Hydrogen and its competitors, 2004

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44Risø Energy Report 3Hydrogen for transport5.4135Power densitites1,8100901,6801,4706050403020100Current PFIAdvancedHybridICE-GasolineCurrentAdvancedHybridICE-DieselCurrentAdvancedHybridICE-CNGLH2 from NGICE-H2Battery (electricity from the net)FC (CH 2 from NG)FC (LH 2 from NG)FC (gasoline reforming)ElectricFC (H from Renewables)1,21,00,80,60,40,20,019971998199920002001■ WTT ■ TTW■ kW/l ■ kW/kgFigure 21: Overall CO 2 emissions from different fuels and engine types.WTT=well to tank, i.e. emissions incurred in extracting, refining anddistributing the fuel. TTW=tank to wheel, i.e. emissions created by thevehicle itself. CNG=compressed natural gas.Figure 22: Technical progress in power density and specific power forPEMFCs over the last decade.• demonstrate the durability of individual componentsand the complete system;• develop high-efficiency thermal, water, and airmanagement subsystems;• develop and put in place a suitable fuel infrastructure;and• solve the problem of hydrogen storage.The last point, storage, is the biggest research problemremaining in the development of hydrogen-poweredvehicles. Hydrogen's low density makes it difficult tostore sufficient amounts on board a vehicle to achieve auseful range without the container being too large or tooheavy.Currently, hydrogen must be either pressurised to severalhundred atmospheres or stored as a liquid at cryogenictemperatures. Neither of these options are appropriatefor normal road vehicles. There has therefore been muchresearch into new storage technologies such as carbonnanotubes and metal hydrides, both of which can theoreticallyhold large amounts of hydrogen safely in a relativelysmall space (see also Chapter 5.2). The difficulty ofthis research, however, is shown by the extremely lowlevel of patenting in this area.Market projections and cost targetsIt is difficult to predict the market share of fuel cells infuture transport applications, since a significant marketfor fuel cell vehicles cannot emerge until the currenttechnical and infrastructure challenges have beensolved. Fuel cells also have to compete with gasoline anddiesel ICE technologies, which also are improved continuously.Figure 23 combines the results of several studies to give aqualitative view of how fuel cell vehicle sales may grow.It is important to remember that estimates of the potentialmarket for fuel cells in the transport sector vary enormouslyin terms of both value and number. Uncertaintiesassociated with fuel cell technology are probablyresponsible for the fact that no such market studies havebeen published since 2002.A study by Allied Business Intelligence (ABI), not shownin Figure 23, predicts a market in the range $608,000-$1.2 million for fuel cell vehicles in the USA by 2010, anda global market of $1.5 million by 2011, accounting for2.7% of all new road vehicles. New regulatory incentivesor unexpected technical progress could increase theglobal market to $2.4 million, or 4.3% of all vehicles,according to ABI. The study suggests that the number ofvehicles produced could reach 800,000 by 2012.It is highly significant that METI, the Japanese Ministryof Economy, Trade and Industry, at the end of 2003announced that it forecasts an eventual total of 50,000fuel cell vehicles on Japanese roads. Also important is thefact that electric vehicles are already available for leasingfrom car manufacturers including Toyota, Honda,Nissan, DaimlerChrysler and Opel. 7Notwithstanding the different forecasts for growth rateand eventual market size, most experts believe that fuelcells will not enter the vehicle market in commercialnumbers until after 2015. The reason is because of thetime needed for testing, first in niche areas and then insmall fleets.Fuel cell vehicles also need to be supported by a distributioninfrastructure for hydrogen. At the start, with veryfew hydrogen vehicles on the market, refuelling stations7. Toyota, for example, leases its FCHV4 vehicle at $10,000 per month.
Risø Energy Report 3Hydrogen for transport 455.4Test Phase 2000-2010Niche Production2010-2015Market Penetration2015-2020Consolidation2020-2025MITI-2003-50.000F. & S.-2001-5000FROST &SULLIVAN-2001900.000-1.000.000F. & S.-2001-500NOMURA-20002.500-5.000NOMURA-200010.000-100.000TEXACO-2000150.000-700.000TEXACO-20007.500-40.000Honda &Toyota fleets2000 2003 20052010 2015 2020 2025■Hydrogen Infrastructure options■ Centralized NG reforming and pipeline distributions ■ Delivery with LH, truck ■ Small NG on site reforming + Small electrolyzerFigure 23: Many studies have tried to predict the growth of fuel cell vehicles, but uncertainty surrounding the technological problems still to be solvedhas yielded a wide range of answers - and no new market studies since 2002.generating their own hydrogen from natural gasreforming or electrolysis would be the best option. As thenumber of hydrogen vehicles increases, liquid hydrogenmay be distributed to filling stations by road tanker.Eventually, when the market matures some time after2020, centralised steam reforming of natural gas anddistribution by pipeline may become economic.Turning to costs, the US Department of Energy has estimatedthat light-duty fuel cell vehicles will be commerciallyviable by 2015-2020 provided that:• advances in technology allow hydrogen vehicles to bemanufactured in volumes of over 500,000 units a year;• fuel cell costs fall to $45/kW for a 50-kW unit (i.e. aunit cost of $2,250);Figure 24: Fiat Seicentohydrogen fuel cell car(phase 2).Dynamic air compressor 2.5kWFuel Cell StackPEM Nuvera 20kWCompressedHydrogen Tank68 l @ 350 barHeatExchangersPanasonic batteryNi-Meh 144v-900WhMain characteristics:• Hybrid configuration (FC-Battery): Load Follower• Payload:4 persons• Acceleration 0-50 km/h:8 s• Max velocity:120 km/h• Grade ability fully loaded: 20%• Refuelling time:
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Hydrogen and its competitors, 2004

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