The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

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6 This analysis incorporates an assessment of thethreats and opportunities presented to thesector by each of the scenarios and is broughttogether to provide an overall assessment of thesize of the higher education sector by 2026/27under the three scenarios broken down by thedifferent student markets. We also provide ananalysis of how, under each of the scenarios, thepattern of institutions might be expected tochange.7 The final section of the report examines the wayin which universities might, individually andcollectively, be expected to seek to anticipatethese threats and opportunities, building on thestrategic planning and monitoring of theexternal environment that they alreadyundertake.Demography8 As our first report demonstrates, highereducation faces significant demographic changeover the next twenty years amongst the agegroups from which it traditionally recruits fulltimeand part-time undergraduates. Inparticular the number of 18- to 20-year-oldswho make up over 70 per cent of entrants to fulltimeundergraduate programmes is projected tofall sharply from 2009 to 2019 before rising againup to 2027. The older age groups, from whichpart-time undergraduates are mainly drawn,will, on the other hand, experience modestgrowth over the same time period.9 Table 1 below summarises the demographicbasedprojections for full-time undergraduatesfor 2019 and 2027 compared to current numbersfor the UK as a whole and the four countries ofthe UK. It should be noted that these projectionsassume no change in the current flows ofstudents between the different countries of theUK.Table 1Demographic-based projectionsof full-time undergraduatestudent numbers 2019/2020 and2026/20272005/06 20019/2020 2026/2027Students Students percentage Students percentage(000s) (000s) change (000s) change2005/06 to 2005/06 to2019/2020 2026/27England 976.8 930.1 -4.8 1,004.7 +2.7Wales 64.8 59.3 -8.5 61.6 -4.9Scotland 125.5 111.8 -10.9 115.0 -8.4Northern 31.7 27.5 -13.2 27.5 -13.2IrelandUK 1,198.8 1,128.7 -5.9 1,208 +0.8Source: Universities UK (2008) The future size and shape of thehigher education system in the United Kingdom: demographicprojections and GAD 2006 projections.10 These figures demonstrate both the sharpdecline to 2019 across the UK and also reflectthe different pattern of demographic change forthe key 18- to 20-year-old age groups across thefour countries of the UK. Demographicprojections for the nine English regions are notavailable on the same basis. However, the 2004-based projections for the English regionsshowed a variation in the decline of the numberof 15- to 19-year-olds from over 15 per cent inthe North East and the North West regions toreductions of only 4.7 per cent in the Easternregion and 7.1 per cent in London over the sameperiod. Although the pattern of recruitmentwithin England is complex, these differences arelikely to impact significantly on institutions thatrecruit most of their undergraduates locally orregionally.11 The 25- to 50-year-old-age groups from whichmost part-time undergraduates are drawn showa more favourable demographic pattern over thenext twenty years and the demographic-basedprojections consequently show a modestincrease in part-time undergraduates over thenext twenty years for the UK as a whole,although for Scotland the projection is for adecline in part-time undergraduates. SomeEnglish regions are also projected to experiencea decline in the number of 25- to 50-year-olds atleast up to 2020, which may produce a reductionin part-time undergraduate enrolments that ispredominately local.6
12 There are two major sources of uncertainty inthe demographic-based student numberprojections:p the uncertainty in the projected rate of netinward migration; andp the social class mix of the relevantpopulations.13 The student number projections also assumethat migrants and their children will behave inthe same way as UK-born citizens in relation toparticipation in higher education. There is no wayof testing out this assumption in the short termand we have therefore assumed throughout thatthere will be no marked behavioural differencesbetween new migrants and others.14 The 2006-based population projections preparedby the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD)and published by the Office for NationalStatistics (ONS) showed a sharp increase in theprojected rate of net inward migration comparedto the previous projections prepared in 2004.Given the political sensitivity of migration rateswe have prepared an alternative studentprojection using the 2004 GAD projection ofmigration, which was significantly lower. Overall,using this basis, student numbers in highereducation would be around five per cent lowerthan using the 2006-based populationprojections and full-time undergraduates 6.5 percent lower or nearly 80,000 across the UK as awhole.15 One of the major factors affecting the propensityto enter higher education is social class. It isknown that those from higher socio-economicgroups are more likely to achieve five GCSEsgrades A-C at the age of 16 and have a higherpropensity to stay on in education post 16 andgain level 3 qualifications at the age of 18 andhence progress to higher education.16 The Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), inits reports on projections of changing studentnumbers in England, has drawn attention to thechanging social class balance within the Englishpopulation and its possible impact on full-timeundergraduate demand 3 . There is a shift in thebalance between socio-economic groups asbirth rates in England have been declining fasteramongst those from the lowest socio-economicgroups. The changing balance in the socioeconomicmake-up of the young population istherefore one of the major uncertainties aboutfuture numbers gaining level 3 qualifications andentering higher education.17 Although it is unclear how far this analysis ofchanges applies to the socio-economic make-upof the population of the UK as a whole, weestimate that such changes could increase fulltimeundergraduate numbers by around 30,000by 2026/27, leaving a net uncertainty of around50,000 within the demographic-based projectionof full-time undergraduates.18 An important factor in the size and shape of thesector in twenty years time will be the way inwhich institutions respond to the decline indemand for full-time undergraduate placesimplied by these projections. One would expectthat competition for full-time undergraduatestudents would increase, but some institutionswill probably be able quite readily to maintaincurrent enrolment levels, although notnecessarily in every subject. It is interesting tonote in this context that, since 1999, during aperiod of demographic increase, full-timeundergraduate numbers have risen by over 18per cent across the UK as a whole. Over thisperiod not all institutions have, however,increased their full-time undergraduate places.Furthermore, a significant element within theincrease has been a 77 per cent growth in thenumber of full-time undergraduates fromoutside the EU, while numbers from the EU haveactually fallen, notwithstanding the newaccessions in May 2004.19 Other options for institutions as they respond toa reduction in full-time undergraduate numbersinclude:p seeking out new markets;p increasing the level of activities in areas otherthan provision for full-time undergraduates;p concentrating on niche markets;p increased collaboration to engage the marketbetter as with some current initiatives oninternational marketing and recruitment.Universities UKThe future size and shape of HE7
Page 5: Index of tables6 Table 1 Demographi
Page 10 and 11: Factoring in current trends and pol
Page 12 and 13: Table 2Key areas of uncertainty and
Page 14 and 15: 34 The third scenario, ‘employer-
Page 16 and 17: 1Introduction44 This is the second
Page 18 and 19: 3Methodological approach52 Our appr
Page 20 and 21: Table 4Demographic-based projection
Page 22 and 23: Sources of uncertainty74 There are
Page 24 and 25: Table 8Full-time undergraduateenrol
Page 26 and 27: 98 As these are all market-driven p
Page 28 and 29: 6Scenario planningIntroduction109 I
Page 30 and 31: 28119 For institutions the impact o
Page 32 and 33: 127 Twelve sets of issues were iden
Page 34 and 35: 32139 All the scenarios assume impl
Page 36 and 37: Scenario 2: market-driven and compe
Page 38 and 39: Scenario 3: employer-driven flexibl
Page 40 and 41: Comparing the scenarios176 In seeki
Page 42 and 43: Threats and opportunitiesScenario 1
Page 44 and 45: p extreme stratification of the hig
Page 46 and 47: 193 These assessments of the level
Page 48 and 49: 208 Home and EU part-time postgradu
Page 50 and 51: Table 17Summary of projectedinterna
Page 52 and 53: 10Institutions’ responses to the
Page 54 and 55: Notes1 As a starting point for the
Page 56: About Universities UKThis publicati

The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

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