Slide (460 kb) - Met Office
Slide (460 kb) - Met Office
Slide (460 kb) - Met Office
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Possibilities of Hedging StornowaySummaryOctober Stornoway Scores by HedgingHedging Approach Forecast BSSMOGREPS (No hedge) PoP -2.00Climatology Climatology (=81%) 0.0Always Rain 100% 0.046Limit min prob to 50% max(PoP, 50%): -0.838Half-way betweenclimatology andMOGREPS(PoP+Climatology)/2 -0.567• Almost any crude hedging strategy can improve theStornoway PoP, but we should not be hedging….© Crown copyright <strong>Met</strong> <strong>Office</strong> MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008