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Introducing CDPwith MOGREPSoffers potential tomeet many morecustomer needs,e.g.• Lightning• ConvectivegustsUsing the derived CCB, CCT andCAPE, together with T, Q and Wthe following are derived:• Peak shower precipitation rate• Mean shower precipitation rate (rain & snow)• Lightning flash rate• Potential hail size• Significant tornado parameter• Max. possible convective gust• Convective cloud amount estimate at site© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
How good is the CDP?Last summer independent tests at T+0 12Z fromselected UK stations (23/7/07 – 19/8/07)• CCB (from 158 surface reports)• Mean error = 31 feet• Standard deviation = 625 feet• Max. error = 2146 feet© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Page 1 and 2: Research to Improve Forecasting ofP
Page 3 and 4: Summary of Conclusions -PoP Score
Page 5 and 6: Summary of Conclusions -Post-proces
Page 7 and 8: The Stornoway EffectPoor October sc
Page 9 and 10: Stornoway -Maritime convection not
Page 11 and 12: Stornoway EffectWeaknesses of PoP S
Page 13 and 14: Possibilities of Hedging StornowayS
Page 15 and 16: IGPSIntelligent GridPoint Selection
Page 17: The “new CDP”Additionally - adv
Page 21 and 22: Bayesian Updating© Crown copyright
Page 23 and 24: Bayesian Updatingnaïve algorithmCl
Page 29 and 30: Bayesian Updatingnaïve vs finite c
Page 41 and 42: Bayesian Updatingfinite counting -
Page 43 and 44: Bayesian Updating• Philosophy is
Page 45 and 46: Bayesian Updatingwhy not be naïve?
Page 47 and 48: Combining improvementsFallbackClima
Page 49 and 50: Ensemble Index• Development of a
Page 51 and 52: Ensemble Upgrades• Some key ensem
Page 53: Questions?© Crown copyright Met Of

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