World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Nowcasting - WMO
World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Nowcasting - WMO
World Meteorological Organization Symposium on Nowcasting - WMO
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a map where this nowcasting expert is pointing out the regi<strong>on</strong>s where severe weather could<br />
form, with an anticipati<strong>on</strong> of 12-24 hours, and a short text explaining the map. The language<br />
used in this text is a technical <strong>on</strong>e, as the product is not for the large public but rather an<br />
internal guide to help the forecaster. This product has been elaborated daily during the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>vective seas<strong>on</strong> (May-September) since 2006 and was posted <strong>on</strong> an intranet available for<br />
all the forecasters in the country. This product has been verified against the precipitati<strong>on</strong><br />
measurements at ground stati<strong>on</strong>s. The first c<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong> was that this forecast enhanced<br />
str<strong>on</strong>gly the skills of the nowcasting expert in searching the worse scenario, the forecasts<br />
being better and better even if the models were the same. We plan to use this experiment for<br />
training new forecasters in finding the needle in the hay stack.For this year we detailed this<br />
forecast for the electrical activity of the storms, the main cause of deaths from meteorological<br />
reas<strong>on</strong>s in Romania. We also verify these forecast against lightning data. The paper will<br />
present these results.<br />
products in a user-friendly manner. Expert domain knowledge present within the WWRP<br />
B08FDP teams was also transferred to local champi<strong>on</strong>s and BMB forecasters through<br />
researcher-forecaster interacti<strong>on</strong>s during the Intensive Dem<strong>on</strong>strati<strong>on</strong> Period (1-24 August,<br />
2008). Impact Studies. 3-year surveys were c<strong>on</strong>ducted with different end users of<br />
nowcasting products (i.e. forecasters, decisi<strong>on</strong> makers, citizens, foreigner tourists and<br />
commercial users) to estimate the impacts of project implementati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> improving nowcast<br />
services for Beijing Olympics. Acknowledgment: This project was c<strong>on</strong>ducted with the direct<br />
and indirect support of many agencies and individuals. The BMB/CMA, as host, provided<br />
great <strong>on</strong>going and infrastructure support for the FDP and many individuals c<strong>on</strong>tributed much<br />
to ensure the projects success. Special thanks go to BMB/CMA staffs: Pu Xie, Yingchun<br />
Wang, Debin Su, Li Bo, Xiaoding Yu, et al. and internati<strong>on</strong>al participants: Linus Yeung,<br />
Waikin W<strong>on</strong>g, K.Y. Chang, Jenny Sun, Rita Roberts, Yer<strong>on</strong>g Feng, Linda Anders<strong>on</strong>-Berry,<br />
T<strong>on</strong>y Bannister, Barbara Brown, Bill Kuo, Zhaoch<strong>on</strong>g Lei.<br />
1.3<br />
P2.3 Overview, Observati<strong>on</strong>s and Implicati<strong>on</strong>s of the B08 FDP Forecast Process<br />
Verificati<strong>on</strong> and analysis of DMI-HIRLAM NWP precipitati<strong>on</strong> forecasts using weather<br />
radar and satellite data<br />
Paul Joe [1], Feng Liang [2], Jim Wils<strong>on</strong> [3], Jianjie Wang [2], John Bally [4], Beth Ebert [4],<br />
Debin Su [2]<br />
Thomas Bøvith, Claus Petersen, Rashpal S. Gill, Kristian Pagh Nielsen, Bent Hansen Sass [1] Envir<strong>on</strong>ment Canada [2] China <str<strong>on</strong>g>Meteorological</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agency/Beijing <str<strong>on</strong>g>Meteorological</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bureau [3]<br />
Danish <str<strong>on</strong>g>Meteorological</str<strong>on</strong>g> Institute<br />
Nati<strong>on</strong>al Center for Atmospheric Research [4] Centre for Australian Weather and Climate<br />
Research<br />
Traditi<strong>on</strong>ally, precipitati<strong>on</strong> forecasts from numerical weather predicti<strong>on</strong> (NWP) models are<br />
verified using point measurements of precipitati<strong>on</strong> by rain gauges. In recent years, however,<br />
The ensemble of B08 FDP systems created a prototypical nowcast office of the future<br />
NWP model resoluti<strong>on</strong> has increased to levels where rain gauge networks do not provide<br />
including advanced sensing systems and telecommunicati<strong>on</strong>s, data quality c<strong>on</strong>trol, automatic<br />
optimal data input for verificati<strong>on</strong>. This motivates the use of data from weather radars, which<br />
data and product processing, interactive nowcast producti<strong>on</strong> systems and display systems to<br />
have the ability to resolve precipitati<strong>on</strong> patterns at a high spatial resoluti<strong>on</strong>, and multispectral<br />
provided very specific and tailored weather services. C<strong>on</strong>siderable effort was made to create<br />
satellite sensors, which provide good separati<strong>on</strong> between cloudy and cloud-free areas. This<br />
an end (data) to end (forecast operati<strong>on</strong>s) to end (end users) system in a relatively short<br />
work aims at verifying and analysing the precipitati<strong>on</strong> forecasts of the high-resoluti<strong>on</strong> DMI-<br />
period of time. The forecasting and decisi<strong>on</strong>-making c<strong>on</strong>cepts and processes evolved<br />
HIRLAM model by comparis<strong>on</strong> with weather radar data and multispectral satellite data. The<br />
throughout the development of the project. The forecast process refers to the steps taken,<br />
DMI-HIRLAM-S05 model is run every 6 h <strong>on</strong> a 0.05° horiz<strong>on</strong>tal grid and provides rainfall<br />
including the use of the nowcast systems, the resulting products, the discussi<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
estimates of both stratiform and c<strong>on</strong>vective precipitati<strong>on</strong>. Different methods for forecast<br />
interacti<strong>on</strong>s, that result in either forecast or user decisi<strong>on</strong>s. The BMB forecast team would<br />
verificati<strong>on</strong> are used to quantify the skill of the NWP model in forecasting rainfall in<br />
prepare for the day through a series of forecast briefings. The FDP team would participate in<br />
comparis<strong>on</strong> with rainfall estimates based <strong>on</strong> observati<strong>on</strong>s from a network of C-band weather<br />
the briefings and would have their own debriefs/briefings whenever there was new<br />
radars. The expected results of this work is 1) evaluati<strong>on</strong> of the usefulness of DMI-HIRLAM<br />
informati<strong>on</strong> - every few hours in the pre-storm scenario and as frequently as 15-20 minutes<br />
forecasts as input to a precipitati<strong>on</strong> nowcasting system and 2) better verificati<strong>on</strong> of DMI-<br />
during severe weather. Informati<strong>on</strong> between the two teams was c<strong>on</strong>veyed via automated<br />
HIRLAM precipitati<strong>on</strong> forecasts and documentati<strong>on</strong> of changes in the forecasting skill in<br />
web products, manual override of these products, a blog or direct interacti<strong>on</strong> - the FDP team,<br />
c<strong>on</strong>necti<strong>on</strong> with changes to the NWP model set-up (the upcoming DMI-HIRLAM-E03 model,<br />
through daily champi<strong>on</strong>s, could interrupt the BMB team or vice versa. The process was very<br />
e.g., features a horiz<strong>on</strong>tal grid resoluti<strong>on</strong> of 0.03°).<br />
dynamic as c<strong>on</strong>fidence, experience developed and evolved in the systems, in each other and<br />
in the situati<strong>on</strong>. Preceding the period of the Olympics, there was an extensive training<br />
program <strong>on</strong> the systems and the local weather. C<strong>on</strong>siderable insight was experienced and<br />
gained about the systems, the products, the process, the nature of decisi<strong>on</strong>-making that<br />
could be articulated which has str<strong>on</strong>g implicati<strong>on</strong>s for the future role of the forecaster. These<br />
insights included the status and role of automati<strong>on</strong>, the design of products, the role of training<br />
in the implementati<strong>on</strong> of a nowcast service, the need for diagnostics, the need for radar data<br />
assimilati<strong>on</strong> in high-resoluti<strong>on</strong> models, the role of ensemble and probabilistic products, the<br />
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