Projections Dataset and Methodology

Exhibit 5 (next page) summarizes the regional forecast of numbers of households by household income. Additional
detail on the five localities in the study area can be found in Section 9.
Exhibit 5: Regional Households by Household Income by Household Size Forecasts
Year Income 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Or-More Total
Less Than $24,999 5,799 2,653 1,210 1,365 11,027
$25,000-$49,999 6,883 5,786 2,619 3,507 18,795
2010 $50,000-$74,999 4,158 6,870 3,557 6,075 20,659
$75,000 Or More 4,361 19,916 13,376 23,909 61,561
Totals 21,201 35,225 20,762 34,855 112,042
Less Than $24,999 7,164 3,068 1,452 1,476 13,160
$25,000-$49,999 8,657 6,838 3,199 3,867 22,562
2020 $50,000-$74,999 5,373 8,411 4,544 7,031 25,359
$75,000 Or More 6,503 29,080 20,390 33,082 89,054
Totals 27,697 47,396 29,585 45,456 150,135
Less Than $24,999 8,245 3,016 1,378 1,331 13,969
$25,000-$49,999 10,279 6,928 3,129 3,613 23,948
2030 $50,000-$74,999 6,654 9,006 4,682 6,869 27,210
$75,000 Or More 10,501 41,615 28,180 44,218 124,513
Totals 35,678 60,564 37,367 56,030 189,640
Less Than $24,999 8,287 2,568 1,155 1,083 13,094
$25,000-$49,999 10,646 6,062 2,679 3,025 22,412
2040 $50,000-$74,999 7,106 8,229 4,151 5,890 25,377
$75,000 Or More 16,012 54,700 36,137 55,969 162,817
Totals 42,051 71,560 44,122 65,967 223,699
3.2 Economic Data
a. Control Forecasts of Total Employment
The total employment control forecasts by locality used for future allocation to the TAZ level were developed
initially by Parsons Brinkerhoff (PB) as consultants to FAMPO and GWRC. The final PB projection report is included
Section 7. Following PB’s completion of the forecast series, GWRC staff found it necessary to adjust the 2010 base
year estimates (see “Manual Adjustments for Military Installations”, page 12) as well as make other relatively-minor
adjustments to certain local sector forecasts.
See Section 9, Exhibit 4, page 33 for comparison between control forecasts produced by Parsons Brinkerhoff and the
GWRC-revised forecast.
Exhibit 6. Total Employment Estimate (2010) and Control Forecast (2020-2040)
Locality 2010 2020 2030 2040
Caroline County 9,902 12,270 14,640 17,460
King George County 16,241 19,360 22,480 25,700
Spotsylvania County 45,376 52,620 59,870 70,170
Stafford County 46,929 57,500 70,180 84,140
Fredericksburg City 31,491 39,640 47,780 54,820
PD 16 Total 149,939 181,390 214,950 252,290
FAMPO 2040 Long-Range Transportation Plan: Socio-Economic Data Element 18