Final Report - Volume 1 - the South Wales Police Federation

Independent Review of Police Officer and Staff Remuneration and Conditions – Final Report1.1.4 Other research studies have indicated that the most important factor is not how many policeofficers a force has, but how they are deployed. For example, Braga found that geographicallytargetedpolicing of ‘hot spot’ areas reduced crime with only limited displacement of crime toother areas 5 . Similarly, a study by the Home Office found that neighbourhood policing had thepotential to reduce crime when it is properly implemented, including visible and locally knownofficers on foot patrols concentrated on the most appropriate areas 6 . Both of these tacticsrequire a degree of flexibility and workforce planning in the deployment of visible officers onthe frontline.1.1.5 Crime is unlikely to be the only driver of demand for policing in the future. The police servicemakes periodic projections of the external challenges which it is likely to face in the shortto medium-term. The NPIA produces an annual ‘National Strategic Assessment’ on behalfof ACPO. The 2010 document was used in Part 1 to ensure that the proposed Expertise andProfessional Accreditation Allowance (EPAA) was targeted at the right skills, namely thepolicing functions that deal with public protection, violent crime, drugs, terrorism and publicdisorder 7 . It is important, as far as possible, to predict accurately what the future challengesare likely to be. It is also necessary to develop a system of pay and conditions that will besufficiently flexible to cope with changes in the needs of the police service for skills andcapabilities.1.1.6 For the medium to long-term, the police service must rely upon the work of the NPIA andits successor. The NPIA’s Policing People Strategy 2008 - 2013 8 recommended a ten-yearworkforce plan and it commissioned the Work Foundation to produce a report on futurepolicing scenarios, which was published in 2009 9 . The report projected three very differentinternational, political, economic and social landscapes by 2020. These ranged from afragmented and unaffordable drive for localised public services, to a case where global cooperationhas left the public services of the United Kingdom almost irrelevant. The reportdemonstrated the possible opportunities and threats that the police service would need toaddress in developing a ten-year workforce model. However, its analysis is arguably too highlevelto be meaningful for most police force-level demand planning.1.1.7 A further report by the Work Foundation built upon those scenarios and recommended thatthe police service and the Government needs to develop a long-term strategy and vision forpolicing. The Work Foundation said:“The nature of much police activity is highly responsive to short and medium termdemands. It may therefore be counter-cultural for policing to think in terms of a longterm vision, with a more natural preference to remain responsive to the changingexternal context” 10 .1.1.8 It is certainly true that the police service is a public service with a duty to respond toemergencies, and that it cannot choose its customers. However, the report identified otherprivate and public sector organisations with similar pressures that are able to spend time andresources predicting their future demands, for example the National Health Service and thearmed forces. Therefore, the Work Foundation argued that the police service could, and should,engage in a more sophisticated demand planning process.Consultation1.1.9 The review’s consultation document, published on 16 June 2011, included the question:5 Effects of hotspots policing on crime, A. Braga, Campbell Collaboration, 20076 An evaluation of the impact of the National Reassurance Policing Programme, R. Tuffin, J. Morris and A. Poole, HomeOffice Research Series 26, London, 20067 National Strategic Assessment, ACPO, London, April 2010, page 108 A People Strategy Framework for Policing in England and Wales 2008 – 2013, NPIA, London, July 2008, page 459 Future Policing Scenarios: A Report Prepared for the National Policing Improvement Agency – Insight Programme Team,The Work Foundation, London, December 2009, page 410 Workforce Planning Review: A Report Prepared in Partnership with the National Policing Improvement Agency InsightProgramme Team, The Work Foundation, London, February 2010, page 3246