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30-fold growthin mobile traffic seen in a decadeVoice <strong>an</strong>d data traffic onmobile networks willgrow more th<strong>an</strong> 30-fold duringthe decade ahead, said <strong>an</strong>ew report.The total <strong>an</strong>nual traffic onmobile networks globallywill reach 127 EB (Exabytes)in 2020, representing a 33xincrease compared with the2010 figure, added the reporttitled “Mobile traffic forecasts2010-2020”, the UMTSForum, <strong>an</strong> open cross sector<strong>an</strong>d independent org<strong>an</strong>ization.The report also predicts thatgrowth will be stronger stillin Europe. During the sameperiod, the UMTS Forum estimatesthat mobile traffic ina typical <strong>We</strong>stern Europe<strong>an</strong>country will grow by 67xfrom 186 TB to 12,540 TBdaily – double the correspondinggrowth globally.In contrast with this explosivegrowth in data trafficduring the decade, the studypredicts that mobile voicetraffic growth will remain limitedduring the same period.Key trends <strong>an</strong>d drivers identifiedduring the study periodinclude:••••••Continuing growth intablets, dongles, smartphones,M2M <strong>an</strong>d otherconnected devices.Media rich social net-port<strong>an</strong>ce to become thedomin<strong>an</strong>t source of datatraffic via streaming <strong>an</strong>dworking is increasinglycrucial for mobile users,generating signific<strong>an</strong>ttraffic <strong>an</strong>d new consumptionpatterns.Video has grown in im-Je<strong>an</strong>-Pierre Bienaimédownloads. Consumptionof TV content is alsogenerating increasinglysignific<strong>an</strong>t data traffic onmobile networks.•• Small cells <strong>an</strong>d femtocellsare becoming the solutionsof choice to avoidnetwork congestion.The forecasted figuresrepresent a total of uplink<strong>an</strong>d downlink voice <strong>an</strong>d datatraffic tr<strong>an</strong>sported on mobilenetworks using licensedspectrum.While traffic m<strong>an</strong>aged byfemtocells is included in thestudy, the effects of Wi-Fioffload are explicitly not included.Similarly, the forecastdoes not take into accountRFID traffic or <strong>an</strong>y othertraffic carried over unlicensedradio frequency b<strong>an</strong>ds.This new report builds onprevious UMTS Forumstudies, taking account oftrends like smartphones <strong>an</strong>dsocial networking via mobile.Specifically, the forecastsaccords closely with a 27xincrease that was forecastedby the UMTS Forum in2005 – <strong>an</strong> era that precededsmartphones, app stores <strong>an</strong>dthe mass availability of 3G‘dongles’.“The report reflects everincreasingconsumer dem<strong>an</strong>dfor mobile broadb<strong>an</strong>d services,”said UMTS Forum chairm<strong>an</strong>Je<strong>an</strong>-Pierre Bienaimé.“These latest forecasts areof particular interest in thecontext of discussions aboutavailability of sufficient spectrumto support the continuinggrowth in dem<strong>an</strong>d formobile broadb<strong>an</strong>d services,”he added.The mobile traffic report wasoffered as a recent contributionby the UMTS Forumin the framework of globaltraffic forecasts conducted byITU-R <strong>an</strong>d CEPT/ECC. It willalso be offered as a key inputat the next World RadiocommunicationConferences(WRC-12 <strong>an</strong>d WRC-15/16)– the so-called ‘WirelessOlympics’, where regulationsgoverning the use ofradio-frequency spectrum arereviewed.“The ITU-R’s efforts in thepast on IMT spectrum <strong>an</strong>dtechnology <strong>have</strong> directlyenabled the global successof mobile broadb<strong>an</strong>d,” saidBienaimé.“<strong>We</strong> <strong>have</strong> also seen that harmonisedspectrum facilitateseconomies of scale, drivingdown pricing of mobile devicesfor consumers. Based onthese new traffic forecasts,further actions in the ITU-Rframework are now neededto meet traffic dem<strong>an</strong>d forthe next 10 years,” he concluded.TSAMENAevents inIslamabad<strong>an</strong>d QatarpostponedSAMENA TelecommunicationsCouncil has postponed its eventsscheduled to be held in Islamabad.According to <strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>nouncement madeby SAMENA the Broadb<strong>an</strong>d Summitwhich was to be held on 23-24 May inIslamabad Pakist<strong>an</strong> is postponed <strong>an</strong>drescheduled for date October 2011.However, no confirmed date is <strong>an</strong>nounced.Further, SAMENA convergenceto Qatar 2011, earlier scheduledfor 18-19 October has also been movedon 1st <strong>an</strong>d 2nd of November 2011. TDiesel used fortelecom towerscausing Rs 2.6Kcrloss to govtGlobal NGO Greenpeace said dieselconsumed by telecom comp<strong>an</strong>iesfor providing power at telecom towersis causing <strong>an</strong> estimated loss of Rs2,600 crore <strong>an</strong>nually to the governmentin form of subsidy."For telecom operators, there is arobust case to switch to renewableenergy. The government should notgive subsidy to telecom comp<strong>an</strong>ieson diesel. Subsidy makes sense if it isgiven to poor people of the country,"Abhishek Pratap, Senior Campaigner,Climate <strong>an</strong>d Energy, Greenpeace Indiasaid.The report released by the NGO isbased on research over informationavailable in public domain.It says at current growth rates, thesector would require 26 billion kilowattof electricity <strong>an</strong>d 3 billion litresof diesel by 2012 which will enh<strong>an</strong>cecarbon emission from the country tosignific<strong>an</strong>t level. T58 www.teletimesinternational.com15Jun - 14Jul 2011
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