited number of state scholarships areprovided in order to sustain subjects deemedto be in the national interest but wherestudent demand is insufficient to supportsustainable provision;p supporting capital investment in institutionsthrough the funding councils.168 Driven by the availability of this public fundingroute through employers and employers’expressed preferences, England joins the rest ofthe UK in introducing a full credit accumulationand transfer system (CATS), enabling thedistinction between full-time and part-timestudy to be abandoned and empoweringstudents to move in and out of higher educationas their lives, careers and circumstances dictate.Full higher education awards can be constructedfrom a series of modular pathways, enabling“bite sized” learning (ten credit modules) to formthe building blocks for first degree and otherprogrammes.169 The current distinction between student supportsystems for full-time and part-time students isabolished, with a pro rata entitlement to meanstested student support dependent upon theintensity of study (in terms of the number ofcredits) completed in each academic/calendaryear.170 Significant upfront capital investment is provided(from public funds) to assist institutions eitherworking alone or in partnership with privateinvestors to adopt high quality virtual learningsystems as a major method of deliveringteaching and learning provision at highereducation level. This enables learning to betailored to individual student needs and to meetthe increasing pressure for a 24/7 operatingenvironment. This also facilitates the move to afull CATS system which allows part-timelearning, work-based learning, and ’bite-sized’learning to become as mainstream as ’full-time’programmes.Scenario 3: employer-driven flexible learning171 Serious and continued investment in digitallearning systems and wireless technology allowsan increase in the scale and reach of highereducation programmes and provides 24/7/365opportunities for learning at this level. The scaleof operation and the ability for students andteachers to communicate remotely significantlyreduces unit delivery costs, making highereducation more affordable to students who haveto meet the cost of their own fees. This scenarioimplies a significant reduction in the size of thetraditional higher education sector across theUK, compared with today, in terms of thenumber of institutions, total student numbers (infull-time equivalents although not in headcountterms) and total funding per student (both publicand private).36