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Nacro's response to Breaking the Cycle Green Paper

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<strong>Breaking</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Cycle</strong>: Nacro’s <strong>response</strong> | 37<strong>to</strong> ensure that <strong>the</strong> right outcomes are achieved with offenders who present <strong>the</strong> highest risk.That said, it is important that any new commissioning arrangements do not detract from <strong>the</strong>successes of existing multi-agency public protection panel arrangements.Q26 What measurement method provides <strong>the</strong> best fit with <strong>the</strong> principles we haveset out for payment by results?Nacro agrees that <strong>the</strong> best measure of success relates <strong>to</strong> future convictions, police cautions orpenalty notices. We also consider a period of two years is required before sustained successcan be claimed. We would like <strong>to</strong> see a move <strong>to</strong>wards realising more than one social outcomewith <strong>the</strong> same set of interventions and would hope that this can be tested in current or futurepilot arrangements.Q27 What is <strong>the</strong> best option for measuring reoffending and success <strong>to</strong> support apayment-by-results approach?Nacro understands <strong>the</strong> desire for keeping <strong>the</strong> arrangements as simple and straightforward aspossible and this suggests <strong>the</strong> need for a binary measure: did <strong>the</strong> offender commit fur<strong>the</strong>r crimeor not? Indeed <strong>the</strong>re can be no doubt that <strong>the</strong> ultimate aim must be that offenders s<strong>to</strong>p offending.That said, Nacro knows that with some offenders <strong>the</strong> reality on <strong>the</strong> ground is very different.Progress is not necessarily a straight line and lapses do not always mean that <strong>the</strong> offender hasreturned <strong>to</strong> a life of crime. Very serious offending can be made less frequent. Very persisten<strong>to</strong>ffending can be made less frequent. Both of <strong>the</strong>se intermediate measures are positiveindica<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong>wards <strong>the</strong> right direction of travel. There are also reliable <strong>to</strong>ols at our disposalwhich allow for predicted versus actual reoffending by individuals and cohorts of offenders.

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