Index 365stock ownership, 279value investing, 276–77Business plan/growth by acquisition, ascompany-specific risk, 23Business Plan Score Scorecard, 110, 120,121, 303Busted Cash Burner analysis, 279Busted Cash Burner test, 305–7Busted cash burners, 279–80as bankruptcy candidates, 130cash burner analysis, 135–36cash flow, 133–34cash flow negative:and working capital negative,138and working capital positive,137–38cash flow positive:and working capital negative,136–37and working capital positive,136–37potential, detecting, 133–39working capital, 134–35comparing current assets to currentliabilities, 135current assets, 134current liabilities, 134Butler, Gregory, 124Buy-side analysts, 46, 47–48CCabot Microelectronics, 113CACI, 148Caliber Learning Network, 138Calico Commerce, 138California Pizza Kitchen, 254Callable bonds, 164Candidate stocks, finding, 4Capital expenditures, 339depreciation vs., 314–15Capital lease obligations, 337Capital leases, 337Capitalized software development costs,201Cardolite, 114Caremark Rx, 127Cash, 200–201Cash and equivalents, 200–201, 336Cash burner analysis, 135–36Cash burners, 205Cash flow, 6, 133–34, 199, 310–11, Seealso Operating cash flow(OCF)quarterly cash flow reports, 205Cash flow analysis, 199–205cash, 200–201dubious allocations, 201free cash flow, 203–5operating cash flow (OCF), using,202–3quarterly cash flow reports, 205working capital changes, 199–200Cash flow negativeand working capital negative, 138and working capital positive, 137–38Calico Commerce, 138DoubleClick, 138Cash flow positiveand working capital negative, 136–37and working capital positive, 136–37Cash flow statement, 225–28, 334, 338–40financing activities, 340investing activities, 339–40net change in cash, 340operating activities, 338–39red flags, 225–28Cash flows, 154Cash from operations, on cash flow statement,339Caterpillar, 149CBS MarketWatch, 260Cendent, 149Channel stuffing, 218–19Chart types, 246–47Checking the buzz, 7Chico’s FAS, 53, 148, 174–76, 203Christopher & Banks, 148, 203Church & Dwight, 193–96Cisco Systems, 52, 70, 100–101, 115,148–49, 171, 173, 201, 259,339–40E=SP formula, 170Citigroup, 101CNBC on MSN Money, xxivCNET.com, 55–56Coca Cola, 149, 171, 174Company and industry overview, 5Company-specific risks, 19–22business plan/growth by acquisition,23faltering growth/creative accounting,24financial health, 23high expectations, 24interest rate risk, 22litigation, 21
366<strong>Fire</strong> <strong>Your</strong> <strong>Stock</strong> <strong>Analyst</strong>!products on allocation, 20–21restatement of earnings, 21sector outlook, diminishment of, 22valuation, 24Compaq, 112Comverse Technology, 252, 256Concentrate on the strongest candidates(COSC), 4, 7, 264, 287–88,289Conference calls, 323–26Consensus ratings, 49–50Corporate bond ratings, 159–60COSC, See Concentrate on the strongestcandidates (COSC)Cost of sales, on income statement, 334Costco, 170–71, 172, 254Covad, 113Creative accounting, as company-specificrisk, 24Credit analysis, 144Credit Lyonnais, research reports, 64Current assets, 336Current liabilities, 337Current portion LT debt, 337Current ratio, 153Current yield, 163–64Current yield, bonds, 163–64Custom Screener (MSN Money), 28Customers, number of, 114–15CVS, 117Czinger, Kevin, 124DD&K Wholesale, 148Database software industry key performancemeasures, 103–4Days Sales Outstanding (DSOs), 218Debt and capital, 142–43, 156–57shares outstanding, 143total liabilities to total assets (TL/Aratio), 142working capital, 143Deferred income tax, 337Deferred revenue, on cash flow statement,339Deferred taxes, on cash flow statement,338Dell Computer, 104–7, 149, 203, 206–8,307Denominations, bonds, 163Depreciation, 178, 199, 206on cash flow statement, 338on income statement, 335Detailed analysis, 7–10analysis scorecards, 10of analyst’s data, 7–8business plan analysis, 9financial strength analysis, 9industry analysis, 8–9management quality, assessing, 9ownership considerations, 10price charts, 10profitability and growth analysis, 9red flags, detecting, 10target prices, establishing, 8valuation, 8Detailed Fiscal Fitness Exam, 279, 305Direction, market, 18–19Distribution model, 111–12, 276, 302Dividends, 77DoubleClick, 138Downtrends, 242avoiding, 245–46Drernan, David, 41DRS Technologies, 148Dubious allocations, 201Dynergy, 162EEarnings forecasts/trends, 290–91earning forecast trends, 292forecast earnings growth, 292Earnings growth:converting to sales growth, 98–99rate of, 74-75stability, and management quality,127Earnings per share (EPS), 170conversion to, 86estimating, 274, 298growth, 58on income statement, 335Earnings reports, 323–26analysts’ research, 326generally accepted accounting practices(GAAP), 325guidance, 325–26operating margin, 325pro forma, 324receivables/inventories, 325sales forecasts, 325Earnings surprise, 61–62history lessons, 61–62value vs. growth, 62eBay, 211EBITDA, 144, 146
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FINANCIAL TIMES PRENTICE HALL BOOKS
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Robin MillerThe Online Rules of Suc
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTSGuru Acknowledgments
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1THE ANALYSIS PROCESSExperts tell u
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3SCREENINGScreening is the most eff
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