Ghana - UNEP

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300Index 2005=10020010002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030YearTotal primary energy/capitaElectricity/capitaFigure 21: Growth trend of per capita commercial energy and electricity supplies7.2 AffordabilityAlthough the absolute values of the marginal costs in the different scenarios vary, their trends aresimilar. There is a sharp decline in the marginal costs of electricity supply in the year 2010 in allscenarios, due to anticipated conversion of existing power plants from light crude oil to natural gas.In the alternative scenarios (REQ, PBF and CDM), indigenous energy supplies have a higher sharecompared to the Base Case. Development of local renewable energy supply industries would alsogenerate additional employment opportunities and potentially raise the income of people, furtherenhancing the level of affordability.Figure 22 compares the projected trend of the marginal cost of electricity with that for GDP/capita. By2030, average per capita income increases by about 2.5 times whereas the electricity prices fall bysome 73-81% in real terms, thereby improving considerably the affordability of energy for both ruraland urban populations.300Index 2005 = 1002502001501005002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Base REQ PBF CDM GDP/CapFigure 22: Trend of marginal cost of electricity supply7.3 Import dependenceEnergy import dependence increases in all scenarios from about 28% in 2005 to 56-59% in 2030,virtually all for growing quantities of fossil fuel, of which there is no indigenous supply. But in allscenarios energy supplies are more diversified compared to the past. And import dependence issomewhat lower in the REQ, PBF and CDM scenarios than in the Base Case, as the renewable energytechnologies gain a greater market share (Figure 23).20
Share (%)60504030201002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030YearBase REQ PBF CDMFigure 23: Share of imported energy in total primary energy supply8 Concluding RemarksAs in other countries under prevailing economic conditions, the role of renewable energy technologiesin the future energy supply of <strong>Ghana</strong> will be limited. Some supporting policy measures are needed topromote these technologies if further market penetration is to be realised. In this respect, thegovernment’s energy policy objectives under GPRS II already include diversifying the national energymix by implementing programmes to support renewable energy sources including micro hydro, wind,and solar PV.The analysis of various policy measures in this study shows that each one can help to increase thecontribution of renewable energy technologies in <strong>Ghana</strong>’s future energy supply mix, though withvarying efficacy and different economic impacts. Soft-measures like the Public Benefit Fund andCDM have economic advantages in that higher investments for renewable energy technologies arepartly financed by either internally generated funds or earnings from CO 2 credits. Hard measures, likea regulatory requirement for a minimum market share for renewables (Portfolio Standard / RenewableEnergy Quota), can be more effective but generate inefficiencies and impose an economic burden onsuppliers. A combination of these three measures plus some other policy options may well be the bestapproach for increasing the contribution of renewable energy technologies in future energy supplies, inline with one of the objectives of WSSD – “increasing the proportion of energy obtained fromrenewable energy sources”.This study has also shown the suitability of the IAEA’s energy models for analyzing the role ofvarious energy technologies in meeting future energy needs, and for evaluating the effectiveness ofvarious policy measures.21
Page 3: ASSESSING POLICY OPTIONS FOR INCREA
Page 6: Table of ContentsSUMMARY………
Page 10 and 11: Out of total primary energy supply
Page 12 and 13: 5 Development of Future Energy Scen
Page 14 and 15: Figure 1: Map of Ghana, by region40
Page 16 and 17: Bui, the country’s third hydropow
Page 18 and 19: Figure 5: Annual direct normal radi
Page 20 and 21: • Ferkesedougou (Côte d’Ivoire
Page 22 and 23: emote areas. The entire estimated p
Page 24 and 25: 3,500MW3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500
Page 26 and 27: 3530Million US$ (2003)2520151050200
Page 30 and 31: 9 For Readers Interested in Underta
Page 32 and 33: APPENDIXThe MAED and MESSAGE models
Page 35: UN-Energy MembershipThe following a

Ghana - UNEP

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