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Stornoway daily Brier scoresOnly two days without rain –• Blue – new post-process• Pink – raw MOGREPS• Yellow – climatology0.90.8p-p improved f/c these days0.7• Climatology PoP81% for Stornowayin October• Rained every daybut 2• BSS Reference ofclimatologyscored well• New p-p reducedf/c probs and gavelarge BSBS(contrib)0.60.50.40.30.20.10No data1-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 11-Oct-08 16-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 26-Oct-08 31-Oct-08EU_MODELEU_RAWClimatology© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Stornoway –Maritime convection not advected inlandStornoway© Crown copyright Met Office MOSAC Paper 13.9, 14 Nov 2008
Page 1 and 2: Research to Improve Forecasting ofP
Page 3 and 4: Summary of Conclusions -PoP Score
Page 5 and 6: Summary of Conclusions -Post-proces
Page 7: The Stornoway EffectPoor October sc
Page 11 and 12: Stornoway EffectWeaknesses of PoP S
Page 13 and 14: Possibilities of Hedging StornowayS
Page 15 and 16: IGPSIntelligent GridPoint Selection
Page 17 and 18: The “new CDP”Additionally - adv
Page 19 and 20: How good is the CDP?Last summer ind
Page 21 and 22: Bayesian Updating© Crown copyright
Page 23 and 24: Bayesian Updatingnaïve algorithmCl
Page 29 and 30: Bayesian Updatingnaïve vs finite c
Page 41 and 42: Bayesian Updatingfinite counting -
Page 43 and 44: Bayesian Updating• Philosophy is
Page 45 and 46: Bayesian Updatingwhy not be naïve?
Page 47 and 48: Combining improvementsFallbackClima
Page 49 and 50: Ensemble Index• Development of a
Page 51 and 52: Ensemble Upgrades• Some key ensem
Page 53: Questions?© Crown copyright Met Of

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