Hochwasserschutz in Bangladesh - TomBlog

Hochwasserschutz in BangladeshReferenten:Peter Reese, Thomas LangkampStudiengang: Diplom, Geographie29. Juni SoSe 2005, Uni HHReferat im Rahmen der Übung:Klimawandel, Umweltschutz und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit:Grundlagen, Strategien und ProjekteLeitung:Dr. Jacques Leonardi

GliederungWir● stellen das Projekt und seinen Kontext kurz vor●beleuchten die Hochwasser-Problematik●zeigen dann detailliert die Maßnahmen, Bautenund Probleme des Projekts●fassen die Evaluation der Verantwortlichenzusammen●sagen unsere eigene Meinung

Das Projekt:secondary towns integrated floodprotection project● Integriertes Hochwasserschutz-Projekt für 6sekundär betroffener Städte in Bangladesh●insgesamt 1,15 Millionen Einwohnern●eines von bisher 31 Wassermanagement-Projektenin Bangladesh

Das Projekt●Der Flut-Aktions-Plan (FAP von 1989) derRegierung identifizierte 15 sekundäre Städte.●Den übrigen 9 Städten wird nun in der laufendenPhase 2 des Projektes geholfen.●primär betroffen: Hauptstadt Dhaka (91er Projektfür 92 Mio. $)

ProblematikÜberflutungen sind ein ständiges Problem im dichtbesiedelten Bangladesh! (fast 4fache Dichte Deutschlands)

Problematik●Sommermonsun (Juni - September): ImBereich des GBM-Beckens enorme Niederschläge●Über 90% des GBM-Beckens liegen außerhalbBangladeshs.

Problematik●20% des Landes werden im Schnitt jährlichüberflutet●70%, wenn sich die Hochwasser aller drei FlüsseüberlappenBeispiel: 1987/88 und 1998Fluttypen●●●●Tide-beeinflusste FlutFlussflutRegenflutSpringflut

ProblematikVerschlechterung der Überflutungssituation seit1950●●●starker Anstieg der Flusswasserspiegelhöhere ökonomische Schäden bei Flutenhöhere Anzahl betroffener Menschen? Ist der Klimawandel schuld?Fakt: Temperaturanstieg um 0,5°C

ProblematikMeeresspiegelanstieg: jährlich 7mmKein Niederschlaganstieg im GBM!Anstieg der Probleme durch anthropogenenEinfluss auf Boden und Vegetation– Waldrodung– Urbanisierung! Bevölkerungsexplosion!

Problematik●Waldrodung: im gesamten GBM-Basin– Feuerholz– Ackerflächen●●In Nepal > 50% des Ur-Waldes gerodet– speziell Hangerosion Degradation der BödenMio. t Sediment werdenFlussabwärts gespült (Tafel)In Bangladesh 35% des Waldes gerodet imVergleich 1973und heute.

ProblematikUrbanisierung:● Eindeichung / Verschmälerung der Flüsse(Schaffung von Siedlungen und Ackerflächen)– Beispiel: 5695km Deich errichtet– Beispiel: Durchschnittsbreite Ganges 1973: 1,3 km1985: 1 kmAbnahme der Wasserspeicher-Kapazität in Flüssen

Problematik●●●ungeplante Urbanisierung– fehlende Infrastrukturkeine Wasserspeicher-Kapazität des Bodens– rasantes Abflussverhalten führt schnell zuWasseraufstauungenHygiene– 50% der Stadt-Bevölkerung lebt in Slums– 30% an der Grenze zum Hungertod

BevölkerungswachstumWaldrodungUrbanisierungverstärkterSedimenttransportEindeichung /FlussverschmälerungFlussbetterhöhung, Wasserspiegelanstieg undverminderte Wasserspeicher-KapazitätÜberflutungen

Maßnahmen●●●Okt. 1990: Kredite bewilligt, PlanungsstartMai 1993: Beginn (57 Monate veranschlagt)Dez. 2000: Ende (tatsächliche Dauer: 92 Monate)● Gesamtkosten: 70 Mio. $, davon gut 50 Mio. $Kredit von der Asiatischen Entwicklungsbank(ADB; 3. Engagement)● erwartete Kosten Phase 2: 130 Mio. $, 80 Mio. $von der ADB bis Juni 2009

Maßnahmen1. städtischer Hochwasserschutz (Teil A: 24 Mio. $):● Bau und Ausbesserung von Deichen● Schutzmauern● Flussufer-Erosionsschutz undFlussufer-Verkleidungen2. Entwässerungsmaßnahmen (Teil B: 20 Mio. $)● Gräben● Abwasserrohre

Maßnahmen3. Verbesserung städtischer Dienstleistungen undInfrastrukturen insbesondere in den starkbetroffenen Slums (Teil C: 7 Mio. $)● Müll- und Abwasserentsorgung / Kanalisation● öffentliche Toiletten

Zu 3.: Kläranlangen(septic tanks)

Zu 3.: Trinkwasserversorgung, Wasserfilteranlagenbzw. Sickergruben (soak pits)

Bau einerSickergrube

Bau einerSickergrube

Maßnahmen4. Logistik (Teil D: 5 Mio. $)● Allein 3 Mio. $ für Vermessung und Kartierung● Management, Beratung, Umweltschutz, Monitoring,Sozioökonomische Berichte● Entwicklung von Gemeinschaftsprogrammen, umdie Bevölkerung zu beteiligen● institutionelle / politische Weiterentwicklung

Maßnahmen:ProblemeVerzögerungen durch ungeplante Kosten von 14Mio. $ wegen:● bürokratischem Prüfungswirrwar,● personellen Engpässen● nicht vorhergesehenen Finanzkosten, wie Inflation● politischen Unruhen und● Wetterproblemen (Flutschäden 1998: 2 Mio. $ |Starkregen)

502IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS, VOL. 21, NO. 3, MAYIJUNE 1991what feels pleasurable, and what hurts.It is also widely known that emotions affect memory.Emotionally traumatic experiences are remembered in vividdetail for years, while emotionally nonstimulating everydaysights and sounds are forgotten within minutes after they areexperienced.Emotions are popularly believed to be something apartfrom intelligence-irrational, beyond reason or mathematicalanalysis. The theory presented here maintains the opposite.In this model, emotion is a critical component of biologicalintelligence, necessary for evaluating sensory input, selectinggoals, directing behavior, and controlling learning.It is widely believed that machines cannot experience emotion,or that it would be dangerous, or even morally wrong toattempt to endow machines with emotions. However, unlessmachines have the capacity to make value judgments (i.e., toevaluate costs, risks, and benefits, to decide which course ofaction, and what expected results, are good, and which are bad)machines can never be intelligent or autonomous. What is thebasis for deciding to do one thing and not another, even toturn right rather than left, if there is no mechanism for makingvalue judgments? Without value judgments to support decisionmaking, nothing can be intelligent, be it biological or artificial.Some examples of value state-variables are listed below,along with suggestions of how they might be computed. Thislist is by no means complete.Good is a high level positive value state-variable. It may beassigned to the entity frame of any event, object, or person.It can be computed as a weighted sum, or spatiotemporalintegration, of all other positive value state-variables assignedto the same entity frame.Bad is a high level negative value state-variable. It can becomputed as a weighted sum, or spatiotemporal integration,of all other negative value state-variables assigned to an entityframe.Pleasure: Physical pleasure is a mid-level internal positivevalue state-variable that can be assigned to objects, events,or specific regions of the body. In the latter case, pleasuremay be computed indirectly as a function of neuronal sensoryinputs from specific regions of the body. Emotional pleasureis a high level internal positive value state-variable that can becomputed as a function of highly processed information aboutsituations in the world.Pain: Physical pain is a low level internal negative valuestate-variable that can be assigned to specific regions of thebody. It may be computed directly as a function of inputs frompain sensors in specific regions of the body. Emotional pain isa high level internal negative value state-variable that may becomputed indirectly from highly processed information aboutsituations in the world.Success-observed is a positive value state-variable thatrepresents the degree to which task goals are met, plus theamount of benefit derived therefrom.Success-expected is a value state-variable that indicates thedegree of expected success (or the estimated probability ofsuccess). It may be stored in a task frame, or computedduring planning on the basis of world model predictions. Whencompared with success-observed it provides a base-line formeasuring whether goals were met on, behind, or ahead ofschedule; at, over, or under estimated costs; and with resultingbenefits equal to, less than, or greater than those expected.Hope is a positive value state-variable produced whenthe world model predicts a future success in achieving agood situation or event. When high hope is assigned to atask frame, the BG module may intensify behavior directedtoward completing the task and achieving the anticipated goodsituation or event.Frustration is a negative value state-variable that indicatesan inability to achieve a goal. It may cause a BG module toabandon an ongoing task, and switch to an alternate behavior.The level of frustration may depend on the priority attached tothe goal, and on the length of time spent in trying to achieve it.Love is a positive value state-variable produced as a functionof the perceived attractiveness and desirability of an object orperson. When assigned to the frame of an object or person,it tends to produce behavior designed to approach, protect, orpossess the loved object or person.Hate is a negative value state-variable produced as a functionof pain, anger, or humiliation. When assigned to the frameof an object or person, hate tends to produce behavior designedto attack, harm, or destroy the hated object or person.Comfort is a positive value state-variable produced by theabsence of (or relief from) stress, pain, or fear. Comfort can beassigned to the frame of an object, person, or region of spacethat is safe, sheltering, or protective. When under stress or inpain, an intelligent system may seek out places or persons withentity frames that contain a large comfort value.Fear is a negative value state-variable produced when thesensory processing system recognizes, or the world modelpredicts, a bad or dangerous situation or event. Fear may beassigned to the attribute list of an entity, such as an object,person, situation, event, or region of space. Fear tends toproduce behavior designed to avoid the feared situation, event,or region, or flee from the feared object or person.Joy is a positive value state-variable produced by therecognition of an unexpectedly good situation or event. It isassigned to the self-object frame.Despair is a negative value state-variable produced by worldmodel predictions of unavoidable, or unending, bad situationsor events. Despair may be caused by the inability of thebehavior generation planners to discover an acceptable planfor avoiding bad situations or events.Happiness is a positive value state-variable produced bysensory processing observations and world model predictionsof good situations and events. Happiness can be computed asa function of a number of positive (rewarding) and negative(punishing) value state-variables.Confidence is an estimate of probability of correctness. Aconfidence state-variable may be assigned to the frame of anyentity in the world model. It may also be assigned to the selfframe, to indicate the level of confidence that a creature has inits own capabilities to deal with a situation. A high value ofconfidence may cause the BG hierarchy to behave confidentlyor aggressively.Uncertainty is a lack of confidence. Uncertainty assignedto the frame of an external object may cause attention to be

Evaluation:sozioökonomische Veränderungen●52% in Habiganj65% in Khulna> 80% in den vier anderen Städten berichten vonbesserer Mobilität●49% in Khulna95% in den übrigen fünf Städten berichten voneinem Rückgang vom Stauwasser verursachtenKrankheiten.

Evaluation:sozioökonomische VeränderungenProbleme:●●●●Siedeln von Menschen auf der Flussseite desDeichesSlumverbesserung mit Projektende eingestelltMüllproblem: ungesicherte DeponienFinanzierung durch SteuernZwei Städte haben eine positive Finanzbilanz

Evaluation:Finanzen

Evaluation: Nachhaltigkeit●●Stadtverwaltung kann für Kosten derInstandhaltung auf Dauer nicht aufkommen.Projektgemeinschaften müssen stattdessen fürInstandhaltung motiviert werden.●●Die dauerhafte Wirksamkeit der Bauten istungewiss.Müllproblem soll nachträglich in Angriffgenommen werden.Projekt wird insgesamt als Erfolg gewertet.Zuversicht für Phase 2, da behördliche Prozesseeingeübt sind.

Links und Quellenhttp://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/JCDR-67AUT4?OpenDocumenthttp://www.lcgbangladesh.org/inventory/9_inventory.pdfhttp://www.meghbarta.org/2001/june/dvlp.htmlhttp://www.bssnews.net/index.php?genID=BSS-03-2004-12-02&id=7http://www.bssnews.net/index.php?genID=BSS-03-2004-12-02&id=7--> pdfs speziell zum Projekthttp://www.adb.org/Documents/PPARs/BAN/ppa_ban_24096.pdfhttp://www.asiandevbank.org/Documents/RRPs/BAN/rrp-ban-26427.pdfhttp://www.asiandevbank.org/Documents/RRPs/BAN/rrp-R18092.pdfhttp://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2003/1307_Flood_Mitigation_Project_for_Bangladeshs_Secondary_Towns/default.asphttp://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2004/5357_bangladesh_flood_protection_saving_lives/http://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2004/5494_bangladesh_flood_threat_monitor_unit/default.asphttp://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2003/1416_Bangladesh_Loan_Signings_for_Five_Bangladesh_Projects/default.asphttp://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2002/528_Bangladesh_Billion_Loan/default.asphttp://www.adb.org/media/Articles/2005/7711_Bangladesh_water_issues/default.asphttp://www.wcmap.org/images/soakpits.jpghttp://cpreec.org/04_articles/harvesting_rainwater/harvesting_rainwater.htmlhttp://www.foxhyllengineering.com/mali/chapter10.htmlhttp://www.schoolsanitation.org/BasicPrinciples/WaterFlushToilets.htmlhttp://www.agry.purdue.edu/landuse/septic/cttpp2/images/baffle.gifhttp://www.nutriteck.com/aqualogics/septic.htmlhttp://ossf.tamu.edu/ossf_two_compartment_septic_tank.jpghttp://www.agnr.umd.edu/users/wye/personel/Miller/septic.htmlhttp://www.dfidbangladesh.org/images/Flood03.jpghttp://www.caritas.org.au/images/emergencies/bangladesh_appeal_2.jpghttp://www.innovations-report.com/bilder_neu/5678_flood.jpghttp://www.thedailystar.net/2004/07/26/d407261501112.htm

Fazit„Bangladesh is undergoing 50 years of water development and flood control projectthrough international development agencies. But the sufferings of people are notminimized. On the other hand development projects generate successive projects.The projects, justified mostly in terms of increased cereal crop production (WorldBank 1997), has been created very twisty scenario. 50 per cent of the populationlive below poverty line. Agricultural activities mostly depend on hybrid seed,fertilizer, and insecticide. On the other hand severity of flooding increased.Enormous Dead River, drainage congestion, water logging, bio-diversity loss andhuge debt burden are common feature of our country after passing 5 decades ofthese development exercises.“Quelle: http://www.meghbarta.org/2001/june/dvlp.html