The future size and shape of HE - Universities UK

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Table 17Summary of projectedinternational (non-EU) studentenrolments by level in the UKhigher education sector underdifferent scenarios in 2026/27Scenario Undergraduate Postgraduate TotalCentral baseline 86,500 112,100 198,600demographicprojectionScenario 1 95,200 123,300 218,500Scenario 2 77,900 106,500 184,400Scenario 3 86,500 100,900 187,400222 Overall this suggests that the total studentdemand under the three scenarios may be verysimilar, although there is a significant shift, oneach of the scenarios, from full-time to parttimenumbers but especially on scenario 3.Financially this is very significant because on afull-time equivalent basis numbers overallwould be lower, and part-time students tend tobe more costly on a full-time equivalent basisthan full-time students. However, the reductionin the recruitment of international (non-EU)students on scenarios 2 and 3 would also have asignificant impact on the sector’s finances.221 Table 18 summarises these student numbers inthe main student markets for each of thescenarios.Table 18Student numbers (000s) in2026/27 by level and modeunder the various scenariosCentral demographic projection Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3Home and EU full-time undergraduate 1,054-1,202 1,024 -1,172 954-1,100 769-915Part-time first degree 199.3-214.3 229.3-244.3 224.3-259.3 244.3-264.3Part-time other undergraduate 387-403.5 387-403.5 437-453.5 587-603.5Postgraduate research (home and EU) 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.5Full-time postgraduate taught (home and EU) 104.5-108.5 104.5-108.5 115.5-119.5 94-98Part-time postgraduate (home and EU) 208.9-218.9 230.9-240.9 240.9-250.9 263.9-273.9International (non-EU) undergraduate 86.5 95.2 77.9 86.5International (non-EU) postgraduate 112.1 123.2 106.5 100.9Total 2,215.8-2,409 2,257.6 -2,451.1 2,219.6 -2,431.1 2,209.1-2,405.648
9Future shape of the sector223 In developing the scenarios, the future pattern ofhigher education institutions was seen as a keyuncertainty in its own right. The scenariospresented above incorporate a view of thepattern of institutions that might emerge giventhe assumptions underpinning each of thescenarios. The pattern of institutions within thehigher education sector in twenty years’ time foreach of the three scenarios is presented below.Scenario 1: Slow adaptation to change224 The shape of the sector would be recognisablysimilar to now but with fewer institutions assome will have merged or been taken over in thelight of increased competition and the inability tosecure long-term financial sustainability. Therewill also be increased trans-national provisionwith overseas universities. Most institutions willhave increased their engagement with studentsthrough digital and wireless technologies, butface-to-face contact will remain a major part ofthe learning programme.Scenario 2: Market-driven and competitive225 There will be a much wider variety of institutionsthan now with:p fewer very large broad mission institutionsthan now;p a much larger number of small and mediumsizedinstitutions operating in niche markets;p a range of non-traditional providers, includinga much larger number of private providersthan now, overseas universities operating inthe UK, large borderless e-learning providersand major publishing houses. Some will be inpartnership with publicly funded institutionsand thereby gain access to public funding;p a more widespread application than now ofdigital and communications technology to thedelivery of courses and communication withstudents, especially by the larger providersable to secure the benefits of scale to competewith private sector providers.p a small group of elite institutions with highfees, strong research and significant numbersof international students. Although homeundergraduate students in these institutionswill no longer receive publicly subsidisedtuition funding support (except for thosereceiving scholarships for subjects deemed inthe national interest), full-time studycontinues to be the norm here (unlike all otherinstitutions);p some institutions will act as major regionalcentres, serving the needs of their localcommunities including both business andpublic sector employers. Predominantly thesewill be those located in major conurbations;p some institutions will be predominantly virtualbut with very large numbers of students on awide range of programmes;p some institutions whose principal mission iswidening access will continue to provide asignificant element of face-to-face teachingand receive significant support from publicfunds to support the mission;p much first degree provision will be offered infurther education colleges (boosted by thesuccess of the empowerment of colleges toaward their own Foundation degrees)operating at lower unit costs and runningprogrammes franchised from a regionalcentre. This might have some flavour ofcommunity college provision in the UnitedStates. Typically this might be the pattern fortraditional higher education delivery in ruralareas (lower populations and/orgeographically remote).Scenario 3: Employer-driven flexible learning226 The sector will be much more stratified than nowas institutions pursue the most financiallysustainable strategy given the markets withwhich they wish to engage. This range ofinstitutions will include the following.Universities UK The future size and shape of HE 49
Page 5: Index of tables6 Table 1 Demographi
Page 8 and 9: 6 This analysis incorporates an ass
Page 10 and 11: Factoring in current trends and pol
Page 12 and 13: Table 2Key areas of uncertainty and
Page 14 and 15: 34 The third scenario, ‘employer-
Page 16 and 17: 1Introduction44 This is the second
Page 18 and 19: 3Methodological approach52 Our appr
Page 20 and 21: Table 4Demographic-based projection
Page 22 and 23: Sources of uncertainty74 There are
Page 24 and 25: Table 8Full-time undergraduateenrol
Page 26 and 27: 98 As these are all market-driven p
Page 28 and 29: 6Scenario planningIntroduction109 I
Page 30 and 31: 28119 For institutions the impact o
Page 32 and 33: 127 Twelve sets of issues were iden
Page 34 and 35: 32139 All the scenarios assume impl
Page 36 and 37: Scenario 2: market-driven and compe
Page 38 and 39: Scenario 3: employer-driven flexibl
Page 40 and 41: Comparing the scenarios176 In seeki
Page 42 and 43: Threats and opportunitiesScenario 1
Page 44 and 45: p extreme stratification of the hig
Page 46 and 47: 193 These assessments of the level
Page 48 and 49: 208 Home and EU part-time postgradu
Page 52 and 53: 10Institutions’ responses to the
Page 54 and 55: Notes1 As a starting point for the
Page 56: About Universities UKThis publicati

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