HALF A BILLION NEW MIDDLE-CLASSCONSUMERS FROM RIO TO SHANGHAIBrazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the BRICS – are five big developingcountries that are setting out from different starting points. They may not end upwith the food consumption patterns of the industrialized West.“Non-veg”has become astatus symbol inIndia’s thrivingcitiesEconomic growth in the BRICS, a group of fivebig developing countries named after theirinitials, is reflected in their meat consumption.Together, they account for 40 percent of theworld’s population. Between 2003 and 2012, theirmeat consumption rose by 6.3 percent a year. It isexpected to rise by another 2.5 percent a year between2013 and 2022.Both population growth and rising urbanizationlead to more meat consumption. Urbanresidents tend to have more disposableincome than rural people. They eat more, andthey eat differently from their country cousins.In particular, they tend to consume more animalproducts. In 2011, the rural Chinese got by with26.1 kilograms of meat, milk and eggs. That wasaround 12.4 kilograms more than in 1990. Buttheir urban counterparts downed 48.9 kilograms,an increase of 19.1 kilograms. The Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations assumesthat by 2050, emerging markets will coveronly 46 percent of their caloric intake with grains;another 29 percent will come from meat, eggs,milk and cheese.To keep up with such demand, the world’sfarmers and agricultural firms will have to boosttheir meat output from currently 300 milliontonnes to 470 million tonnes by 2050. Factoryfarms, similar to those known in the industrializedworld since the 1950s, will have to be establishedeverywhere. It is not clear how such hugenumbers of animals can be fed. Meat productionuses enormous amounts of feed grain, includingsoybeans, whose production will have to nearlydouble from 260 to 515 million tonnes a yearworldwide. Either yields per hectare will have torise, or more land will have to be brought into production,or both.The world’s two most populous countries differmarkedly in their consumption patterns. InIndia, a vegetarian lifestyle has deep cultural andsocial roots. Many Hindus, along with ascetic Jainsand Buddhists, avoid eating meat altogether. Insurveys, a quarter or more of all Indians say theyare vegetarian. But the number of meat-eaters isgrowing. Since the economic boom in the early1990s, a broad middle class that aspires to a Westernlifestyle has emerged. This includes eatingmeat. “Non-veg”, as it is called in India, has becomea status symbol among parts of the population.Nevertheless, meat consumption in India isstill small – per person it is less than one-tenth ofthe amount consumed in China.In Russia, the world’s biggest beef importer,demand depends on prosperity from oil andgas export revenues. The country’s accession tothe World Trade Organization in 2012 has notspiced up trade. Strict adherence to the WTO’sPoultry in China and India: more determined by lifestyle than by population growthPoultry meat demand, 2000–2030, in percent, assuming population of 1.4 billionFAOpopulationin 2000 in 2030 attributable to population growthgrowth as a function of bothattributable to changing lifestylepopulation1.41.21.00.811 11781.41.21.00.8527680.6China0.6India0.40.40.20.200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18per capita consumption(kilograms/year)00 2 4 648MEAT ATLAS
demand in the developing world is rising steeplyMeat consumption per capita, kilograms, average 2010–12 (estimate),and 2022 (forecast), in the BRICS countries(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)24.219.713.6 14.222.529.234.129.2OECD/FAO41.547.0Russia1.2 1.545.23.43.8China11.1 13.6 2.7 2.729.3 30.4 12.311.12010–2012 2022beef, vealpigmeatpoultrysheepBrazil0.4 0.414.412.65.4 5.8 32.2South africa1.0 1.2 0.2 0.23.2 3.4India2.0 2.6 0.7 0.6rules should, it is said, dampen the volatility oftrade flows, be it from the countries that supplymeat or in terms of the quantities and types ofproducts. Furthermore, the Russian market is regardedas difficult because the processing sectorresponds only slowly to new consumption trends.This means that products are being offered forwhich there is only a low demand, and are thereforeunprofitable. South Africa and Brazil are alsoeconomically dependent on the world price ofraw materials. But unlike industrialized Russia,livestock production is not unusual in these countries.In many South African communities, longafter the end of apartheid, economic relationshipswere based on livestock and meat, not onlyas a trade item but also as a means of payment.While meat is cheap in Brazil, it is expensive inSouth Africa. Several economic crises have ensuredthat the rising demand for meat is almostentirely limited to cheap chicken.Avian flu, contaminated milk, dead pigs disposedof in rivers – these are the consequences offactory farming and a lack of controls. In manyparts of Asia, they have awakened a consumerawareness that is similar to its counterpart in theindustrial world. Demand for organically producedfood is rising. In the big cities, new retailchains and organic-food sections in supermarketsare appearing. While the statistics do not differentiatebetween animal and vegetable products, theMEaT aTlaSsales are attractive for would-be organic producers.In India, market researchers are expecting afive-fold increase in all organic product sales, from190 million dollars in 2012, to 1 billion dollars in2015. In 2011, sales in Brazil reached 550 milliondollars. And in China, where the certification requirementsfor organic products are among thestrictest in the world, sales in 2015 may range between3.4 and 9.4 billion dollars a year.Russia: consumption in crisiskcal intake of animal products, per day per capita, including milk and eggs8007507006506005505000High inflationdestroys privatesavings; oldindustrialconglomeratesin crisisBanking crisis affectsforeign investment;inflation reappearsOil and gas boomboosts publicexpenditure andprivate businessconfidence1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Financialcrisis causessetbackuntil 2011FAOSTAT49
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