Ghana - UNEP

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• Ferkesedougou (Côte d’Ivoire) to Sikasse (Mali)• Bolgatanga (Ghana) to Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)• Preatea-Tema (Ghana) to Lome (Togo)• IkejaWest (Nigeria) to Sakete (Benin)The World Bank has provided the government of Ghana with a US$40m facility, effective January2006, to enable it to kick-start the first phase of the coastal West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)programme and to establish an Electricity Transmission Utility as an autonomous transmission systemoperator within WAPP (ECG, 2005).5.2.5 Power generation systemTable 7 gives the assumed techno-economic data of existing and expected future power plants inGhana. (Data for existing and future hydropower plants are reported in Tables 2 and 5). The costassumptions for future power plants have been taken as the average of estimates reported for variouscountries in a recent study by the OECD/NEA/IEA (OECD, 2005).NameTable 7: Techno-economic data for existing and future power plantsOvernightinvestmentcost(US$/kW)Fixed O&Mcost(US$/kWyr)VariableO&M cost(US$/MWh)Constructiontime(Years)Efficiency(%)LevelisedGenerationCost bUS$/MWhTapcoa17 2.3a40.4 76.8 cTicoa13 2.3a26.9 110.6 cThemaa8 1.1a125.6 cBargea10 1.1a61.9 cCCGT e 550 12 2.1 3 50 42.7CT f 400 10 1.1 3 30 59.6Coal steam 1,050 25 3.1 4 36 39.7Wind farm1,250 25 - 2 - 54.7 d(Volta)Wind farm(Coast)1,250 25 - 2 - 58.6 dWind rural 1,250 25 - 2 - 65.7 dSolar PV 4,000 10 - 2 - 187.6Nuclear 1,680 59 0.4 5 33 40.2T&D g 1,000 9 90 10.7aExisting plants.b8% discount rate.c Assuming whole investment has been paid. Fuel of Tapco and Tico is light crude oil. For barge, levelisedgeneration cost based on natural gas.d The plant factors for wind farm (Volta region), wind farm (coast) and ‘wind rural’ are 30%, 28% and 25%depending upon respective wind regimes.eCombined cycles gas turbine.fCombustion turbine.gTransmission and distribution.Sources: Based on data from ECG (2005), OECD (2005) and EIA (2004).5.2.6 Fuel price assumptionsThe price of imported crude oil has been taken as US$45/bbl ($7.8/GJ) in constant 2003 prices, andthe prices of petroleum products have been linked to crude oil price projections according to specificproportions determined on the basis of Rotterdam product price data during the last 15 years (BP,2005). A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out with a crude oil price of US$70/bbl ($12.3/GJ)in constant 2003 prices.The price of imported electricity has been taken as US$0.066/kWh which is the currently prevailingprice. The imported coal price has been assumed as US$45/tonne (US$1.54/GJ) plus local porthandling and landing charges of US$5/tonne (US$0.17/GJ) of coal (ECG, 2003b).12
The price of WAGP imported natural gas will be determined on the basis of a base price indexed to oilprices, plus transportation charges, delivery fee, etc. (ECG, 2005). This import price is still undernegotiation, but is not expected exceed US$4.5/MMBTU (US$4.3/GJ) when the pipeline becomesoperational in 2007.6 Scenario Results6.1 Future energy demandBased on the assumed population and economic growth rates, the overall final energy demand isprojected to increase 3.3 times over the study period 2003-2030, with an average annual growth rate of4.5% (Table 8). Final energy use is estimated to increase from 11.6 GJ per person in 2003 to 20.6 GJper person in the year 2030. Because of assumed changes in the structure of the economy and assumedtechnological improvements, the energy intensity of GDP is expected to fall from 31.0 MJ/US$ in year2003 to 19.8 MJ/US$ in year 2030.Table 8: Final energy demand2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Total Energy (PJ) 237.0 249.9 295.6 372.1 482.9 624.0 780.1Share by sector (%)Agriculture 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0Construction 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Mining 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7Manufacturing 17.0 19.0 25.1 30.7 34.4 36.0 36.9Transport 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.1 23.2 24.0 24.9Urban HouseholdRural Household18.434.817.533.616.528.015.523.315.119.714.917.214.815.3Services 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.5 5.2Share by fuel (%)Oil Products 30.6 30.1 36.6 41.4 44.6 46.5 49.7Gas a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3Electricity 8.3 10.3 12.5 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.3Biomass b 44.4 43.7 35.0 30.0 28.0 27.2 24.4Charcoal 16.7 15.8 15.9 14.5 12.4 10.6 9.2Solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04a Natural gas import is expected to start in 2007 but will be allocated only to power generation in that year.b Biomass includes firewood, crop residues and animal residues.6.2 Primary energy supplyA baseline energy supply scenario (Base Case) was developed using the MESSAGE model. Totalprimary energy supply in this scenario increases from 343 PJ in 2003 to 552 PJ in 2015 and to1,108 PJ in 2030, with an overall average annual growth rate of 4.4% during the period (Figure 8 andTable 9). Among the renewable options, solar thermal, micro hydro and off-grid wind turbinessucceed in getting shares in the Base Case least-cost energy supply mix of Ghana. Their totalcontribution to primary energy supply increases from nothing in the base year (2003) to 1 PJ (0.2% intotal energy supply) in 2015 and to 6 PJ by 2030 (0.5% in total primary energy). The grid-connectedwind farms, solar photovoltaic technologies and bio-diesel could not compete with other energysources in the Base Case, except that small scale solar photovoltaic systems compete with small dieselgenerator sets in very remote areas where the cost of diesel transportation is extremely high. Biomassremains the largest single contributor to the total primary energy supply, but its share decreases from68% in 2003 to 38% in 2030.As for electricity generation, the contribution of renewable energy technologies reaches 1.6 TWh inthe year 2030 (Table 10) which is 4.4% of the total electricity generation in that year. This renewableelectricity is generated from micro hydro and off-grid wind turbines, and solar photovoltaic systems in13
Page 3: ASSESSING POLICY OPTIONS FOR INCREA
Page 6: Table of ContentsSUMMARY………
Page 10 and 11: Out of total primary energy supply
Page 12 and 13: 5 Development of Future Energy Scen
Page 14 and 15: Figure 1: Map of Ghana, by region40
Page 16 and 17: Bui, the country’s third hydropow
Page 18 and 19: Figure 5: Annual direct normal radi
Page 22 and 23: emote areas. The entire estimated p
Page 24 and 25: 3,500MW3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500
Page 26 and 27: 3530Million US$ (2003)2520151050200
Page 28 and 29: 300Index 2005=10020010002005 2010 2
Page 30 and 31: 9 For Readers Interested in Underta
Page 32 and 33: APPENDIXThe MAED and MESSAGE models
Page 35: UN-Energy MembershipThe following a

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