World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Nowcasting - WMO

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20 121 P2.8 Poster Session 1 Monday and Tuesday (Grand Foyer) Chair: George Isaac and Paul Joe Aviation TREND and TAF short-range visibility forecasts and their verification for aerodromes of Lithuania Ms Regina Cepaityte MSc Head of Aviation Meteorology Centre P1.1 Assimilation of dual-polorimetric radar observations and its impact on short-term rainfall forecast of two convective systems Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service P1.2 P1.3 P1.4 P1.5 P1.6 P1.7 P1.8 Xuanli Li , John R. Mecikalski Development of radar data assimilation using 3DVAR in X-Net: radar network Shingo Shimizu,Takeshi Maesaka,Seiichi Shimada, Ryohei Misumi, Koyuru Iwanami,Masayuki Maki,Tadashi Yamada High resolution Regional Model (HRM) performance in now casting and very short range forecasting in Pakistan Ata Hussain Very short-time quantitative precipitation forecasting using X-band polarimetric radar and C-band conventional radar Atsushi Kato Heuristic probabilistic nowcasting of orographic precipitation Luca Panziera, Urs Germann Variationally based nowcasting utilizing radar reflectivities Martin Ridal, Magnus Lindskog, Nils Gustafsson, Guenter Haase Circulation detection and tracking with Doppler velocity derivatives Travis M. Smith, V. Lakshmanan, K. L. Elmore, K. L. Ortega, K. Hondl A numerical Case Study on the Evolution of Hail Cloud and the Three- Dimensional Structure of Supercell Xiu-Ming Wang Despite high level the aviation development, visibility (<strong>Meteorological</strong> Optical Range MOR) remains a factor of great importance in all ordinary aircraft operations, both civil and military. A pilots increasing interest in visibility (MOR) is explained by the fact that the MOR often changes rapidly (particularly in radiation fog). There are 4 international aerodromes operating in Lithuania, one of them military. Fog recurrence at these aerodromes is distributed unevenly over the year. The situation varies during a day as well as over a very short period (from 1 to 30 min). This is because fogs are very sensitive to local influences. Both topography and conditions on the ground are factors responsible for the local nature of many radiation fogs. They may cover a large area, but usually are more localized*. And this amounts to a problem for aeronautical forecasters in Lithuania - not merely to predict a MOR in their TREND and TAF forecasts, but also to verify them following strict ICAO Annex 3 requirements an equally important task. The objectives of this presentation are the following: To demonstrate and evidence a jumpy changeability of the meteorological visibility during a very short period and over a very limited area (on runways of the aerodromes of international airports in Lithuania) To raise an issue of the verification of short-range aeronautical forecasts in accordance with ICAO Annex 3, Attachment (unfortunately, these requirements are uniform for entire world, though they should not) To present proposals concerning observations and their verification for meteorologists consideration. P1.9 Sensitivity Analysis of Radiation Fog Under Different Synoptic Conditions Xiaojing Zhang, Luc Musson-Genon, Bertrand Carissimo, and Eric Dupont P1.10 Fine-Scale Road Stretch Forecasting Alexander Mahura , Claus Petersen, Bent Sass, Kai Sattler P2.9 A New Approach in Radar Information Presentation for Forecasters in Cuba P1.11 Influences of different soil moisture conditions upon South Atlantic convergence zone associated precipitation forecasting performed by a regional model Ana Carolina Nóbile Tomaziello, Adilson Wagner Gandu Orlando L. Rodriguez [1], Wilfredo J. Pozas [1], Jorge L. Perez [1], Albio Barreiras [1] [1] Centro de Radares. Instituto de Meteorología de Cuba P1.12 The Design and Implementation of B08FDP Data Support System WANG Yubin, YU Dongchang, SU Debin, ZHOU Haiguang, ZHOU Yong, LIANG Feng P1.13 Storm Series Algorithms in the SWIFT and applications during the “B08FDP” Hu Sheng, Liang Qiaoqian, Wang Ying, Zeng Qin, Feng Yerong P1.14 A composite approach of radar echo extrapolation based on radar-derived vectors in combination with model-predicted winds Liang Qiaoqian, Feng Yerong, Zeng Qin, Hu Sheng, Wang Ying P1.15 A Bayesian Hierarchical Particle Filter model for storm cell motion forecasting Neil Fox, Yong Song, Christopher K. Wikle P1.16 Quality Control of Aircraft Moisture Soundings Seth Gutman and David Helms P1.17 Retreival of Temperature from the Whistler V10 Gondola-Sonde Paul Joe, Vincent Fortin There are 8 operational weather radars in Cuba, so Cuban archipelago is well covered by overlapping radars umbrellas. This fact suggested a new approach to deliver radar information to forecasters in provincial centers. We made a WEB site presenting not individual radar images, but Mosaics of overlapping radars. This way forecasters can stay abstracted about which radar is working or not. Any available radar information over his province will be WEB posted in the Mosaic of his province. Besides the Mosaics, forecasters have comments from at least two radar operators about his province Mosaic. This new way of presenting radar information has demonstrated to be very usefull in local forecast.
120 P2.7 Studying on How to Maximize Users Benefits from a Case of Failure Downburst Forecast P1.18 Utilization of Radar-based Precipitation Forecasts for Improvement of Hydrological Forecasts Petr Novák, Lucie Březková, Petr Frolík, Zbyněk Sokol, Hana Kyznarová Xun Li [1], Yingchun Wang [1], Qian Ye [2], Deping Ding [1] P1.19 Storm severity nowcasting by real-time return period imaging [1] Beijing <strong>Meteorological</strong> Bureau, China [2] Consortium for Capacity Building, University of Colorado, USA During Beijing Olympic Games, 2008, Beijing <strong>Meteorological</strong> Bureau (BMB) fulfilled the Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) approved by WWRP SSC. A famous resort of Beijing, the Summer Palace was quantitatively evaluated with the product of downburst of SWIRLS (Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized System) developed by Hong Kong Observatory. The summer Palace has high demands on the accuracy of downburst forecast, especially on the beginning time of its occurrence and its location. Although SWIRLS had considerably good performance over the whole period of investigation, there was one forecast on Aug. 14, 2008 was failure while an unexpectedly downburst hit right at Summer Palace, which led to Tourists injury and caused great losses. In this paper, starting from this event, the applications of new technology, the needs of end user and process of decision-making are analyzed in detail. Furthermore, a new model associated with the benefit evaluation is theoretically raised. To meet the end users need, the emphases of model are shifted on the communication and application of forecast. As a result, some suggestions are prompted on how to maximize end users benefits and how to minimize the uncertainty of forecast. Key words: downburst, users need, maximum benefit, uncertainty of forecast. Maarten Reyniers, L. Delobbe, P. Dierickx, M. Thunus, C. Tricot P1.20 Analysis of Convective Cells and Lightning using Tracking Methods Pekka Rossi, Vesa Hasu, Antti Makela, Elena Saltikoff P1.21 A Real Time Data Quality Control Tool based on a Variational Approach Reinhold Steinacker, Dieter Mayer, Stefan Sperka P1.22 Regional Multiple Doppler Radar Synchronization Control Strategy and Its Operational Realization Debin Su, Jianyun Zhang, Paul Joe, Chian Zhang, Yubin Wang, Dongchang Yu, Bo Shen P1.23 Quantitative precipitation nowcast for real-time application in flood risk management Tanja Winterrath, Wolfgang Rosenow, Thomas Reich P1.24 Development of MCS and Convective Storm Nowcasting Technique and MCS Climatology in China Using Geostationary Satellite and Radar Data Yongguang Zheng , HAN Lei, WANG Hongqing P1.25 The development of fuzzy-logical Stepped ground clutter detection algorithm Wei Zhuang, Liping Liu, Debin Su, Paul Joe P1.26 Nowcast Performance in the WWRP 2008 Beijing Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project Elizabeth Ebert, John Bally, Mingxuan Chen, Bill Conway, Yerong Feng, Paul Joe, Alan Seed, Jim Wilson, Wai-kin Wong, Jishan Xue, Linus Yeung P1.27 Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over elevated terrains in West Africa Cyprian U. Okoloye, Wassila Thiaw, Vadlamani Kumar 21
Page 1 and 2: 140 World
Page 3 and 4: 138 3 Programme George Isaac: Chair
Page 5 and 6: 136 5 Welcome participants to the I
Page 7 and 8: 134 SESSION 1: Olympic Nowcasting (
Page 9 and 10: 132 P2.27 Comparison of nowcasting
Page 11 and 12: 130 P2.24 Nowcast of the Rainstorm
Page 13 and 14: 128 P2.20 Nowcast of the Rainstorm
Page 15 and 16: 126 P2.17 Automatic procedures and
Page 17 and 18: 124 P2.14 15:00 7.7 The network of
Page 19: 122 P2.10 Systematic variation of D
Page 23 and 24: 118 P2.5 Impact Analysis on Forecas
Page 25 and 26: 116 a map where this nowcasting exp
Page 27 and 28: 114 same quantities, where the uniq
Page 29 and 30: 112 1.7 P1.25 The development of fu
Page 31 and 32: 110 P1.22 Regional Multiple Doppler
Page 33 and 34: 108 1.11 P1.19 Storm severity nowca
Page 35 and 36: 106 location in close proximity to
Page 37 and 38: 104 technique of TREC, and storm lo
Page 39 and 40: 102 implementation of the methods a
Page 41 and 42: 100 P1.8 A numerical Case Study on
Page 43 and 44: 98 Very short-time quantitative pre
Page 45 and 46: 96 POSTER SESSION 1 P1.1 Assimilati
Page 47 and 48: 94 47 3.7 8.9 THE GOES-R SATELLITE
Page 49 and 50: 92 8.6 Progress Toward Satellite-ba
Page 51 and 52: 90 3.12 8.2 Translating Ensemble We
Page 53 and 54: 88 7.7 The network of EUMETCast sta
Page 55 and 56: 86 7.5 An Operational Perspective f
Page 57 and 58: 84 provide guidance on the types of
Page 59 and 60: 82 (fingerprint) in the analysis pr
Page 61 and 62: 80 4.5 6.8 Towards the Blending of
Page 63 and 64: 78 6.6 Impact of local observations
Page 65 and 66: 76 4.10 Nowcasting flash floods in
Page 67 and 68: 74 5.10 The 0-8 Hour Collaborative
Page 69 and 70: 72 optionally be applied through so

World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Nowcasting - WMO

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