Slide (460 kb) - Met Office
Slide (460 kb) - Met Office
Slide (460 kb) - Met Office
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Bayesian Updatingwhy not be naïve?• Simple weighting performs well• We could try to optimise the weights• The Bayesian approach could be refined• Test sensitivity to assumed sample sizes• Move away from using the binomial distribution• Select distribution parameters using verification data• Update parameters in real-time• Possibility of generalising;• Generate parameters without reference to longhistory of forecasts© Crown copyright <strong>Met</strong> <strong>Office</strong> MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
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