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This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Buildingon the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided 2 -Scope of the ReportThe Global PictureThe first Turn Down the Heat report found that projections ofglobal warming, sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensity, aridityand drought are expected to be felt disproportionately in thedeveloping countries around the equatorial regions relative to thecountries at higher latitudes. This report extends this previousanalysis by focusing on the risks of climate change to developmentin three critical regions of the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, SouthEast Asia and South Asia.While covering a range of sectors, this report focuses on howclimate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources,coastal zone fisheries, and coastal safety are likely to increase, oftensignificantly, as global warming climbs from present levels of 0.8°Cup to 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C above pre-industrial levels. This reportillustrates the range of impacts that much of the developing worldis already experiencing, and would be further exposed to, and itindicates how these risks and disruptions could be felt differently inother parts of the world. Figure 1 shows projections of temperatureand sea-level rise impacts at 2°C and 4°C global warming.Scientific reviews published since the first Turn Down the Heatreport indicate that recent greenhouse gas emissions and futureemissions trends imply higher 21 st century emission levels thanpreviously projected. As a consequence, the likelihood of 4°Cwarming being reached or exceeded this century has increased,in the absence of near-term actions and further commitments toreduce emissions. This report reaffirms the International EnergyAgency’s 2012 assessment that in the absence of further mitigationaction there is a 40 percent chance of warming exceeding4°C by 2100 and a 10 percent chance of it exceeding 5°C in thesame period.The 4°C scenario does not suggest that global mean temperatureswould stabilize at this level; rather, emissions scenarios leadingto such warming would very likely lead to further increases in bothtemperature and sea-level during the 22 nd century. Furthermore,2 Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, launched bythe World Bank in November 2012.
TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CLIMATE EXTREMES, REGIONAL IMPACTS, AND THE CASE FOR RESILIENCEeven at present warming of 0.8°C above pre-industrial levels, theobserved climate change impacts are serious and indicate howdramatically human activity can alter the natural environmentupon which human life depends.The projected climate changes and impacts are derivedfrom a combined approach involving a range of climate modelsof varying complexity, including the state of the art CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), semi-empiricalmodeling, the “Simple Climate Model” (SCM), the Model forthe Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change(MAGICC; see Appendix 1) and a synthesis of peer reviewedliterature.Figure 1 ***Upper panel:Lower panel:industrial period.
Page 1 and 2: Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic
Page 3 and 4: © 2013 International Bank for Reco
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS Tables
Page 10 and 11: The report Turn Down the Heat: Clim
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Page 18 and 19: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKey Findings Acros
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Page 22 and 23: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFigure 3 - Agricul
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Page 26 and 27: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYthe East African h
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TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CLIMATE EXTREME
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In this report, South East Asia ref
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Figure 4.1:°°region. Projections
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Integrated Synthesis of Climate Cha
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would be limited to around 1.5°C (
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Figure 4.5:would become nearly year
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According to the Saffir-Simpson hur
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(a common time period in the impact
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is reached in which responses to sm
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declines from 6-12 percent in the M
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terms of population size; however,
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on the physical (i.e., sea level, s
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Tengah, Sulawesi Tenggara, Sumatra
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above 3 between 30°N and 30°S. It
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Box 4.4: Fundamental EcosystemChang
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It is projected that increased weat
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droughts, floods, and increased sto
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Table 4.9:Regional Warming South Ch
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Table 4.9:Sea-level RiseImpactsCoas
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Table 4.9:Aquaculture Marine Fisher
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In this report, South Asia refers t
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Table 5.1: Regional warmingHeatextr
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Sector-based and Thematic ImpactsWa
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Box 5.1: Observed VulnerabilitiesOb
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warming more, especially in the sou
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Figure 5.6:precipitation (i.e., dur
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climate change, which amounts to ab
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Immerzeel, Sperna Weiland, and Bier
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Figure 5.9: a. GWBWCCc. GWBWCCPb. S
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350,000. 104 The storm-surge areas
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to the projections presented in Cha
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Jagadish, Sumfleth, et al. 2009). B
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equirements of plants for evapotran
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Figure 5.13:Figure 5.14: 2whether t
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population growth. Under climate ch
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malnutrition, affecting long-term g
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Climate change is expected to affec
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hydrological regime is agriculture,
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Table 5.5:Sea-level Rise(above pres
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Table 5.5: River Runoff Indus cent
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Table 5.5:Yields All crops Changes
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This chapter identifies hotspots of
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J. Vorosmarty 2000). Thus, when ass
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Figure 6.4:Figure 6.5:in avoided im
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Figure 6.6:% of ecoregions100%90%80
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Figure 6.7:The bright-colored bars
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levels. It is also clear that some
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Hallegatte and Przyluski (2010) fin
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isks. One cluster of impacts that n
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Bias Correction for Subset ofCMIP5
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Box A2.1 model.09 - BalanceHyd
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Box A2.1 Simulator with managedl
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-All indicators have annual tempora
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of the effects of CO 2
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Table A4.1 Sorghum- 2 2 1 -Ground
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Ackerley, D., Booth, B. B. B., Knig
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the National Academy of Sciences of
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Clark, R. T., Brown, S. J., & Murph
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FAO. (2013). Production Quantity of
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He, F., & MacGregor, G. (2007). Sal
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study. Climate Dynamics, 37(3-4), 7
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1950-2011. Journal of Geophysical R
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Mumby, P. J., Iglesias-Prieto, R.,
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Riahi, K., F. Dentener, D. Gielen,
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Sugi, M., Murakami, H., & Yoshimura
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Villanoy, C., David, L., Cabrera, O
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Yumul, G. P., Cruz, N. A., & Servan
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