Defence Forces Review 2010

Abstracts – 65 Senior Command and Staff CourseThe Operational Environment as Complex Adaptive System.How to Prepare and Use Generic Models for a Better SituationalUnderstandingLt Col Dirk Hunke. MA (German Army)ABSTRACTThe starting point for this thesis was the author’s involvement in experiments of systems theoryand systems analysis tools applied to military operational environments such as Afghanistan orKosovo. Within that context the research results on “Complex Adaptive Systems” – developedduring the 1990s for civilian applications – have been transferred as well. The aim was to findthe often hidden order in seemingly chaotic situations and to assess the changes in behaviourand internal organization they might undergo in order to better cope with their challenges. Theimpetus for the transfer to military applications was to use an appropriate analytical tool forthe perceived complexities of human conflict under the conditions of globalised media andglobal political, social and economic interdependencies. The difficulty in dealing with suchconflict scenarios from a systems analysis point of view is an abundance of mostly superficialinformation on one hand and a lack of insight into the underlying logics on the other hand.The thesis proposes the creation of a “model library” as guideline through the plethora ofinformation. “Models” in this context are explicit descriptions of social groups, individualactors and other relevant elements of a given topic plus their probable interactions withintheir respective system. The chosen case study on “insurgency” applies the Complex AdaptiveSystem construct onto a very old political, social and military challenge. Insurgency is anarmed rebellion against an established government aiming at its overthrow. It forms part ofmost conflicts where international forces were deployed to defuse the situation or to enforcecertain outcomes. It is closely related to themes like terrorism or irregular warfare. The casestudy uses several practical and generic descriptions of past insurgencies as backdrop. Systemsanalysis results from other authors and own attempts to capture their logic are compared. Theaspired result is an answer to the question whether these descriptions can be fused in such away that they deliver meaningful insights for new conflict situations.113