BBSR 2001 Annual Report - Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences

Searching the Pastfor Tomorrow’sForecastsCollaborative problem solving is the foundation of BBSR’s RiskPrediction Initiative (RPI). Established in 1994, RPI is an innovativescience-business partnership that helps businesses betterunderstand, assess and manage climate-related risks.With funding from and activeinvolvement by seven insurance orreinsurance companies, RPI hascovered a range of issues, includingforecasts of El Niño, Atlantichurricanes and European windstorms.There is perhaps no place better thanBermuda for such a program, givenBBSR’s long-term time-series of climatemeasurements (see article by Dr. NickBates on page 10) and the strong globalreinsurance industry presence on theisland.In addition to tapping into theresident expertise of BBSR’s faculty,RPI also works closely with leadingclimate scientists from around theworld. BBSR Associate ResearchScientist Dr. Rick Murnane, whomanages the RPI science program,describes how two workshopsorganized by RPI in 2001 provided aforum for a better understanding ofclimate risks.TWO RECENT RPI workshopsfocused on the improvement andconsolidation of historical records andarchives that are analogous to the longtermtime-series measurements carriedout by BBSR scientists. One workshopconcerned tropical cyclone records heldby countries affected by tropicalcyclones in the Northwest Pacific. Theother workshop examined temperatureand precipitation records collected bythe U.S. National Weather Service.The importance of tropicalcyclone, weather and climate recordsextends beyond scientific studies ofclimate change and the carbon cycle tobusinesses trying to reduce their risk ofloss from tropical cyclone landfall orweather extremes. Records of the trackand intensity of past tropical cyclonesprovide crucial information fordeveloping estimates of hurricane andtyphoon landfall probabilities. Archivesof temperature and precipitation atnumerous weather stations in theUnited States can yield estimates of therisk of extreme heat, cold, drought andflood. Improvements andenhancements to these records willhelp RPI sponsors better assess theprobabilities of tropical cyclone landfalland of extremes in temperature andprecipitation, leading to better businessdecisions.The November workshop wascosponsored with the U.S. NationalWeather Service and titled “Workshopon the Potential Development of aUnified Northwestern Pacific (NWPAC)Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Data Set.”Representatives from the meteorologicalagencies of nine countries gatheredin Hawaii to discuss the feasibility,