Factors Influencing Office Building Occupation Decision by Tenants ...

Yasmin Mohd Adnan, Md Nasir DaudSince Delphi is founded on the oldpremise that the opinions of more than aperson are better, it utilises the use ofpanels of experts for obtaininginformation. It will then systematicallyattempt to produce a consensus ofopinion, and sometimes more importantlyidentify opinion divergence. It providesanonymity of both the experts andidentification of the expert’s statementsthroughout the exercise.Within the extended use of theDelphi Method, a series of rounds ofcommunication between the experts shallbe made and between which a summaryof the results of the previous round iscommunicated to and evaluated by theparticipants. The second and successiverounds often produce “a narrowing of theinitial spread of opinions and shifting ofthe median .... If no consensus emerges,at least a crystallizing of the disparatepositions usually becomes apparent”(Gordon, 1971).Strengths and WeaknessesThe major advantage of using the DelphiMethod is that it permits the researcherto obtain an objective consensus of expertjudgment on the subject under study. Italso makes the rationale underlying aspecific estimate or prediction explicit foreveryone. There have been several studies(Ament, 1970; Wissema, 1982; Helmer,1983) supporting the Delphi method.These studies seem to suggest that ingeneral, the Delphi method is useful toexplore and unpack specific, singledimensionissues. As Enzer et al (1971)observe, Delphi sessions are usuallybetter than other methods for eliciting andprocessing judgmental data, since theymaintain attention directly on the issue,provide a framework within whichindividuals with diverse backgrounds orin remote locations can work together onthe same problems, and produce precisedocumented records.On the other hand, the mainweakness of the Delphi Method is that atruly perspicacious expert’s judgmentmight be lost when a consensus thatactually represents a range of judgmentsis presented. Therefore, it is important toinclude judgments outside the consensusin footnotes or appendixes, asappropriate. Another weakness is that inface-to-face Delphi sessions, “GroupThink” problems may occur when someexperts may be swayed more by therhetoric or strength of personality of oneexpert and tend to discount the validityof other experts’ arguments. It is usuallyslow and time-consuming. If the Delphiis carried out through the mails with alarge panel, each round could take severalmonths. However, if it is conducted in aconference environment, the preparationof rounds and collation of responsescould be a matter of hours.Administration and ImplementationThe basic Delphi Method begins with aseries of first round questions askedindividually of experts to submit theirjudgments on the subject. The results ofthe first round judgments are thentabulated and the results are sent back tothe experts for modification. In essence,the experts are asked in the second roundto reevaluate their original judgments inlight of the average estimates calculatedin the first round. This procedure ofreevaluation is continued for several74