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GAZETTE - Adm.monash.edu.au - Monash University

GAZETTE - Adm.monash.edu.au - Monash University

GAZETTE - Adm.monash.edu.au - Monash University

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projections of water requirements are based on percapita estimates, a study has been initiated in the departmentof Civil Engineering at <strong>Monash</strong> <strong>University</strong> to'"1040,.. ",,120 ., '100, :/', :'\ :... :' 'I \110 " ~~I/o"00,t20 1140Per capita domestic and industrial water consumptionin gallons per day for Melbourne and Newcastleno.ooor100.000scnce /., , . ,"'...,/2S,000""1000 L __~1.00 1120 1940 lUOYearly domestic and industrial water consumption inacre-feet for Melbourne and Newcastledetermine the more important factors affecting domesticand industrial per capita water use.The diagram showing Melbourne's water consumptionpoints to a second difficulty associated with Australianurban water resources planning. Can water engineerscontinue to provide a relatively low-cost supply tometropolitan population centres which require increasinglygreater volumes of water each year? By extrapolatingthe graph for Melbourne, we can estimate thatthe per capita daily consumption in the year 2000 will bearound 105 gallons. Coupled with a population of, say,5,000,000 people, this means that about 700,000 acrefeetof water will be required per year by the end ofthis century. (For present purposes, the assumptionsassociated with making this estimate can be ignored).Until now, Melbourne has relied upon the Yarra basin,which has a mean annual flow of' approximatelyI,000,000 acre-feet, to provide her water needs whichare currently about 250.000 acre-feet per year. Firmproposals have been put forward by the MMBW to gainadditional water from the Yarra and to extend the supplyareas to the Thomson catchment in Gippsland which isa potential source of 500,000 acre-feet per year. Thus,within the next few decades adequate water can bemade available for our garden city but, bec<strong>au</strong>se themost economic dam sites have already been utilized,additional supplies will be more costly to the taxpayer.This factor could force the community into a morerealistic approach towards accepting reclaimed wastewater rather than developing high-cost 'pure-source'supplies.In water-supply schemes, whether these be for domesticand industrial usage or for irrigation, the optimumsize of the headwater storage is a critical factor. Asecond current project within the Civil Engineering departmentis concerned with theoretical and practicalaspects of estimating required reservoir capacities tosatisfy a given demand. An important considerationrelating to this concerns the .level of reliability associatedwith the specified demand. Unfortunately, critics ofpublic projects often overlook this essential feature. Itis important to keep in mind that a water resourcessystem, whether it be constructed as a flood-mitigationscheme or as a conservation measure, will have someelement of risk associated with the functions for whichit is designed. Thus, in public works projects, andparticularly in the case of water supply, r<strong>edu</strong>cing therisk of failure inevitably entails greater costs for thetaxpayer.A fundamental requirement in designing a waterresourcessystem is a knowledge of the temporal andspatial streamflow patterns and their significance in thehydrologic cycle operating within the area. More oftenthan not, streamflow information is not available at agiven location. and hence the water-supply engineer isforced either to compute deterministically a sequence ofdata which approximate past records, or to generate bya stochastic (that is, probabilistic) proc<strong>edu</strong>re, a seriesof events which is assumed to represent the likelyvariations of future flow.Modelling the rainfall-runoff process using a digitalcomputer is the subject of a third research project. It ishoped that not only will the model be a means of computingstreamflow records from rainfall information butalso that it will allow a deeper insight into the hydrologicprocesses operating within a river basin.33

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