THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MARKETThe developed world has fewer and fewer farmers, but they are keeping moreand more animals. Instead of producing for the local market, they supplydistant supermarkets. This same shift is now transforming livestock productionin the developing world.Pig and poultrymarkets aregrowing; beef andsheep markets arestagnatingOverall, the global demand for meat is growing,but at different rates in different regions.In Europe and the United States, thebiggest meat producers in the 20th century, consumptionis growing slowly, or is even stagnating.On the other hand, the booming economies inAsia and elsewhere, will see around 80 percent ofthe growth in the meat sector by 2022. The biggestgrowth will be in China and India because of hugedemand from their new middle classes.The pattern of production is following suit.South and East Asia are undergoing the same rapidtransformation that occurred in many industrializedcountries several decades ago. In the1960s in Europe and the USA, many animalswere kept in small or medium-sized herds ongrazing land. They were slaughtered and processedon the farm or in an abattoir nearby.Meat and sausage were produced in the same localityor region. Today, this mode of livestock productionhas almost died out. In the USA, the numberof pig raisers fell by 70 percent between 1992and 2009, while the pig population remained thesame. During the same period, the number ofpigs sold by a farm rose from 945 to 8,400 a year.And the slaughter weight of an animal has goneup from 67 kilograms in the 1970s, to around 100kilograms today.In China, more than half the pigs are still producedby smallholders. This is changing fast. Thesame technologies and capital investments thatdominate livestock production in the developedworld are penetrating developing countries – andthey are integrated in global value chains. Whena piglet is born, its fate is already sealed: in whichsupermarket, in which town, and with what typeof marketing its pork chops will be sold.But the production conditions are now verydifferent from before. Industrial livestock productionin Europe and the USA began when feed,energy and land were inexpensive. Nowadays, allthree are scarce and costs have gone up. As a result,total meat production is growing less quicklythan before. The market is growing only for pigsand poultry. Both species utilize feed well and canbe kept in a confined space. This means that theycan be used to supply the insatiable demand forcheap meat. By 2022, almost half the additionalmeat consumed will come from poultry.Beef production, on the other hand, is scarcelygrowing. The USA remains the world’s largest beefproducer, but the meat industry describes the situationthere as dramatic. For 2013, it expects a fallof 4-6 percent compared to 2012 and predicts thedecline to continue in 2014. In other traditionalproducing regions including Brazil, Canada andEurope, production is stagnating or falling.The star of the day is India, thanks to its buffalomeat production, which nearly doubled between2010 and 2013. India is forcing its way onto theworld market, where 25 percent of the beef is infact now buffalo meat from the subcontinent. Accordingto the US Department of Agriculture, Indiabecame the world’s biggest exporter of beef in2012 – just ahead of Brazil. Buffaloes are inexpensiveto keep. This makes their meat a dollar a kilocheaper than beef from cattle. In addition, theIndian government has invested heavily in abattoirs.Faced with the high price of feed, Braziliancattle-raisers are switching to growing soybeans.ProductionTradeTradeConsumptionWorld, forecast 2013,million tonnesFAOWorld, forecast 2013,million tonnesFAOWorld, forecast 2013,percentFAOWorld, per capita,forecast 2013, kg per yearFAO13.80.9 9.968.18.67.2114.2 308.2 30.2 10033.343.1106.413.390.179.3beef, vealpoultrypigs othersheep, goatsbeef, vealpoultrypigs othersheep, goatsdomestic consumptionexportdevelopeddevelopingworld10MEAT ATLAS
Worldwide meat production11.410.21.819.2USA1.22.80.1MexicoChile23.03.22.12.512.40.61.71.40.4 0.98.11.20.2Russia0.10.60.50.2Canada2.60.31.89.70.1Argentina3.313.1Brazil0.50.1Uruguay0.1EU0.30.2Algeria1.00.20.30.9 1.50.2South AfricaUkraine1.60.3 0.4Million tonnes, average 2010-2012,data for 2012 are estimated1.70.5TurkeyIran 2.9 2.90.80.50.30.90.7 0.1 Saudi ArabiaIndiaEgypt1.5 0.80.5Pakistan0.26.50.20.2Bangladeshbeef, vealpigspoultrysheep, goats50.417.1China4.11.50.2Malaysia0.31.00.7Korea1.30.51.70.70.5 0.1Indonesia2.11.00.30.6Australia0.61.4Japan0.50.2New ZealandFAOThis presents an opportunity – albeit a small one –for Indian buffalo-meat exporters.Africans are also starting to eat more meat,though both supply and demand are still notgrowing as fast as in other parts of the world. Productionhas risen in many countries in Africa, butsignificantly only in populous South Africa, Egypt,Nigeria, Morocco and Ethiopia. A typical Africaneats only 20 kilograms of meat a year – well belowthe world average. Imports of cheap poultry meathave increased, though often at the expense of localproducers.Whereas the developed world still dominates,growth now relies on the developing countries.Nevertheless, only one-tenth of the world’s meatis traded internationally. This is because meat canonly be exported if it meets and can documentthe quality requirements of the importing countries.Importers and consumers fear diseases suchas mad cow disease, foot-and-mouth disease andavian flu. The temporary interruption of the poultrymarket in Southeast Asia and the completecollapse of British beef exports have shown howinternational trade can dry up overnight.Small animals in big groups – poultry take offA stable outlook – only if speculation is limitedMeat production, trends and forecast, in million tonnes14012010080604020beef, vealpoultrypigssheep, goats01995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 20192021OECD/FAOReal meat prices, trends and forecast, in dollars per tonne5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000beef, vealpoultrypigssheep, goats01991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021OECD/FAOMEAT ATLAS11
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