AC Choksi Share Brokers Private Limited

More documents

Recommendations

Info

A C ChoksiShare Brokers Private LimitedA C Choksi Institutional Research | Initiation Report|MININGMOIL April 26, 2011MOIL LTD‘Jinesh Sarat Shethjinesh@acchoksi.com+ 91 22 3021 9025RecommendationBUYTarget Price `448Recommendation Price `387Potential Upside(%) 15.8%IndustryMiningMarket Cap ( `Mn) 64,949Shares O/S (Mn) 168Face Value 10````Market StatsAverage Volumes 925,376Average Trades 17,336Average Turnover ( `Mn) 437Shareholding Chart (as on 31/03/2011)`Key IndicesBSE Sensex 19602BSE Metals 16659NSE Nifty 5885Stock InfoBSE Code 533286NSE CodeMOIL LimitedBloombergMOIL:INReuters CodeMOIL.BO52-Week High 59152-Week Low 367Life High 591Life Low 367105100959085FII's1%FI's/BanksMF 3%3%Others13%MOILPromoters80%Share Price Movement (Since listing)SensexInvestment ThesisProduction to double by 2020-The increase in steel consumption toaugur well for manganese ore producers; MOIL with near about 50%share in the country's Manganese ore production is all set to reap thebenefitsDemand for manganese ore is derived from steel, as the steelconsumption is expected to increase in future years, the manganese oreconsumption is also likely to follow. The company being the largestproducer of manganese ore by volume in India having access to 21.7million tonnes of proved and probable reserves and a total of 61.3million tonnes of resources (as per JORC code refer exhibit 51 & 52)islikely to gain the most under such a scenario.Zero Debt Company; with huge pile of cash, best placed to acquiremines in India and overseas; and can finance its capex internallyIn the high interest cost environment, MOIL is immune to increase ininterest rates at least directly, because it doesn't have the burden of debtin its balance sheet. That's one reason for its high PAT Margins (48.03%for FY 10).Exploring opportunities in Ferro Alloy space through JVs withSAIL & RINL; likely to add value in coming yearsProduction capacities in manganese alloys have been on the rise duringthe past ten years. The capacity increases by about 19-20% each year,whereas the domestic demand increases by 17-18%. In light of thebrighter future potential for steel sector, global demand for ferro alloysis expected to be robust; the company is planning to encash thisopportunity by entering into joint ventures with SAIL & RINL forsetting up ferro manganese and silico manganese plant. Collectively,this is expected to expand the ferro manganese capacity by 51,000Tonnes per annum and silico manganese capacity by 112,500 Tonnesper annum.Attractive Valuation: We initiate coverage with a BUY Rating onMOIL with a target price of `448, valuing it at 5.50x FY2012EEV/EBITDA, giving it an upside potential of 16% from current levels.80We expect MOIL's Sales, EBITDA & PAT to grow at a 2 year CAGR of19%, 24% & 24% respectively till FY 12 E. We have employed the_____________________________________________________________________________________Source: NSE, BSE, A C Choksi Institutional Research EV/EBITDA method for valuing MOIL.A C Choksi Institutional Research research@acchoksi.com 215-Dec-1022-Dec-1029-Dec-105-Jan-1112-Jan-1119-Jan-1126-Jan-112-Feb-119-Feb-1116-Feb-1123-Feb-112-Mar-119-Mar-1116-Mar-1123-Mar-1130-Mar-116-Apr-1113-Apr-1120-Apr-11
A C ChoksiShare Brokers Private LimitedA C Choksi Institutional Research | Initiation Report|MINING MOILApril 26, 2011Production to double by 2020-The increase in steel consumption to augur wellfor manganese ore producers; MOIL with near about 50% share in the country'sManganese ore production is all set to reap the benefitsDemand for manganese ore is derived from steel, as the steel consumption isexpected to increase in future years, the manganese ore consumption is also likelyto follow.The company being the largest producer of manganese ore by volume in Indiahaving access to 21.7 million tonnes of proved and probable reserves and atotal of 61.3 million tonnes of resources (as per JORC code refer exhibit 51&52)is likely to gain the most under such a scenario.MOIL's share in the Indian Manganese ore market is around ~50%. We cansay that it enjoys a sort of monopoly in this space. MOIL believes to hold~17% of the proved reserves of manganese ore in India.The company has invited bids from companies across the globe to form JVs foracquisitions of mines abroad. to meet the rising demand for manganese ore. Thecompany has plans to ramp up production to ~1.5 mn tonnes by 2014-15. Thecompany is planning to double its production to ~2.0-2.5 mn tonnes by 2020.It produced 1,364,575 tonnes, 1,175,318 tonnes, 1,093,363 tonnes and 516,749tonnes of manganese ore in FY08, FY09, FY10 and HY11 respectively.Exhibit 4.Manganese Ore Production (Tonnes)Exhibit 5.Indian Mn Ore Market Share2,000,000The company plans toincrease the production to2.0 to 2.5 million tonnesby 2020.Rungta Mines7%SandurManganese10%OMC3%OMDC2%Others12%1,500,000Tata16%1,000,000MOIL50%500,0000FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011E‘P’ stands for Company ProjectedFY 2012EFY 2015PFY 2020PSource: MOIL , RHP, A C Choksi Institutional Research_____________________________________________________________________________________A C Choksi Institutional Researchresearch@acchoksi.com 3
Page 1: A C ChoksiShare Brokers Private Lim
Page 5 and 6: A C ChoksiShare Brokers Private Lim
Page 7: A C ChoksiShare Brokers Private Lim
Page 53 and 54:
A C ChoksiShare Brokers Private Lim
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65:
show all

AC Choksi Share Brokers Private Limited

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?