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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYthe East African highlands are particularly notable due to theirexposure to three overlapping sectors. Small regions in CentralAmerica and West Africa are also affected.Consequences for DevelopmentClimate change is already undermining progress and prospectsfor development and threatens to deepen vulnerabilities anderode hard-won gains. Consequences are already being felt onevery continent and in every sector. Species are being lost, landsare being inundated, and livelihoods are being threatened. Moredroughts, more floods, more strong storms, and more forest firesare taxing individuals, businesses and governments. Climaterelatedextreme events can push households below the povertytrap threshold, which could lead to greater rural-urban migration(see Box 2). Promoting economic growth and the eradication ofpoverty and inequality will thus be an increasingly challengingtask under future climate change.Actions must be taken to mitigate the pace of climate changeand to adapt to the impacts already felt today. It will be impossibleto lift the poorest on the planet out of poverty if climatechange proceeds unchecked. Strong and decisive action must betaken to avoid a 4°C world—one that is unmanageable and ladenwith unprecedented heat waves and increased human suffering.It is not too late to hold warming near 2°C, and build resilienceto temperatures and other climate impacts that are expected tostill pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, coastalinfrastructure, and human health. A new momentum is needed.Dramatic technological change, steadfast and visionary politicalwill, and international cooperation are required to change thetrajectory of climate change and to protect people and ecosystems.The window for holding warming below 2°C and avoiding a 4°Cworld is closing rapidly, and the time to act is now.Box 2: New Clusters ofVulnerability—Urban Areas-Saharan Africa’s population will live in urban areas compared tomounting pressure. Informal settlements concentrate large populations and ofteninfrastructure and durable housing. In such areas, people are conducive to the transmission of vector and water bornebecome more prevalent with climate change. vulnerable to increases in food prices following productionchange.Climate change poses a particular threat to urban residentsoutlined above. Urban planning and enhanced social protec-resilient communities in the face of climate change.
Table 1:<strong>Heat</strong> extremesDroughtAriditySea-level riseEcosystem shiftsWater availability(Run-off /Groundwaterrecharge)Crop yields,areas and foodproductionYieldsLivestockMarine fisheriesCoastal areasHealth and povertyUnusual heatUnprecedentedCrop growingareasCropproductionAll cropsAbsentIncreasing drought trends ob- -capitaSevere drought impacts on livestock10 --and central Africa, increased risk inwest Africa, possible decrease in easttionsare uncertain 2 rates in western southern Africa andsouthern west Africa; 30 percent increasein recharge rate in some parts ofeastern southern Africa and east Africa of crop-growing areas-192 million tonnes that fails to keep upwith population growth, hence decrease Increased crop losses and damages- 9 12- in southern Africa and severedrought in central Africa,increased risk in west Africa,possible decrease in eastAfrica, but west and east Afri- 3Increase in blue water avail-of west Africa 7 ; decrease inof east AfricaReduced length of grow-percentof B. decumbenscentdecrease in central andwest Africa 11without adaptation 13
Page 1 and 2: Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic
Page 3 and 4: © 2013 International Bank for Reco
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Tables
Page 10 and 11: The report Turn Down the Heat: Clim
Page 12 and 13: The work of the World Bank Group is
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Page 18 and 19: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKey Findings Acros
Page 20 and 21: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 2 practiced
Page 22 and 23: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 3 - Agricul
Page 24 and 25: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCO 2fertilization
Page 28 and 29: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTable 2:Heat extre
Page 30: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEndnotes1 Years in
Page 34 and 35: Aridity Index The Aridity Index (AI
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TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CLIMATE EXTREME
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In this report, South East Asia ref
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Figure 4.1:°°region. Projections
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Integrated Synthesis of Climate Cha
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would be limited to around 1.5°C (
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Figure 4.5:would become nearly year
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According to the Saffir-Simpson hur
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(a common time period in the impact
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is reached in which responses to sm
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declines from 6-12 percent in the M
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terms of population size; however,
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on the physical (i.e., sea level, s
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Tengah, Sulawesi Tenggara, Sumatra
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above 3 between 30°N and 30°S. It
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Box 4.4: Fundamental EcosystemChang
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It is projected that increased weat
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droughts, floods, and increased sto
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Table 4.9:Regional Warming South Ch
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Table 4.9:Sea-level RiseImpactsCoas
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Table 4.9:Aquaculture Marine Fisher
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In this report, South Asia refers t
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Table 5.1: Regional warmingHeatextr
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Sector-based and Thematic ImpactsWa
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Box 5.1: Observed VulnerabilitiesOb
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warming more, especially in the sou
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Figure 5.6:precipitation (i.e., dur
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climate change, which amounts to ab
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Immerzeel, Sperna Weiland, and Bier
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Figure 5.9: a. GWBWCCc. GWBWCCPb. S
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350,000. 104 The storm-surge areas
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to the projections presented in Cha
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Jagadish, Sumfleth, et al. 2009). B
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equirements of plants for evapotran
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Figure 5.13:Figure 5.14: 2whether t
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population growth. Under climate ch
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malnutrition, affecting long-term g
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Climate change is expected to affec
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hydrological regime is agriculture,
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Table 5.5:Sea-level Rise(above pres
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Table 5.5: River Runoff Indus cent
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Table 5.5:Yields All crops Changes
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This chapter identifies hotspots of
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J. Vorosmarty 2000). Thus, when ass
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Figure 6.4:Figure 6.5:in avoided im
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Figure 6.6:% of ecoregions100%90%80
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Figure 6.7:The bright-colored bars
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levels. It is also clear that some
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Hallegatte and Przyluski (2010) fin
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isks. One cluster of impacts that n
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Bias Correction for Subset ofCMIP5
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Box A2.1 model.09 - BalanceHyd
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Box A2.1 Simulator with managedl
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-All indicators have annual tempora
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of the effects of CO 2
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Table A4.1 Sorghum- 2 2 1 -Ground
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Ackerley, D., Booth, B. B. B., Knig
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the National Academy of Sciences of
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Clark, R. T., Brown, S. J., & Murph
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FAO. (2013). Production Quantity of
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He, F., & MacGregor, G. (2007). Sal
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study. Climate Dynamics, 37(3-4), 7
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1950-2011. Journal of Geophysical R
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Mumby, P. J., Iglesias-Prieto, R.,
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Riahi, K., F. Dentener, D. Gielen,
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Sugi, M., Murakami, H., & Yoshimura
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Villanoy, C., David, L., Cabrera, O
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Yumul, G. P., Cruz, N. A., & Servan
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