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Recent Performance• Update of Table1 from paper• Sep good• Oct very poor• PoP KPT Score:• Aug 0.425• Sep 0.428• Oct 0.416• Why so Bad?Month 2005 2006 2007 2008Jan 0.174 0.365 0.462 0.347Feb 0.149 0.518 0.586 0.586Mar 0.321 0.556 0.537 0.428Apr 0.441 0.396 0.694 0.356May 0.337 0.448 0.498 0.383Jun 0.404 0.362 0.463 0.164Jul 0.466 0.276 0.368 0.351Aug 0.385 0.288 0.433 0.469Sep 0.408 0.400 0.215 0.532Oct 0.594 0.297 0.465 0.1720.417Nov 0.391 0.499 0.304(Wed 12 th )Dec 0.175 0.494 0.610© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
The Stornoway EffectPoor October score largely due to one site• Blue –new postprocess• Pink – rawMOGREPS10.503026 3091 3134 3257 3348 3544 3590 3716 3772 3827 3917• Improvementat severalsitesBSS(Site)-0.5-1EU_MODELEU_RAW-1.5-2-2.5Site ID© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Page 1 and 2: Research to Improve Forecasting ofP
Page 3 and 4: Summary of Conclusions -PoP Score
Page 5: Summary of Conclusions -Post-proces
Page 9 and 10: Stornoway -Maritime convection not
Page 11 and 12: Stornoway EffectWeaknesses of PoP S
Page 13 and 14: Possibilities of Hedging StornowayS
Page 15 and 16: IGPSIntelligent GridPoint Selection
Page 17 and 18: The “new CDP”Additionally - adv
Page 19 and 20: How good is the CDP?Last summer ind
Page 21 and 22: Bayesian Updating© Crown copyright
Page 23 and 24: Bayesian Updatingnaïve algorithmCl
Page 29 and 30: Bayesian Updatingnaïve vs finite c
Page 41 and 42: Bayesian Updatingfinite counting -
Page 43 and 44: Bayesian Updating• Philosophy is
Page 45 and 46: Bayesian Updatingwhy not be naïve?
Page 47 and 48: Combining improvementsFallbackClima
Page 49 and 50: Ensemble Index• Development of a
Page 51 and 52: Ensemble Upgrades• Some key ensem
Page 53: Questions?© Crown copyright Met Of

Slide (460 kb) - Met Office

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