Vol 16 2004 The Monthly July.pdf - Central Statistical Office of Zambia

The MonthlyHigher Maize Grain Prices, Fuel and TransportCosts Influence July InflationAnnual food inflation was recorded at 19.9 percentgaining 1.2 percentage points on the June rate of 18.7percent. From June to July 2004, the index for foodincreased by 0.4 percent.Relatively higher prices were recorded for some fooditems, especially maize grain, other cereals, freshmeat, fish, dried Kapenta, dressed chicken, driedbeans, shelled groundnuts, milk and milk products,eggs, cooking oil, salt and other processed foodproducts. Price reductions were however registeredfor maize meal, fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, sweetpotatoes, and raw cassava tubers.Annual non-food inflation rate stood at 19.0 percent,increasing by 0.5 of a percentage point on the Junerate of 18.5 percent. Between June and July 2004, theNon-Food index increased by 0.9 percent. Non-foodinflation was largely due to increases in the cost offuel, mini bus fares, household energy (paraffin,candles), house rent, furniture and householdappliances, leisure goods (television sets, videorecorders), clothing and footwear.Maize Grain Prices RiseA comparison of prices between June and July 2004,shows that the average price of Maize Grainmeasured in a 20-litre tin increased by 8.5 percent,from K9,468 in June to K10,271 in July 2004. Theaverage price per 1kg of dressed chicken increased by1.4 percent, while the price per 1kg of dried SiavongaKapenta went up by 4.2 percent. However, maizemeal prices dropped during the month. For instance,the average price per 25kg bag of Roller Mealdropped by 3.2 percent, from K25,053 in June toK24,249 in July 2004.National Average Prices for selectedproductsProduct June JulyPercentagechange(%)Central Statistical OfficeInternational TradeExports Down in June 2004The total value of export earnings in June wasK564,947 million as compared to K715,736 million inMay 2004. This is equivalent to 21 percent decline inthe total value of export revenue. On the otherhand, imports recorded K932,676 million in May ascompared to K936,833 million in June 2004. Ingeneral, exports have shown a downward trend whileimports have increased leading to a trade deficit inJune of K 371,886 million.Total Exports, Imports & Trade Balance,January to June 2004, (K’ Millions)PeriodImports Domestic Re-Exports Total Exports Trade(cif) Exports (fob) (fob) (fob) BalanceJan-04 600,902 444,799 2,160 446,959 -153,943Feb-04 587,700 431,473 1,282 432,755 -154,945Mar-04 814,284 637,604 9,948 647,552 -166,732Sub - Total Q1 2,002,886 1,513,876 13,390 1,527,266 -475,620Apr-04 757,199 608,389 11,906 620,295 -136,904May-04 932,676 709,643 6,093 715,736 -216,940Jun-04* 936,833 562,006 2,941 564,947 -371,886Sub - Total Q2 2,626,708 1,880,038 20,940 1,900,978 -725,730Grand Total 4,629,594 3,393,914 34,330 3,428,244 -1,201,350Note: (*) ProvisionalSource: CSO, International Trade Statistics,2004Exports, Imports & Trade Balance, Januaryto June 2004, (K’ Millions)1,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000-200,000-400,000-600,000Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04*Imports (cif) Total Exports (fob) Trade BalanceWhite maize 20 ltr tin 9,468 10,271 8.5White breakfast 25kg 32,718 32,342 -1.1White roller 25kg 25,053 24,249 -3.2Mixed cut 1 kg 11,011 11,354 3.1Dried Beans 1 kg 3,962 4,424 11.7Shelled Groundnuts 1kg 3,788 4,415 16.6Dressed Chicken 1kg 12,789 12,972 1.4Dried kapenta Siavonga 26,422 27,537 4.2Mini bus fare Chilenje toTown1,300 1,500 15.4Petrol 1ltr 4,365 4,601 5.4Diesel 1ltr 3,800 3,981 4.8Paraffin 1ltr 2,864 2,962 3.4Page 2

The MonthlyImports by HS sections, January – June2004, K’MillionsSection DescriptionJan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04*1 Live Animals; Animal Products 1,934 1,938 2,675 3,668 4,274 3,4842 Vegetables Products 21,327 30,248 39,687 27,401 13,554 32,9953 Animal Or Vegetables Fats And Oils And Their Cleavages 13,848 22,006 16,942 14,560 14,467 15,6964 Prepared Foodstuffs; Beverages, Spirits And Vinegar 12,428 9,481 8,070 9,053 10,059 8,1065 Mineral Products 138,187 83,599 130,808 92,752 115,386 132,7316 Products Of The Chemical Or Allied Industries 88,018 96,936 83,058 66,008 90,566 124,4717 Plastics And Articles Thereof;Rubber And Articles 29,594 32,529 37,895 38,273 72,097 63,4788 Raw Hides And Skins, Leather, Furskins And Articles Thereof; 1,098 486 774 794 798 7179 Wood And Articles Of Wood; Wood Charcoal; Cork And Artcles 484 1,053 2,174 526 1,167 79610 Pulp Of Wood Or Of Other Fibrous Cellulosic Material; Recovered 24,865 19,757 113,026 160,949 170,726 133,15711 Textiles And Textile Articles 29,734 18,958 19,676 16,732 20,388 22,24512 Footwear,Headgear,Umbrellas,Sun Umbrellas 4,853 4,194 3,904 3,196 3,256 4,14313 Articles Of Stone, Plaster,Cement, Asbestos, Mica Or Si 8,707 7,090 6,387 6,234 8,249 11,46314 Natural Or Cultured Pearls, Precious Or Semi-Precious Stones 742 22 69 32 1,183 3615 Base Metals And Artcles Of Base Metal 44,234 51,621 73,648 60,863 85,135 86,60916 Machinery And Mechanical Appliances; Electrical Equip 110,138 136,770 209,470 186,500 240,250 202,05617 Vehicles,Aircraft, Vessels And Associated Transport Equip 51,716 58,238 52,400 52,172 67,419 74,37718 Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring 11,585 5,861 7,923 4,804 7,512 12,81019 Arms And Ammunition;Parts And Parts And Accessories 64 147 52 892 53 27720 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 7,344 6,764 5,632 11,736 6,130 7,13521 Works Of Art,Collectors Pieces And Antiques 3 2 13 53 5 53TOTAL: 600,902 587,700 814,284 757,199 932,676 936,834HS – Harmonised SystemNote: (*) ProvisionalSource: CSO, International Trade Statistics, 2004The increase in June import values over May wasmainly due to significant increases in expenditure onChemical products (K90,566 million to K124,471million), Vegetable products (K13,554 million toK32,995 million), Mineral Products (K115,386million to K132,731 million) and vehicles (K67,419million to K74,377 million) among others.Exports by HS sections, January – June2004, K’MillionsSection Description Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04*1 Live Animals; Animal Products 971 2,124 1,625 4,899 1,975 2,5882 Vegetables Products 24,314 42,419 41,516 37,768 52,426 33,3013 Animal Or Vegetables Fats And Oils And Their Cleavages 441 506 394 206 376 1724 Prepared Foodstuffs; Beverages, Spirits And Vinegar 18,199 33,934 16,302 56,675 65,525 45,7495 Mineral Products 14,314 22,369 52,925 36,289 34,725 32,6596 Products Of The Chemical Or Allied Industries 3,016 10,475 61,122 3,435 4,571 4,8847 Plastics And Articles Thereof;Rubber And Articles 855 703 742 948 1,298 1,2158 Raw Hides And Skins, Leather, Furskins And Articles Thereof; 979 563 1,558 965 3,144 1,6689 Wood And Articles Of Wood; Wood Charcoal; Cork And Artcles 943 1,062 2,246 2,115 1,468 1,78410 Pulp Of Wood Or Of Other Fibrous Cellulosic Material; Recovered 13,438 588 9,831 4,487 5,376 8,14211 Textiles And Textile Articles 19,001 20,567 17,664 20,324 157,565 31,22312 Footwear,Headgear,Umbrellas,Sun Umbrellas 1,046 1,464 1,439 1,397 2,609 1,79913 Articles Of Stone, Plaster,Cement, Asbestos, Mica Or Si 28 43 2 43 112 27514 Natural Or Cultured Pearls, Precious Or Semi-Precious Stones 17,527 7,701 14,869 14,760 4,479 9,28615 Base Metals And Artcles Of Base Metal 329,505284,883421,950 411,379 371,318384,92816 Machinery And Mechanical Appliances; Electrical Equip 2,259 2,978 3,206 11,184 8,382 4,13817 Vehicles,Aircraft, Vessels And Associated Transport Equip 34 92 125 261 15 69218 Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring 0 8 2 481 0 019 Arms And Ammunition;Parts And Parts And Accessories 0 0 0 0 0 020 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 64 190 34 12,673 361 28921 Works Of Art,Collectors Pieces And Antiques 25 85 0 5 11 154TOTAL: 446,959432,754647,552 620,294 715,736564,946The decline in revenue for exports could beattributed mainly to the drop in export valuesbetween May and June 2004 of Textiles (K157,565million to K31,223 million), Preparedfoods/beverages (K65,525 million to K45,749 million)and vegetable products (K52,426 million to K33,301million). The share of these products to May exportswas about 38 percent; whereas in June theyaccounted for about 20 percent.Central Statistical OfficeZambia’s major trading partners during the periodMay to June 2004, were mainly from Africa - (SouthAfrica, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania andCongo DR); Europe (United Kingdom, Switzerland,Netherlands, Belgium, France and Finland). TheAsian trading partners include China, Japan, Taiwan,India and United Arab Emirates).Industrial ProductionConstruction in Zambia at All timeHigh!The construction industry in Zambia is currently atits highest performance since 2000. Non-MetallicMineral Production Sector as a supplier to theconstruction industry is used as a proxy formonitoring developments in the latter. Over a periodof four years the industry has registered a growth ofabout by 25 percent.Index140120100806040200Non-Metalic Mineral ProductionIndex, Zambia, 2000-2003100106.7 108.5124.52000 2001 2002 2003YearSource: CSO Industrial Production Statistics, 2004At the end of 2003 production in auxiliary industrieswas 15 percent higher than in 2002, 17 percenthigher than in 2001 and 25 percent higher than in2000. Production between January and March 2004was highest except between April and June of 2003,which recorded minimal levels.Percent302520151050Percent Growth in Non Metalic MineralProduction, Zambia, 2000-200315172002-2003 2001-2003 2000-2003YearSource: CSO Industrial Production Statistics, 200425Page 3

The MonthlyEstablishments in the Non-Metallic MineralProduction sector are involved in the production ofCement, Lime, Concrete Blocks and Pipes, Roof andFloor Tiles, Railway Sleepers and electric Insulators.PercentAnnualised Growth Rate (Percent), Non-MetalicMineral Production, 2000-20031614.78141210864206.651.742000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003YearCentral Statistical Officechildren Living with both parents in 2002 increasedonly by 0.1 percent over that of 1996 (61.5 percent).The trend analysis of children not living with bothparents who are still alive reveals that there has beena slight decline of 0.8 percent in 2002. The Datafurther reveals that there has been a decline in theproportion of children who do not know whethertheir parents are still alive or not from 1.2 percent in1996 to 0.9 percent in 2002. Another interestingobservation is that there has been an increase in theproportion of children who live with their motherwhile the father is dead from 5.1 percent in 1996 to6.1 percent in 2002. Whereas there has been a slightdecline in the proportion of children who live withtheir father while their mother is dead from 1.2percent in 1996 to 1.1 percent in 2002.Source: CSO Industrial Production Statistics, 2004A comparison of annual growth rates of the industryshows a decline of about 6.65 percent, and 1.74percent between 2001-2002, before registering thehighest growth rate of about 14.78 percent between2002-2003.The increase in production in this sector wasattributed to mechanisation and increase in demand.Since demand for products in this sector is from theconstruction industry, it follows therefore that;growth in the Non-Metallic Mineral ProductionSector is an indication of growth in Construction.Population andDemographyOnly Three-Fifths of Children Live WithBoth ParentsThe 2001/2002 Zambia Demographic and HealthSurvey reports that only 61.6 percent of childrenunder the age of 15 live with both parents, whileabout 38.6 percent do not live with both parents.The report also reveals that about 8.1 percent ofchildren do not live with their parents even thoughtheir parents are still alive. The majority of childrenlive with their mother while the father is alive butliving somewhere else (11.7 percent), while only 2.9percent live with their father while the mother isalive but living somewhere else. The Patterns havenot changed much since 1996. The percentage ofPercent706050403020100Children's Living Arrangements, Zambia, 1996and 2002LwBParentsLwMFAliveLwMFDeadLwFMAliveLwFMDeadNLwPBAliveNLwPFAliveNLwPMAliveNLwPBDeadDKPAlive1996 61.5 13.4 5.1 3.3 1.2 8.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.22002 61.6 11.7 6.1 2.9 1.1 8.1 1.9 2.9 2.9 0.9Source: Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS), 2002Key:LwBParentsLwMFAliveLwMFDeadLwFMAliveLwFMDeadNLwPBAliveNLwPFAliveNLwPMAliveNLwPBDeadDKPAliveLiving with both parentsLiving with mother father aliveLiving with mother father deadLiving with father mother aliveLiving with father mother deadNot living with parents both aliveNot living with parents father aliveNot living with parents mother aliveNot living with parents both deadDon’t know whether parents are still aliveChildren’s living arrangements at provincial level aresimilar even though there are variations in the levelsfrom one province to another. The report shows thatthe percentage of children living with both parents ishighest in Northern province (67.6 percent). It isclosely followed by Eastern province with 65.4percent and Copperbelt province (64.3 percent).Western province has the lowest percentage ofchildren living with both parents (50.7 percent)followed by Central and Southern provinces bothwith 58.0 percent. In all the provinces theproportions of children living with their mother whilethe father is alive but living somewhere else arehigher than those of children living with their fatherwhile the mother is alive but living somewhere else.Page 4

The MonthlyWestern province has the highest percentage ofchildren living with their mother while the father isalive (20.1 percent) followed by North-Western (13.7percent) and Southern (12.5 percent).Luapula province (10.3 percent) has the highestpercentage of children not living with parents both ofwhom are still alive. It is closely followed by Southernprovince with 10.0 percent. Northern province hasthe lowest with 5.2 percent.Percent80.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.0Children's Living Arrangements by Province,Zambia, 2001/2002Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Lusaka Northern N-Western Southern WesternLwBParents 58.0 64.3 65.4 62.6 60.0 67.6 59.8 58.0 50.7LwMFAlive 11.7 8.8 12.2 10.6 9.9 10.7 13.7 12.5 20.1LwFMAlive 2.5 3.3 1.9 2.0 3.4 1.6 3.8 3.0 5.2NLwPBAlive 8.8 7.3 8.2 10.3 8.6 5.2 9.0 10.0 7.4NLwPBDead 3.8 3.3 2.5 1.8 3.4 3.0 1.9 3.4 2.2Source: Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS), 2002HealthAntenatal visits increaseThe proportion of women attending ante-natalclinic has increased between 2000 and 2003.This has been due to the increase in the numberof women attending antenatal clinics in ruralareas, from 90.3 to 94.2 percent. That of urbanareas has marginally increased from 97.7 percentto 98.2 percent.Percentage10098969492908886Pregnant women attending ante-natalcare, Zambia 2002 and 200392.695.497.798.290.3Total Urban RuralResidence94.2Central Statistical OfficeAmong the women attending ante-natal clinics atleast once, 78.6% of urban females and 61.0% of ruralfemales were counselled for HIV/AIDS. Thisproportion in urban areas has increased by 16percentage points. In rural areas, the increase hasbeen larger (20 percentage points).Percent of Women100806040200Percent of Women Attending Antenatal CareCounselled for HIV, 2000 and 2003 ZSBS63417967 67612000 ZSBS 2003 ZSBSUrban Rural TotalSource: Zambia Sexual Behaviour Survey, 2002/3Of the rural females receiving HIV counselling, only8.3% were offered the test, while 37.1% of females inurban areas were offered an HIV test.Among those who received HIV counselling, 17.8%of urban females and 4.1% of rural females said theywere tested for HIV. With regards to receivingresults among those counselled, 16.3% of urbanfemales and 3.0% of rural females said they knewtheir test results.Percent of Women100806040200Percent of Antenatal Women Counselled for HIVwho were Offered and HIV Test, Tested for HIVand Know Test Results, 2003 ZSBS3781918169483Offered HIV Test Tested for HIV Know Test ResultsUrban Rural TotalSource: Zambia Sexual Behaviour Survey, 2002/32000 2003Source: Zambia Sexual Behaviour Survey, 2002/3Page 5

The MonthlyGeographicalInformation SystemWater Access in Petauke DistrictThe map (refer to page 9) shows the distribution ofhouseholds with access to safe water with waterpoints. Although the water point data is not in thesame state at the time of the census this map can playan important role in understanding the patterndepicted. Generally the southern part of the districtshows that households have low access to safe water(19 to 35 percent). These wards also have a highconcentration of households and open wells and nonfunctionalboreholes. Wards in the middle percentagerange of 35 to 52 percent have a relatively fairdistribution of working boreholes. On the other handthe high concentration of boreholes in the Chisanguward accounts for the high percentages of householdswith access to safe water in the ward and surroundingareas. The location of a refugee camp in this wardexplains the high density of boreholes in this area.Available at the CSO!!Central Statistical Office• Health with 51 Indicators• Environment with 4 Indicators• Education with 23 Indicators• Economy with 38 Indicators• Demography with 42 Indicators• Child Protection with 6 IndictorsSome indicators are available at the National,Provincial, District, Constituency, and Ward.Indicators are also available by Rural and Urban, andMale and Female among other desegregationcategories.Some Indicators are available for the period from1969 to 2003.The Layman andStatisticsFoster-Hood: Fostered Children are those who havea living parent or parents, but do not live with eitherof them. There are looked after by other peopleincluding relatives.Orphan-hood: Orphaned children are those whohave lost one or both parents. Children who have losttheir mother are referred to as maternal orphanswhile those who have lost their father are paternalorphans. Children who have lost both parents aresometimes referred to as double orphansZamSED 1.2!The Central Statistical Office now has available thesecond CD on the Zambia Socio-economic Database(ZamSED 1.2)The new database contains a total of 244 socioeconomicindicators compiled by the CSO and otherofficial sources of national statistics such as theMinistry of Health and Ministry of Education.The new database contains seven main sectors asfollows:• Agriculture with 80 IndicatorsThe Central Statistical Office in collaboration with theMinistry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is currentlyprocessing the 2003/4 Crop Forecasting Survey.The main objective of the survey is to obtain informationfrom farmers on the anticipated estimates of area undermajor crops, total production expected, and crop salesinformation during the season.This information is important in assessing the expectedfood security situation in the country and also in thecomputation of the National Food Balance Sheet, used todetermine whether the country has a surplus or deficit inmajor cereals and tubers.Results will be disseminated in August.Subscribe for your free electronic copy of “TheMonthly” online at www.zamstats.gov.zmPage 6