Final Report - Volume 1 - the South Wales Police Federation

Independent Review of Police Officer and Staff Remuneration and Conditions – Final ReportFigure 1.4Office for Budget Responsibility projections of Public Sector Net Debtas a percentage of GPD, from 2010 to 2061105Percentage of GDP958575PSND(July 2011 forecast)PSND(November 2011 forecast)65552010-20112013-20142016-20172019-20202022-20232025-20262028-20292031-20322034-20352037-20382040-20412043-20442046-20472049-20502052-20532055-20562058-2059Financial yearSource: Office for Budget Responsibility1.3.8 These financial forecasts indicate that public sector finances will be under considerablepressure for the foreseeable future and not just the period of the Government’s current spendingreview until 2015/16. Therefore, it should not be assumed that central Government policeservice grant will return to pre-2009 levels for some considerable time.1.3.9 The effects of lower central Government policing grant settlements could be offset by policeand crime commissioners using their powers to raise additional money by increasing the localprecept. The precept is the amount raised for policing by local council tax. However, thispossibility may, at least to some appreciable extent, be more theoretical than real, especially ata time when citizens are experiencing considerable financial pressures themselves. Increases inlocal taxation may be politically unfeasible, at least for the foreseeable future.1.3.10 For these reasons, it should be assumed that any increases in the central policing grant will belower over the next 30 years than they were over the 30 years since the Edmund-Davies report.Indeed, there may need to be further reductions in spending. Chief Constables will almostcertainly need a materially different set of financial and workforce tools to enable them tooperate within their resource allocations for the next 30 years.1.4 Social1.4.1 The future demographics of the population from which the police must draw their recruits isalso a significant consideration in the long-term reform of police pay and conditions. If therecommendations of this review are implemented, the resulting reforms have the potential tolast for the next 20 to 30 years. The health and longevity of the population from which thefuture workforce may be drawn have implications beyond simply the composition of pensionarrangements. They include the health and fitness of police officers and staff, and thereforetheir ability to protect the public.1.4.2 As discussed in Chapter 5, the public expects the police service to be physically fit. Thereis currently a fitness assessment as part of the recruitment procedures for officers. However,obesity is an increasing problem. For example, the proportion of males over 30 in England who52