PROPOSAL FOR MALI - Adaptation Fund

Figure 2: Climate change projections for Africa (IPCC AR4, 2007)Figure 11.2Models do agree, however, on the increased unpredictability of rainfall, and this is consistentwith local observations. Figure 2 shows a prediction of overall higher temperatures and anuncertainty in rainfall variability. For West Africa the IPCC projects a range of +1.8°C to+4.7 o C for the period 2081-2100 (with a median of +3.3 o C). Temperature increases are likelyto be greater in the Northern half of Mali than in the South. 4 It is clear, however, that climatechange is expected to increase inter-annual variability and the occurrence of extremeclimatic events. It is also likely that there will be an increase in intra-seasonal variability, forexample an increase in the number of dry spells during the rainy season. 5Climate Change and Livelihood Vulnerability in MaliMali is ranked 175 in the Human Development Index out of 187 countries and categorized inthe group of countries considered of low human development with a great share of themultidimensional poor suffering deprivations in environmental services. Currently, 43% of thepopulation is living below the income poverty line (in purchasing power parity terms (PPP) of$1.25 a day). 6The Human Development Report 2011 further highlights that 59.5% of the population is livingon degraded land and only 29.2% have satisfactory water quality. The current population of15.8 million in 2011 is projected to increase to 26.8 million by 2030, severely affecting thecarrying capacity of the natural resource base, as well as increasing the ecological footprintwhich is currently 1.9 hectare per capita. The ecological footprint represents the amount ofbiologically productive land and sea area that a country requires to produce the resources itconsumes and to absorb the waste it generates. Although there is no record of the extent of4 Christensen et al. (2007). Regional Climate ions. IPCC WG II Chapter 11. The uncertainty is mainly due to theinability of most models to produce „semi-realistic‟ simulations of the Sahel drought, the lack of vegetationfeedback in the models and the fact that small changes in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone would producelarge changes in rainfall casts doubt on ions for precipitation5 Ebi, K., Smith, J. (2006). Mali Pilot Study: Climate Change and Agriculture In Zignasso. Final Report.Washington DC: U.S. Agency for International Development.6 UNDP (2011). Human Development Report 2011 Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All16