------------------------------~·Water ComparedIndustries ComparedTrends in DemandI'IIDemand for telecommunications and energy services is rising both in aggregate and per capitaterms. Electricity demand has grown with the expanding array of electrical products. Theprojected growth in demand for natural gas is related directly to electricity restructuring andthe use of combined cycle turbines for managing peak demand. The growth intelecommunications generally tracks the rate ofpopulation growth. According to the FCC, "Withvirtually all businesses having telephone lines and morethan 90% of the nation's households having telephoneservice, the growth in the number of!ines tends to reflectgrowth in the general economy, which averages about 3%per year." 10 Even household energy usage appears to becreeping upward.DemandEfficiency and conservationare dampening waterdemand; opportunities forexpanding water marketsare limited.Such is not the case for water, where aggregate demand,per-capita demand (measured by total withdrawals divided by total population), andhousehold demand (residential use divided by residential customers) indicate stability anddetectable declines. According to the United State Geological Survey, the trends in water usein the latter part of the century can be attributed in part to the following factorsY'''oooDemands for irrigation water declined due to higher energy prices, improvedapplication techniques, increased competition for water, declines in farm commodityprices, and a downturn in the farm economy in the 1980s.Demands for industrial water declined due to new technologies requiring less water,improved plant efficiencies, increased water recycling, higher energy prices, theeconomic slowdown, and changes in laws and regulations to reduce the discharge ofpollutants. A related trend is that less water is being returned to the natural systemafter use.Demand in general has declined due to the enhanced public awareness of waterresource issues and active conservation programs in many states.Like other utility sectors, different types of demand affect the water utility's functional costs.Average-day demand drives the need for raw-water storage capacity. Maximum-day demanddrives the need for transmission lines, treatment facilities, and major feeder lines. Maximumhourdemand (maximum-day demand plus frre-flow requirements) drives the need fordistribution lines, pumping stations, and treated water storage. The role of fire-flowrequirements in the design and operation of water systems is important, and without clearanalogies in the other utility sectors.1° Federal Communications Commission, Trends in Telephone Service (Washington, DC: FCC, FederalCommunications Commission, March 1997): 24.11U.S. Geological Survey, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 1990 (Reston, VA: U.S. GeologicalSurvey, 1993).<strong>NAWC</strong> 28 September 1998
Water ComparedIndustries ComparedAs noted by the USGS, conservation also affects aggregate demand. Some forms ofconservation address average-day demand, while others address maximum-day demand; thisdistinction becomes important when considering if, and how, conservation might affectfacility requirements. The high ratio of fixed to variable costs in the water industry, as notedpreviously, means that reductions in demand through conservation usually require rateincreases in order for water utilities to cover fixed capital costs.1101009080II)...-c:70~.E 60.5 50II)CDc: 40:.:::i30-20100Number of Telephone Lines(1884 to 1996)--------~mcomom~---.....------------.-------LOm......com--+-- Residentialswitchedaccess lines-e- Businessswitchedaccess lines--specialAccess lines--+--Publicswitchedaccess-e-MobileswitchedaccessTelephone Dial-EquipmentMinutes and Calls(1980 to 1996)2,500 --,---------------------------Local dialequipmentminutes--+--Local calls~ 2,000 +---------------------=---...,-------=-----c: - _... -+-Interstate toll·E ___... _... dial-equipment5 1 ,500 ,... .......- minutes!!l-+-Intrastate toll~ dial-equipment0 1,000 minutes~ -~~~ill 5000a0com:-; : ;•=:•I I I ! ! ~ __.,_ Internationala • •minutes13 13 131313 El" ""..... N C') 'It U') co r-- co m 0 ..... N C') 'It U') co -&-Internationalco co co co co co co co co m m m m m m m0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> 0> calls..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....Note: Legends correspond to end-year graph values from top to bottom.<strong>NAWC</strong>29 September 1998