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Can we “solve” Stornoway byHedging?© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Possibilities of Hedging StornowaySummaryOctober Stornoway Scores by HedgingHedging Approach Forecast BSSMOGREPS (No hedge) PoP -2.00Climatology Climatology (=81%) 0.0Always Rain 100% 0.046Limit min prob to 50% max(PoP, 50%): -0.838Half-way betweenclimatology andMOGREPS(PoP+Climatology)/2 -0.567• Almost any crude hedging strategy can improve theStornoway PoP, but we should not be hedging….© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Page 1 and 2: Research to Improve Forecasting ofP
Page 3 and 4: Summary of Conclusions -PoP Score
Page 5 and 6: Summary of Conclusions -Post-proces
Page 7 and 8: The Stornoway EffectPoor October sc
Page 9 and 10: Stornoway -Maritime convection not
Page 11: Stornoway EffectWeaknesses of PoP S
Page 15 and 16: IGPSIntelligent GridPoint Selection
Page 17 and 18: The “new CDP”Additionally - adv
Page 19 and 20: How good is the CDP?Last summer ind
Page 21 and 22: Bayesian Updating© Crown copyright
Page 23 and 24: Bayesian Updatingnaïve algorithmCl
Page 29 and 30: Bayesian Updatingnaïve vs finite c
Page 41 and 42: Bayesian Updatingfinite counting -
Page 43 and 44: Bayesian Updating• Philosophy is
Page 45 and 46: Bayesian Updatingwhy not be naïve?
Page 47 and 48: Combining improvementsFallbackClima
Page 49 and 50: Ensemble Index• Development of a
Page 51 and 52: Ensemble Upgrades• Some key ensem
Page 53: Questions?© Crown copyright Met Of

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