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Pros and Cons of Bayesian Pharmacometric Modeling Using BUGS

Pros and Cons of Bayesian Pharmacometric Modeling Using BUGS

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<strong>Bayesian</strong> modeling<strong>Bayesian</strong> modelingTwo distinguishing core notionsThe two core notions that distinguish <strong>Bayesian</strong> analysis are:1 Unknown quantities are represented as probability distributions,<strong>and</strong>2 A formal mechanism exists for combining prior knowledge <strong>and</strong>new data.(1) provides for rigorous quantitative description <strong>of</strong> uncertainty inmodel parameters <strong>and</strong> predictions.c○2009 Metrum Institute <strong>Bayesian</strong> <strong>Modeling</strong> <strong>Using</strong> <strong>BUGS</strong> AAPS 2009 2 / 26

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