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Aridity Index The Aridity Index (AI) is an indicator designed foridentifying structurally “arid” regions, that is, regions with along-term average precipitation deficit. AI is defined as totalannual precipitation divided by potential evapotranspiration,with the latter a measure of the amount of water a representativecrop type would need as a function of local conditions such astemperature, incoming radiation and wind speed, over a yearto grow, which is a standardized measure of water demand.Biome A biome is a large geographical area of distinct plant andanimal groups, one of a limited set of major habitats, classifiedby climatic and predominant vegetative types. Biomes include,for example, grasslands, deserts, evergreen or deciduousforests, and tundra. Many different ecosystems exist withineach broadly defined biome, which all share the limited rangeof climatic and environmental conditions within that biome.C3/C4 plants refers to two types of photosynthetic biochemical“pathways”. C3 plants include more than 85 percent of plantson Earth (e.g. most trees, wheat, rice, yams and potatoes) andrespond well to moist conditions and to additional carbondioxide in the atmosphere. C4 plants (for example savannagrasses, maize, sorghum, millet, sugarcane) are more efficientin water and energy use and outperform C3 plants in hot anddry conditions.CAT The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent sciencebasedassessment, which tracks the emission commitmentsand actions by individual countries. The estimates of futureemissions deducted from this assessment serve to analysewarming scenarios that would result from current policy:(a) CAT Reference BAU: a lower reference ‘business-as-usual’(BAU) scenario that includes existing climate policies, but notpledged emission reductions; and (b) CAT Current Pledges:a scenario additionally incorporating reductions currentlypledged internationally by countries.CMIP5 The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) brought together 20 state-of-the-art GCM groups,which generated a large set of comparable climate-projectionsdata. The project provided a framework for coordinated climatechange experiments and includes simulations for assessmentin the IPCC´s AR5.CO 2fertilization The CO 2fertilization effect may increase the rateof photosynthesis mainly in C3 plants and increase water useefficiency, thereby producing increases in agricultural C3 cropsin grain mass and/or number. This effect may to some extentoffset the negative impacts of climate change, although grainprotein content may decline. Long-term effects are uncertainas they heavily depend on a potential physiological long-termacclimation to elevated CO 2, as well as on other limiting factorsincluding soil nutrients, water and light.GCM A General Circulation Model is the most advanced typeof climate model used for projecting changes in climate dueto increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, aerosols andexternal forcings like changes in solar activity and volcaniceruptions. These models contain numerical representationsof physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphereand land surface on a global three-dimensional grid, withthe current generation of GCMs having a typical horizontalresolution of 100 to 300 km.GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the sum of the gross valueadded by all resident producers in the economy plus anyproduct taxes and minus any subsidies not included in thevalue of the products. It is calculated without deductions for
TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CLIMATE EXTREMES, REGIONAL IMPACTS, AND THE CASE FOR RESILIENCEdepreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradationof natural resources.GDP (PPP) per capita is GDP on a purchasing power parity basisdivided by population. Please note: Whereas PPP estimates forOECD countries are quite reliable, PPP estimates for developingcountries are often rough approximations.Hyper-aridity Land areas with very low Aridity Index (AI), generallycoinciding with the great deserts. There is no universallystandardized value for hyper-aridity, and values between 0 and0.05 are classified in this report as hyper-arid.IPCC AR4, AR5 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is the leading body of global climate change assessments.It comprises hundreds of leading scientists worldwideand on a regular basis publishes assessment reports whichgive a comprehensive overview over the most recent scientific,technical and socio-economic information on climate changeand its implications. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) waspublished in 2007. The upcoming Fifth Assessment Report(AR5) will be completed in 2013/2014.ISI-MIP The first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model IntercomparisonProject (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modeling effort whichprovides cross-sectoral global impact assessments, based onthe newly developed climate [Representative ConcentrationPathways (RCPs)] and socio-economic scenarios. More than30 models across five sectors (agriculture, water resources,biomes, health and infrastructure) participated in this modelingexercise.MAGICC Carbon-cycle/climate model of “reduced complexity,” hereapplied in a probabilistic set-up to provide “best-guess” globalmeanwarming projections, with uncertainty ranges related tothe uncertainties in carbon-cycle, climate system and climatesensitivity. The model is constrained by historical observationsof hemispheric land/ocean temperatures and historical estimatesfor ocean heat-uptake, reliably determines the atmosphericburden of CO 2concentrations compared to high-complexitycarbon-cycle models and is also able to project global-meannear-surface warming in line with estimates made by GCMs.Pre-industrial levels (what it means to have present 0.8°Cwarming) The instrumental temperature records show thatthe 20-year average of global-mean near-surface air temperaturein 1986–2005 was about 0.6°C higher than the averageover 1851–1879. There are, however, considerable year-toyearvariations and uncertainties in data. In addition the20-year average warming over 1986–2005 is not necessarilyrepresentative of present-day warming. Fitting a linear trend overthe period 1901 to 2010 gives a warming of 0.8°C since “earlyindustrialization.” Global-mean near-surface air temperaturesin the instrumental records of surface-air temperature havebeen assembled dating back to about 1850. The number ofmeasurement stations in the early years is small and increasesrapidly with time. Industrialization was well on its way by1850 and 1900, which implies using 1851–1879 as a baseperiod, or 1901 as a start for linear trend analysis might leadto an underestimate of current and future warming, but globalgreenhouse-gas emissions at the end of the 19 th century werestill small and uncertainties in temperature reconstructionsbefore this time are considerably larger.RCP Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are based oncarefully selected scenarios for work on integrated assessmentmodeling, climate modeling, and modeling and analysis ofimpacts. Nearly a decade of new economic data, informationabout emerging technologies, and observations of environmentalfactors, such as land use and land cover change, are reflected inthis work. Rather than starting with detailed socioeconomic storylinesto generate emissions scenarios, the RCPs are consistentsets of projections of only the components of radiative forcing(the change in the balance between incoming and outgoingradiation to the atmosphere caused primarily by changes inatmospheric composition) that are meant to serve as input forclimate modeling. These radiative forcing trajectories are notassociated with unique socioeconomic or emissions scenarios,and instead can result from different combinations of economic,technological, demographic, policy, and institutional futures.RCP2.6 RCP2.6 refers to a scenario which is representative of theliterature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increaseof global mean temperature to 2°C above the pre-industrialperiod. This emissions path is used by many studies that arebeing assessed for the IPCC´s Fifth Assessment Report and isthe underlying low emissions scenario for impacts assessed inother parts of this report. In this report we refer to the RCP2.6as a 2°C World.RCP8.5 RCP8.5 refers to a scenario with no-climate-policy baselinewith comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions which isused by many studies that are being assessed for the upcomingIPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This scenario is also theunderlying high emissions scenario for impacts assessed inother parts of this report. In this report we refer to the RCP8.5as a 4°C World above the pre-industrial period.Severe & extreme Indicating uncommon (negative) consequences.These terms are often associated with an additional qualifier
Page 1 and 2: Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic
Page 3 and 4: © 2013 International Bank for Reco
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Tables
Page 10 and 11: The report Turn Down the Heat: Clim
Page 12 and 13: The work of the World Bank Group is
Page 16 and 17: This report focuses on the risks of
Page 18 and 19: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKey Findings Acros
Page 20 and 21: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 2 practiced
Page 22 and 23: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 3 - Agricul
Page 24 and 25: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCO 2fertilization
Page 26 and 27: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYthe East African h
Page 28 and 29: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTable 2:Heat extre
Page 30: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEndnotes1 Years in
Page 36: like “unusual” or “unpreceden
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TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CLIMATE EXTREME
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In this report, South East Asia ref
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Figure 4.1:°°region. Projections
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Integrated Synthesis of Climate Cha
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would be limited to around 1.5°C (
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Figure 4.5:would become nearly year
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According to the Saffir-Simpson hur
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(a common time period in the impact
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is reached in which responses to sm
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declines from 6-12 percent in the M
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terms of population size; however,
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on the physical (i.e., sea level, s
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Tengah, Sulawesi Tenggara, Sumatra
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above 3 between 30°N and 30°S. It
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Box 4.4: Fundamental EcosystemChang
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It is projected that increased weat
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droughts, floods, and increased sto
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Table 4.9:Regional Warming South Ch
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Table 4.9:Sea-level RiseImpactsCoas
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Table 4.9:Aquaculture Marine Fisher
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In this report, South Asia refers t
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Table 5.1: Regional warmingHeatextr
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Sector-based and Thematic ImpactsWa
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Box 5.1: Observed VulnerabilitiesOb
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warming more, especially in the sou
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Figure 5.6:precipitation (i.e., dur
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climate change, which amounts to ab
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Immerzeel, Sperna Weiland, and Bier
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Figure 5.9: a. GWBWCCc. GWBWCCPb. S
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350,000. 104 The storm-surge areas
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to the projections presented in Cha
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Jagadish, Sumfleth, et al. 2009). B
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equirements of plants for evapotran
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Figure 5.13:Figure 5.14: 2whether t
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population growth. Under climate ch
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malnutrition, affecting long-term g
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Climate change is expected to affec
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hydrological regime is agriculture,
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Table 5.5:Sea-level Rise(above pres
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Table 5.5: River Runoff Indus cent
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Table 5.5:Yields All crops Changes
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This chapter identifies hotspots of
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J. Vorosmarty 2000). Thus, when ass
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Figure 6.4:Figure 6.5:in avoided im
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Figure 6.6:% of ecoregions100%90%80
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Figure 6.7:The bright-colored bars
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levels. It is also clear that some
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Hallegatte and Przyluski (2010) fin
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isks. One cluster of impacts that n
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Bias Correction for Subset ofCMIP5
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Box A2.1 model.09 - BalanceHyd
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Box A2.1 Simulator with managedl
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-All indicators have annual tempora
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of the effects of CO 2
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Table A4.1 Sorghum- 2 2 1 -Ground
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Ackerley, D., Booth, B. B. B., Knig
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the National Academy of Sciences of
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Clark, R. T., Brown, S. J., & Murph
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FAO. (2013). Production Quantity of
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He, F., & MacGregor, G. (2007). Sal
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study. Climate Dynamics, 37(3-4), 7
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1950-2011. Journal of Geophysical R
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Mumby, P. J., Iglesias-Prieto, R.,
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Riahi, K., F. Dentener, D. Gielen,
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Sugi, M., Murakami, H., & Yoshimura
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Villanoy, C., David, L., Cabrera, O
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Yumul, G. P., Cruz, N. A., & Servan
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