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X HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care in Resource-Constrained Settings

X HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care in Resource-Constrained Settings

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E C ONOMIC IMPACTEarly research on the economic impact of <strong>AIDS</strong>focused on the macroeconomic aspects. This showedthat <strong>in</strong>creased deaths <strong>and</strong> decreased <strong>in</strong>vestment couldbe expected to slow economic growth <strong>and</strong> reduce percapita <strong>in</strong>come, albeit not dramatically. 2There have also been attempts to exam<strong>in</strong>e how<strong>AIDS</strong> would affect the private sector <strong>and</strong> households.Not surpris<strong>in</strong>gly, it has proved difficult to collect complete<strong>and</strong> credible data. Indeed, poor management<strong>in</strong>formation systems were a constant source of frustrationfor researchers who were work<strong>in</strong>g with companies<strong>in</strong> affected countries. 3 <strong>AIDS</strong> clearly had measurablecosts <strong>in</strong> the private sector, ma<strong>in</strong>ly through absenteeism<strong>and</strong> the payment of benefits. These costs could be ashigh as eight percent of the payroll, depend<strong>in</strong>g on thenature of the <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>and</strong> scale of the problem. But<strong>in</strong> general the impact was not great, manageable ortransferred onto the households. 4The relatively limited number of studies of householdimpact have shown that <strong>HIV</strong>/<strong>AIDS</strong> leads toimpoverishment of those affected. In Ethiopia <strong>and</strong>Tanzania, the average cost of basic symptomatic treatment,funeral <strong>and</strong> mourn<strong>in</strong>g expenses amounts to severaltimes the average annual household <strong>in</strong>come.Affected children are more likely to be malnourished<strong>and</strong>, particularly the girls, removed from school. 5Although the importance of these dramatic <strong>in</strong>creases<strong>in</strong> the number of orphans has been recognized, theirlong-term economic implications have not beenassessed.Part of the problem <strong>in</strong> assess<strong>in</strong>g the impact of<strong>HIV</strong>/<strong>AIDS</strong> is that it is long term <strong>and</strong> the data havenot been available. But <strong>in</strong> the last few years a numberof new publications have appeared that give a muchmore pessimistic view of the potential <strong>and</strong> actualimpact of the disease at all levels. The most significantmay be studies suggest<strong>in</strong>g that the impact on nationaleconomies <strong>and</strong> growth is more complex <strong>and</strong> seriousthan previously modeled, perhaps because the speed<strong>and</strong> scale of <strong>HIV</strong>/<strong>AIDS</strong> have been much worse thanexpected; <strong>HIV</strong>/<strong>AIDS</strong> reduces the stock of human <strong>and</strong>physical capital because it also reduces the <strong>in</strong>centive toF igure 12Infant Mortality With <strong>and</strong> WithoutThe <strong>AIDS</strong> Epidemic <strong>in</strong> 2000BotswanaZimbabweSouth AfricaNamibiaGhanaKenyaBurundiLesothoCameroonTogoNigeriaZambiaTanzaniaUg<strong>and</strong>aCôte d’IvoireSwazil<strong>and</strong>Ben<strong>in</strong>GabonEthiopiaCongo (Brazzaville)CARCongo (K<strong>in</strong>shasa)Burk<strong>in</strong>a FasoMalawiRw<strong>and</strong>aMozambiqueBahamasHondurasBrazilGuyanaHaitiThail<strong>and</strong>CambodiaBurmaWithout <strong>AIDS</strong>With <strong>AIDS</strong>0 50 100 150Infant deaths per 1,000 live birthsSource: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base <strong>and</strong> unpublished tables.<strong>HIV</strong>/<strong>AIDS</strong> <strong>Prevention</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Care</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Resource</strong>-Constra<strong>in</strong>ed Sett<strong>in</strong>gs XIX

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