Hydrogen and its competitors, 2004

Risø Energy Report 3Hydrogen in European and global energy systems 153costs prohibit the large-scale use of hydrogen at present.Significant cost reductions must be made in the comingyears before hydrogen can even come close to commercialisation.But what are the perspectives for hydrogen in the longterm? Will it eventually develop into a major energycarrier and displace significant amounts of oil? Thatdepends on two further questions:• Will the necessary technologies become available inthe medium to long term, at reasonably competitiveprices and with efficiencies that make them suitablesubstitutes for existing technologies?; and• Will it be possible to build the necessary hydrogeninfrastructure, and to harvest the energy resourcesneeded to fuel a worldwide hydrogen system?Progress in fuel cells carries high expectations. Fuel cellsfor portable and stationary applications should becomecommercially available within 5-10 years. Fuel cells fortransport will take longer and are not expected to becommercialised in another 10-15 years from now.However, there are still significant uncertainties in fuelcell development. A more pressing technological issue isthe development of ways to store hydrogen. At presentthere are a number of possible technologies, but nosingle solution stands out. The lack of a really goodstorage method is likely to hinder the large-scale take-upof hydrogen.Finally, some experts are worried that although individualhydrogen technologies may be acceptably efficient,the efficiency of the complete hydrogen chainmay turn out to be too low to be useful as the core of asustainable energy economy [1].The development of hydrogen systems is in line with theexisting trend towards decentralised and distributedenergy systems, which are expanding rapidly, especiallyin the USA. It does not make sense to transport hydrogenover long distances, so hydrogen should be an integralpart of a distributed energy system that in the longerterm is based mostly on renewable sources. In this way,hydrogen could stimulate the expansion of renewableenergy, especially in transport, and create a faster transitionto renewables than is currently anticipated withoutthe benefit of hydrogen.The infrastructure needed for a hydrogen economy isexpected to be technically feasible, though it will requiretremendous investment and research effort. The transitiontowards a comprehensive hydrogen-based energysystem, however, will be highly risky for the pioneers.Strong policy initiatives are required from the EU and itsMember States if the change to hydrogen is to take placeat a cost that is acceptable to the societies concerned.Looking ahead to 2050, it is possible to imagine threescenarios for producing hydrogen [10,11,12]: clean fossilfuels, safe nuclear power and renewable energy. In eachcase the efficiency of energy conversion would have tobe well above today's standards, to meet future globalincreases in energy consumption.In the clean fossil fuels scenario, hydrogen would begenerated from coal or oil. The resulting carbon dioxidewould be removed from the flue gas and disposed inaquifers or at the bottom of the ocean. The environ-Figure 2: Timeline for hydrogen production technologies [5].PhotochemicalBiomass Gasification (w/o or with CO 2 Sequestration)Electrolysis from Renewable ElectricityNuclear (Thermocycles)Electrolysis from Nuclear ElectricityElectrolysis from Fossil Fuel derived Electricity with CO 2 SeqReforming of Fossil Fuels (NG, Oil, Coal) with CO 2 SeqElectrolysis from Fossil Fuel derived ElectricityHydrogen from CoalHydrogen from OilDecentralised Small Natural Gas ReformingCentralised Natural Gas ReformingShort term (2010)Medium term (2015)Long term (>2025)■Hydrogen vehicle fuel production EU 2020: 2.3-20.6 billion Nm/a. (Source: HyNet scenarios)