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Post-processing strategy• Anders Persson contracted to develop genericKFMOS for deterministic and ensembles• Aim to develop strategy for ensembles in UKPP• Gridded calibration• Calibration for full range of thresholds – not just 0.4mm• Dedicated calibration for severe (extreme) events• But note post-processing for extreme events is verydifficult due to shortage of training data• Training too much on case studies leads to excessfalse alarms© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Ensemble Upgrades• Some key ensemble plans will advance PoP:• Vertical localisation• Better control of perturbations at different levels• Stratosphere to prevent instability• Boundary layer for improved spread in weatherparameters• Surface perturbations• Ensembles with convection-allowing model (1.5km)• Resolved convection• Improved topographic forcing© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Page 1 and 2: Research to Improve Forecasting ofP
Page 3 and 4: Summary of Conclusions -PoP Score
Page 5 and 6: Summary of Conclusions -Post-proces
Page 7 and 8: The Stornoway EffectPoor October sc
Page 9 and 10: Stornoway -Maritime convection not
Page 11 and 12: Stornoway EffectWeaknesses of PoP S
Page 13 and 14: Possibilities of Hedging StornowayS
Page 15 and 16: IGPSIntelligent GridPoint Selection
Page 17 and 18: The “new CDP”Additionally - adv
Page 19 and 20: How good is the CDP?Last summer ind
Page 21 and 22: Bayesian Updating© Crown copyright
Page 23 and 24: Bayesian Updatingnaïve algorithmCl
Page 29 and 30: Bayesian Updatingnaïve vs finite c
Page 41 and 42: Bayesian Updatingfinite counting -
Page 43 and 44: Bayesian Updating• Philosophy is
Page 45 and 46: Bayesian Updatingwhy not be naïve?
Page 47 and 48: Combining improvementsFallbackClima
Page 49: Ensemble Index• Development of a
Page 53: Questions?© Crown copyright Met Of

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