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The report Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience is aresult of contributions from a wide range of experts from across the globe. The report follows Turn Downthe Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, released in November 2012. We thank everyone whocontributed to its richness and multidisciplinary outlook.The report has been written by a team from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research andClimate Analytics, including Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Bill Hare, Olivia Serdeczny, Michiel Schaeffer,Sophie Adams, Florent Baarsch, Susanne Schwan, Dim Coumou, Alexander Robinson, Marion Vieweg,Franziska Piontek, Reik Donner, Jakob Runge, Kira Rehfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Mahé Perette, Arathy Menon,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alberte Bondeau, Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler,Lila Warszawski and Marcia Rocha.The ISI-MIP projections were undertaken by modeling groups at the following institutions: ORCHIDEE 1(Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France); JULES (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK; Met Office HadleyCentre, UK; University of Exeter, UK); VIC (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Norway;Wageningen University, Netherlands); H08 (Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan); WaterGAP (KasselUniversity, Germany; Universität Frankfurt, Germany); MacPDM (University of Reading, UK; University ofNottingham, UK); WBM (City University of New York, USA); MPI-HM (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,Germany); PCR-GLOBWB (Utrecht University, Netherlands); DBH (Chinese Academy of Sciences, China);MATSIRO (University of Tokyo, Japan); Hybrid (University of Cambridge, UK); Sheffield DGVM (Universityof Sheffield, UK; University of Bristol, UK); JeDi (Max Planck Institut für Biogeochemie, Germany);ANTHRO-BGC (Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research,Germany); VISIT (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan); GEPIC (Eawag, Switzerland); EPIC(University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria); pDSSAT (University of Chicago, USA);DAYCENT (Colorado State University, USA); IMAGE (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,Netherlands); PEGASUS (Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, UK); LPJ-GUESS (Lunds Universitet,Sweden); MAgPIE (Potsdam Institute, Germany); GLOBIOM (International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, Austria); IMPACT (International Food Policy Research Institute, USA; International LivestockResearch Institute, Kenya); DIVA (Global Climate Forum, Germany); MARA (London School of Hygieneand Tropical Medicine, UK); WHO CCRA Malaria (Umea University, Sweden); LMM 205 (The University ofLiverpool, UK); MIASMA (Maastricht University, Netherlands); and VECTRI (Abdus Salam InternationalCentre for Theoretical Physics, Italy).1 A full list of ISI-MIP modeling groups is given in Appendix 2.
TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CLIMATE EXTREMES, REGIONAL IMPACTS, AND THE CASE FOR RESILIENCEThe report was commissioned by the World Bank’s Global Expert Team for Climate Change Adaptationand the Climate Policy and Finance Department. The Bank team, led by Kanta Kumari Rigaud and ErickFernandes under the supervision of Jane Ebinger, worked closely with the Potsdam Institute for ClimateImpact Research and Climate Analytics. The team comprised Raffaello Cervigni, Nancy Chaarani Meza,Charles Joseph Cormier, Christophe Crepin, Richard Damania, Ian Lloyd, Muthukumara Mani, and AlanMiller. Robert Bisset, Jayna Desai, and Venkat Gopalakrishnan led outreach efforts to partners, the scientificcommunity, and the media. Patricia Braxton and Perpetual Boateng provided valuable support to the team.Scientific oversight was provided throughout by Rosina Bierbaum (University of Michigan) and MichaelMacCracken (Climate Institute, Washington DC). The report benefited greatly from scientific peer reviewers.We would like to thank Pramod Aggarwal, Seleshi Bekele, Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Brahma Chellaney,Robert Correll, Jan Dell, Christopher Field, Andrew Friend, Dieter Gerten, Felina Lansigan, Thomas Lovejoy,Anthony McMichael, Danielle Nierenberg, Ian Noble, Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, Anand Patwardhan, MarkPelling, Thomas Peterson, Mark Tadross, Kevin Trenberth, Tran Thuc, Abdrahmane Wane, and Robert Watson.Valuable guidance and oversight was provided by Rachel Kyte, Mary Barton-Dock, Fionna Douglas,John Roome, Jamal Saghir, and John Stein, and further supported by Zoubida Allaoua, Magdolna Lovei,Iain Shuker, Bernice Van Bronkhorst, and Juergen Voegele.We are grateful to colleagues from the World Bank for their input: Herbert Acquay, Kazi Ahmed, SameerAkbar, Asad Alam, Preeti Arora, Rachid Benmessaoud, Sofia Bettencourt, Anthony Bigio, Patricia Bliss-Guest, Ademola Braimoh, Henrike Brecht, Haleh Bridi, Adam Broadfoot, Penelope Brook, Timothy Brown,Ana Bucher, Guang Chen, Constantine Chikosi, Kenneth Chomitz, Christopher Delgado, Ousmane Diagana,Ousmane Dione, Inguna Dobraja, Philippe Dongier, Franz Dress-Gross, Julia Fraser, Kathryn Funk, HabibaGitay, Olivier Godron, Gloria Grandolini, Poonam Gupta, Stephane Hallegatte, Valerie Hickey, Tomoko Hirata,Waraporn Hirunwatsiri, Bert Hofman, Kathryn Hollifield, Andras Horvai, Ross Hughes, Steven Jaffee, DenisJordy, Christina Leb, Jeffrey Lecksell, Mark Lundell, Henriette von Kaltenborn-Stachau, Isabelle Celine Kane,Stefan Koeberle, Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, Sergiy Kulyk, Andrea Kutter, Victoria Kwakwa, Marie-FrancoiseMarie-Nelly, Kevin McCall, Lasse Melgaard, Juan Carlos Mendoza, Deepak Mishra, John Nash, MoustaphaNdiave, Dzung Huy Nguyen, Iretomiwa Olatunji, Eustache Ouayoro, Doina Petrescu, Christoph Pusch,Madhu Raghunath, Robert Reid, Paola Ridolfi, Onno Ruhl, Michal Rutkowski, Jason Russ, Maria Sarraf,Robert Saum, Tahseen Sayed, Jordan Schwartz, Animesh Shrivastava, Stefanie Sieber, Benedikt Signer,Alanna Simpson, Joop Stoutjesdijk, Madani Tall, Mike Toman, David Olivier Treguer, Ivan Velev, CatherineVidar, Debbie Wetzel, Gregory Wlosinski, Johannes Woelcke, Gregor Wolf, and Winston Yu.We acknowledge with gratitude the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), theGlobal Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), andConnect4Climate (C4C) for their contributions to the production of this report and associated outreachmaterials.
Page 1 and 2: Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic
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Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Tables
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Page 18 and 19: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKey Findings Acros
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Page 22 and 23: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 3 - Agricul
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Page 26 and 27: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYthe East African h
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Page 34 and 35: Aridity Index The Aridity Index (AI
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In this report, South East Asia ref
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Figure 4.1:°°region. Projections
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Integrated Synthesis of Climate Cha
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would be limited to around 1.5°C (
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Figure 4.5:would become nearly year
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According to the Saffir-Simpson hur
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(a common time period in the impact
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is reached in which responses to sm
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declines from 6-12 percent in the M
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terms of population size; however,
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on the physical (i.e., sea level, s
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Tengah, Sulawesi Tenggara, Sumatra
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above 3 between 30°N and 30°S. It
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Box 4.4: Fundamental EcosystemChang
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It is projected that increased weat
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droughts, floods, and increased sto
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Table 4.9:Regional Warming South Ch
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Table 4.9:Sea-level RiseImpactsCoas
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Table 4.9:Aquaculture Marine Fisher
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In this report, South Asia refers t
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Table 5.1: Regional warmingHeatextr
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Sector-based and Thematic ImpactsWa
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Box 5.1: Observed VulnerabilitiesOb
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warming more, especially in the sou
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Figure 5.6:precipitation (i.e., dur
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climate change, which amounts to ab
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Immerzeel, Sperna Weiland, and Bier
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Figure 5.9: a. GWBWCCc. GWBWCCPb. S
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350,000. 104 The storm-surge areas
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to the projections presented in Cha
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Jagadish, Sumfleth, et al. 2009). B
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equirements of plants for evapotran
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Figure 5.13:Figure 5.14: 2whether t
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population growth. Under climate ch
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malnutrition, affecting long-term g
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Climate change is expected to affec
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hydrological regime is agriculture,
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Table 5.5:Sea-level Rise(above pres
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Table 5.5: River Runoff Indus cent
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Table 5.5:Yields All crops Changes
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This chapter identifies hotspots of
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J. Vorosmarty 2000). Thus, when ass
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Figure 6.4:Figure 6.5:in avoided im
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Figure 6.6:% of ecoregions100%90%80
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Figure 6.7:The bright-colored bars
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levels. It is also clear that some
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Hallegatte and Przyluski (2010) fin
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isks. One cluster of impacts that n
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Bias Correction for Subset ofCMIP5
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Box A2.1 model.09 - BalanceHyd
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Box A2.1 Simulator with managedl
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-All indicators have annual tempora
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of the effects of CO 2
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Table A4.1 Sorghum- 2 2 1 -Ground
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Ackerley, D., Booth, B. B. B., Knig
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the National Academy of Sciences of
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Clark, R. T., Brown, S. J., & Murph
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FAO. (2013). Production Quantity of
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He, F., & MacGregor, G. (2007). Sal
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study. Climate Dynamics, 37(3-4), 7
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1950-2011. Journal of Geophysical R
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Mumby, P. J., Iglesias-Prieto, R.,
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Riahi, K., F. Dentener, D. Gielen,
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Villanoy, C., David, L., Cabrera, O
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